Federal Government Partial Shutdown: The Dems have the upper hand — it’s only a matter of time before the House passes a relatively/completely clean CR, continuing resolution. At some point, the GOP leadership will have to put on the House floor something that 20-40 Republicans strongly oppose but can pass with Dem votes (many more Republicans may vote against the clean CR, but will be privately grateful the shutdown will end). The House Republican leadership believes, rightly in our view, that Republicans are nearly certain to lose the public relations battle in a shutdown confrontation. As a result, the GOP capitulation on the CR will come sooner rather than later…
Goldman: [GS] BOTTOM LINE: A partial shutdown of the federal government now looks fairly likely, though there is still a chance for Congress to avert it. Assuming a shutdown lasted only a few days, the macroeconomic consequences would be modest.
Chatter Fed Chairman – Yellen decision pushed back a week. william_blount added, the babe from BERKELEY doesn’t need to be flung into the middle of the current dance between parties yet.
Yawner of a tweet: Had a cordial dinner with Tim [AAPL] last night. We pushed hard for a $150 billion buyback. We decided to continue dialogue in about three weeks. — Carl Icahn.
Today started with 280k ESZ and 1.1k SPZ traded on Globex, SPZ trading range was 1684.00 – 1676.20. Monday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), SPZ pit session trading range was 1680.90 – 1667.00 before settling at 1674.30, down 12.1 handles. In Asia, 9 of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp. up 0.68%, Hang Seng down 1.50%, Nikkei up 0.20%. In Europe, 8 out of 12 markets were trading higher: DAX up 0.62%, FTSE down 0.19%.
PivotBoss (08:06) For ES: The early range to watch for directional conviction is 1676 to 1684. Above 1684 has ADR bull targets at 1687.75 and 1691.75, and below 1676 has bear targets at 1672.50 and 1668.50. For CL: Watch 102.60 and 101.90 for early directional conviction in Crude today. Above 102.60 has ADR bull targets at 103.27 and 103.74, and below 101.90 has ADR bear targets at 101.16 and 100.68.
william_blount (08:14) GUYS & DOLLS – FIND THE SPILL LOW — we, S&P will go up to the a.m. high.
Today’s December S&P 500 (SPZ) pit session opened 2 handles higher to 1675.50 – 1676.80, marking the intraday low before – Surprise! climbing, scratching and crawling up to 1690 by 11:28. What shutdown…Joe_S (08:38) looks like they want to run it to 1684. william_blount (08:40) and agree target is 84’s all the way up to to 1687/88 for the a.m. high with RISK MARKER on SAR (SELL AND REVERSE) using 89 when you fix the a.m. high. PAPER SELLERS, retest of the opening range holds as iceChat (08:56) UBS sell 500 – locals long iceChat (09:00) GS sold 400 – UBS up to 800 sold. iceChat (09:00) ISM 56.2 exp 55.0. william_blount (09:06) THE key to a nice a.m. high is through 1681.5 – THE SPOT – spots today in play are 1673, 77, 81.5 and 1689. iceChat (09:36) the locals in the pit are doing a little dance… they made the market on those UBS & GS sells 1680 – 1677 area.
william_blount (09:44) START sniffing for the a.m. high now…william_blount (10:06) RISK MARKER is the 89 SPOT. william_blount (10:11) ok –you are looking for the lunch low GIant the defined risk and any trade over 88.25 is a problem…then you get the mid p.m. high which normal = lower high, aberrant = greater than the a.m. high..then you get the last hr low. Following the 11:28 high of 1690 the index slipped quietly lower, holding 1686 area by 12:45 before retesting and holding 1672.50 area, just above the price of the day 1681.5 – THE SPOT.
Oh no, the Italians are pulling it together before our guys…SECRETARY OF BERLUSCONI’S PDL PARTY SAYS ENTIRE PARTY SHOULD VOTE FOR LETTA GOVERNMENT IN CONFIDENCE VOTE – ANSA.
The SPZ was trading in the 1676.50 area at 2:00. The early look on the closing imbalance showed (14:28) MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter showing 84%, $300M to sell side and came into (14:41) 72%, $228M. At 2:47 the imbalance showed $154mill to buy. Chatter – closing imbalance was to sell on first day of october this has not happened since global financial crisis. (14:51) richcanlione – new Qtr should be stuff to buy from Index funds – old school – yeah and Index Funds (+18.5% no extra Mgmt Fees) are beating the Hedge fund space and the active / yield enhanced space 😉 Dig … elway: should be your right. The cash close traded 1687.90 area before trading a new intraday high of 1692.00 and settling at 1689.40, up 15.1 handles. AAPL up 2% Nasdaq leads the equities, [DJIA] lags and S&P just right – assuming you were one of the bulls!
FACT CHECK: Slippery claims on health law, budget — WASHINGTON (AP) – President Barack Obama is the insurance industry’s most powerful pitchman these days as he drums up interest in the health insurance markets opening for business Tuesday. Whatever the merits of his product, there are reasons for the buyer to beware of his rhetoric. http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268744/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=6B0qr1w4
Note: Labor Department saying they will NOT release employment data if government is shut down. Of course the government is not saying what the effect will be if they shut down and then reopen before Friday. According to http://reut.rs/16xdEBk NFP would be delayed but jobless claims reports would not.