Varner Bros. – Cotton Row Journal

agricultural, Charts, Commentary, News, Technical Analysis

75th Anniversary

How could one not swell with pride, looking at all the coverage on D-Day. There is an old retired cotton farmer here in our community who scaled the cliff at Pointe Du Hoc. Such courage!

Sales were smaller, 2nd lowest in 10 weeks at 184 krb. Had it not been for India at 145, this would have been downright ugly. New crop sales tied for lowest in 7 weeks at 52 krb. Combined year sales at 236 krb were 2nd lowest in 11 weeks. The sharp drop in shipments to 323 krb once again casts doubt about the final target. This has really been a yo-yo and has made projecting exports a mess. If this week is really the beginning of the year-end slump, then exports won’t make the target.

Welcome rains have come back to the Delta, while GA and SC are a little dry. So is India, but there is a chance for change mid June.

Varner View

Open interest has dropped 7k in a week, and at that rate OI could drop to the 200k area by notice, same as the July 2017 notice. The July 2016 notice was 183k, so a 200k figure would be lowest since then. Even though specs still hold a size net short, the gross numbers on both sides are relatively small. We remain hopeful for this small rally to continue, but will get downright uneasy if nothing by end of next week. If Mother Nature does not damage the crop here, or India, or China this summer, next fall’s price could be downright ugly.


Looking back, the 233 Fib cycle we spotted still holds up as a dominant timing feature. This event has identified a major high in Aug 2016, a major low in July 2017, a major high in June 2018, and last month’s major low. The accuracy of this timing event does not mean the market cannot make another new low, but the prior 3 reversals were good for moves of 13c, 21c, and 13c. A move up from 6450 of 13c is 7750, difficult to imagine. In the very, very near term, a seasonal high is due late next week.

As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

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