Varner Bros. – The Cotton Row Journal

agricultural, Charts, Commentary, News

World Cotton Day

The WTO is hosting a World Cotton Day, in coordination with several West African countries, to promote the production and use of cotton. In Geneva. This group knows how to locate a meeting so as to pump up attendance.

44% of the TX crop is listed as good to excellent, with 25% poor to vp. Soil moisture levels are in good shape, with only 10S having an issue. This district will begin harvest in 4 weeks, so rain from here on is like a rain in the Delta in late Aug.

The ICAC pegs 19/20 world end stocks at 85.833 Mb, +4.13 Mb.

Varner View

Crop progress looks good so far, and the surprise is in OK with an 85% good reading. It is this state, along with TX 1N and 2N that got too much cool, wet weather during planting. One weather service ran an up to date analysis of the Indian weather, and included a table from the IMD on rainfall to date. In the important nw provinces, rain has been scarce to this point, but monsoonal flows are moving further north and west. Water supply is extremely low, causing many farmers to delay planting until the monsoon arrives in force. If a weather issue does develop, it will be right here in the next 2 weeks.

Technicals

From Dave Toth, tech analyst at RJO. The market’s failure today below 6579 (27 June) renders the recovery attempt from the 6470 low a 3 wave affair as labeled in the 240 min chart. Left unaltered by a recovery above the 6835 high, this 3 wave recovery is considered a corrective event that warns of a resumption of the past year’s major downtrend that precedes it to new lows below 6470. This 6835 high serves as our new key risk parameter from which long term players can rebase and manage the risk of a still advised bearish policy.



As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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