There are reports the government officials are having backdoor talks…what else is new? Maybe, after they negotiate an agreement, then we will find out what else was written into law to get the deal done. It is widely believed that the tough battles/negotiations taking place now are an effort to smooth the way for the debt ceiling negotiations that lie in wait. That is what is affecting the markets. One thing is certain. It is not the retail accounts buying the weakness. Yesterday we saw chat that a short shutdown may not be too bad. However, it is now perceived that the negotiations may go on through the next two weeks – nearing the mid-month debt ceiling deadline. The longer the timeline, the greater the concern and the more effect on the global economy, corporate earnings and while we’re thinking about it, the U.S. GDP. We are all right for now, but how are you and the others feeling about this? Keep in mind – greed and fear run the markets … as the headlines continue to roll out of Washington.
During the partial shutdown in Washington, politicians elected by the people are still getting their paychecks, which are paid by the people they represent – not to mention their golden parachutes once they retire…that is not my vote! But, then again neither you nor I had anything to doing with writing those perks into law!
Today started with 350k ESZ and 1.2k SPZ traded on Globex, SPZ trading range was 1691.50 – 1675.70. Tuesday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), SPZ pit session trading range was 1692.00 – 1675.50 before settling at 1689.40, up 15.1 handles on the day. What Washington giveth yesterday – they taketh away overnight…as the equities spiked sharply lower during the Globex session.
Today’s December S&P 500 (SPZ) pit session opened 11 handles lower to 1678.30-1678.80 and treaded water in the early going, trading an intraday low of 1673.50 – briefly breaching yesterday’s daily low made in the opening range. During the morning and the midday session the equities trended higher, printing an intraday high of 1687.00, just shy of the previous day’s settlement, and then quietly fading back.
So far traders remain cautious, but the chatter is the funds are making minor adjustments, lightening and hedging but not reversing their positions. Some data shows the percentage of bullishness has upticked a bit. As long the funds are not pressing the lows, the 1700 area in the S&P 500 looks doable. The buy stops are plentiful above 1705 area, and if you like the downside, the sell stops can take the index down to 1661 area.
The SPZ was trading in the 1676.50 area at 2:00. The early look on the closing imbalance showed (14:10) MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter showing 75%, $183M to sell side, (14:40) 72%, $130M. At 2:47 the SPZ was trading in the 1683.50 area when the imbalance showed a moderate $365M to sell. Going into the cash close, a new intraday high of 1687 traded before fading back when President Obama reached out to us…settling at 1683.50, down 5.9 handles.
Did Obama’s late televised appearance prove Mikey’s morning point? Mikey_P (10:33) Obama wants market to go down to outrage more people. What’s the hardest trade and defys the most people, long I think. Mr. Market likes to defy!
william_blount (08:58) you are NOT in competition with ALGOS-you are in COMPETITION with yourself — if you worry about fiber optics, their speed, their tactics, you are not in that sub-set and are spinning your wheels — LEARN WHAT IS BEING PRESENTED HERE and EXTRACT PRICES AND WRITE THEM DOWN — LOOK FOR MATCHES among the contributors — SCROLL YOUR CHARTS not opinions of others — just jot down a few ideas for tech analysis and then SCROLL for them
Jim_Mayo (09:04) mark, Will N > as of now I say it over and over we are in the up 2 down 2 it is a market maker algo they take the fills and trade in between 3…5 tic / you can join this process anytime and in range extension don’t panic. usually trades back to give you exit at BE or…. anyway better practice on simulator then put it to work, and don’t forget you’re on a low area. Maybe .15 to .30 usually .20+/- you have to start the count and watch > range extensions will raise emotion if on wrong side that is what is expected, so that is why i say do it over and over on sim.
william_blount (09:06) what MAYO says was ID’S as BRACKETEERS by me and a friend named Chris Carolan back in 2003 and why I came up with the ROPE. not sure how one would get the APRIL 2004 – July 2004 SCROLLS from AVIDTRADER but some work there by CAROLAN and THARP had some nice rudimentary approaches to BRACKETEERING. look for this guy ATHBO and you may get some lightbulbs there too.
Note: Labor Department saying they will NOT release employment data if government is shut down. Of course the government is not saying what the effect will be if they shut down and then reopen before Friday. According to http://reut.rs/16xdEBk NFP would be delayed but jobless claims reports would not.