Parabolic, Not Linear
Varner Brothers
Thought Of The Day
“It is not given to human beings – happily for them, for otherwise life would be intolerable- to foresee or to predict to any large extent the unfolding course of events.” Winston Churchill, 1940
Surprisingly good sales of 295 krb, with Viet high at 75, and China 2nd at 53. New crop sales were also very good at 120, Pak high at 26 and China 2nd at 18. Shipments were good at 404 krb. Combined crop year sales of 416 krb were in line with the last 2 months. Shipments were slightly below the target avg of 418 krb, but above last week by 20.
China is slowly crawling out of the hole, with traffic travel time rising on a mild trend to a 2 month high. Consumption of coal, China’s main electricity source, is nearly back to normal.
One chart particularly interesting was that of early linear predictions of new cases, which the press and others routinely “straight-lined” to arrive at a catastrophic level. Epidemics typically are parabolas, and at some point roll over. All it takes is time. Check out a story in the WSJ by Eran Bendavid, “Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?”
China is slowly crawling out of the hole, with traffic travel time rising on a mild trend to a 2 month high. Consumption of coal, China’s main electricity source, is nearly back to normal.
One chart particularly interesting was that of early linear predictions of new cases, which the press and others routinely “straight-lined” to arrive at a catastrophic level. Epidemics typically are parabolas, and at some point roll over. All it takes is time. Check out a story in the WSJ by Eran Bendavid, “Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?”
Varner View
No one cares much about weather nowadays, but here are a few observations. Coastal TX districts of 8N, 8S, 9, 10N and 10S are dry, with the worst areas in the southern part of 9, and all of 8S and 10S. The northern half of 1N is a little dry, but not much cotton up there. One weather service says the southern plains will be hot and dry, again, and Aug rain will not be good. In Australia, plentiful rains have prompted secondary boll growth, and Queensland may be able to harvest some of this late cotton. This crop is still hard hit, but reservoir levels have been partially replenished. Pakistan has also had unusual rains, which will support this mostly irrigated crop. All other major growing areas appear normal.
Technicals
Technicals
There is a positive seasonal ongoing, buy 2/20 and exit 4/09. This one has been a disaster, buying the Jan high and losing 18c since. However, it will be worthwhile to see if a small relief rally can push price up into 4/09. A sell seasonal is next, enter 4/23 and exit 5/23.
