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The distribution of vaccines throughout the next year is expected to trigger an economic boom, allowing businesses that were closed to slow the spread of the virus to reopen
, while unleashing a wave of pent-up demand.
But economists are already warning that the rebound may not play out as dramatically as some expect.
“The recovery will be strong by historical standards, for many it won’t feel that way and there may be bumps and volatility ahead,” Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics, said in a research note published this week.
May expects global GDP growth next year to be the strongest since the late 1970s — a big enough upswing to return output to pre-crisis levels by the summer. But given that the surge would just restore the status quo, it’s “unlikely to feel like the best year in over four decades.”
Some industries will feel the effects more than others. Industrial production has been resilient and is likely to ramp up quickly, while the services sector — particularly long-haul travel — is poised to accelerate more slowly, May said.