Collective Intelligence!
Today started with 213k ESU and 800 SPU traded on Globex, trading range was 1679.70 – 1684.00. Tuesday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), SPU pit session trading range was 1683.00 – 1677.00 before settling at 1682.40, up 13.3 handles. In Asia, 7 of 11 markets closed higher: Hang Seng -0.17%, Shanghai Comp. +0.15%, Nikkei +0.01 %. In Europe, 7 out of 12 markets were trading higher (DAX +0.51%, FTSE -0.12%)
Roger_Volz (05:44) $AAPL Downgraded to Neutral at Bank of America / Italy outlier +1% – italian lawmakers delay showdown over Berlusconi / France to revise down 2014 growth forecast, raise deficits: report / *GERMANY SELLS 10-YEAR BUNDS AT 2.06%, HIGHEST SINCE OCT. 2011 / UK jobless rate dips to 7.7 percent, claimant count down sharply / Greece will need help once more, possibly twice: ECB’S Coene – otherwise world quiet.. -2% 483 / MBA mortgage apps -13% / Due for a down day? one would think… Lindsay cycles coming into play. first time in a while where I had 60 min line up OB equities / OS CL/US/GC in a while. [AAPL] down 4% – Analysts piling on with downgrades from Merrill, UBS, and Credit Suisse. BAC/Merrill got ball rolling; gotta believe bargain hunters < 470.
President Obama speech fails to sway lawmakers – Many lawmakers — particularly Democrats, who are crucial to the the president’s case — have said for days that they were awaiting the speech before choosing whether to support a use-of-force resolution. But post-speech, Obama failed to suddenly win over a slew of members to his point of view. Politico http://politi.co/16j4aqn
From the Bipartisan Policy Center: At some point in those two weeks, the Treasury Department will have exhausted all its options and will no longer have enough money to meet its financial obligations. Either Congress lifts the debt ceiling or the federal government will have to default on some of its bills. http://wapo.st/1b1S6NO
Sept. 12 is SWITCH day. The December contract is front month starting tomorrow morning. The index contracts for the ES, YM, NQ and TF roll over – December 2013 (Z3) will become the front month! We recommend traders begin to trade the new contract on this day as the volume will begin to drop off on the existing contract until its expiration next week.
A snippet … or two … of William Blount’s premarket morning e-mail: Today is series s2L VERY SLIGHT iffy and the SPILL IS DOWN. Yesterday we had a GRAVY IN THE GAP VERY COMPRESSED (6 handle) day as price stalled at the 2nd of 2 places highlighted this week. First the BULLS cleared out and killed the 1669.51 CASH Monday. Next they attacked the GAP from the back through of the 1681.5 SPOT. FUTURES SUCCEEDED IN THE EFFORT TO FILL THEIR GAP. CASH DID NOT- “YET”. The low on 8/14 was 1684.83 and the close was 1685.39, the bulls only saw 1684.09 yesterday. We are at a fairly large FOCB (fish or cut bait) ZONE. We expected a move the 1651.5 2 of C or a move to 1667+ if the low “1632.5” critical spot was not converted to hard resistance opening up the 1613-1617 SPOT BOOKENDS. The actual low as 1625 within the margin of error of the 1627 SPOT. IT IS RAPIDLY BECOMING PUT UP OR SHUT UP TIME FOR THE BEARS. The Bulls want, need and must have the conversion of the 1689 SPOT to hard support. If they obtain that then the BEARS will have done exactly what they have done since the 1074 CASH LOW Oct. 4 of 2011: DROP THE BALL as the BULLS CLIMB THE WALL OF WORRY. I will add to William’s observation, aka “The Pain Trade” defies imagination as it trends higher or lower forcing more into the market in fear of missing the next big move, chasing performance or simply being stopped out or in …whether you like it or not.
Today’s S&P 500 pit session opened one handle lower to 1681.50 – 1680.80 before finding an early and tight range of 1677.80 – 1682.70 to sit in as [AAPL], down 4% early and down 6% by 10:00 leading the Nasdaq and the rest of the indices lower. By 10:15 the S&P was retesting the unchanged mark while the Nasdaq was down 14 handles. william_blount (9:23) BULLS HAVE TO CONVERT 1681.5 and pattern needs to be NORMAL — a.m. low to p.m hi. william_blount (10:11) bulls avoided the HOW DEEP IS YOUR 3 on the tag of 1677.75 — the drill now is to get the 1681.5 converted and ‘do a normal rest of the day’ – lunch Hi, mid p.m Low, last hr Hi. At 10:32, on the one-minute chart a spike in the E-mini volume of almost 21k pushed the S&P through 1683 area. The S&P traded up to 1685.50 at 10:37 before fading back to hold above 1683.50 area through the midday session and traded 1686.00 at 11:30.
This sums up the mood fairly well: Carley_Garner (10:11) We tend to prefer position trades over day trades, but have absolutely nothing going. We don’t see an edge in any market at the moment. However, we’ll be interested in becoming bullish corn should it retest the $4.40 area, bullish nat gas should it test the mid $3.30s, and the bonds should they see a print in the mid 127s, and bearish the ES from the 1690ish area. Until then, we are in a holding pattern.
The S&P continued to grind sideways to higher, stepping up to a high of 1687.50, 10 handles off the low at 12:35 and trading/holding a higher low of 1685.50 at 1:22 before trading sub 1685 area at 1:55 and holding at 1684.50 area at 2:39. The early look on the closing imbalance showed (14:09) MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter showing 74%, $164M to the buy side as the NYSE was approaching 400M in volume, lighter volume than yesterday. As the S&P traded 1685 area the imbalance continued to build, showing (14:33) MiM 88% with $520M to buy. Still looking for some downside? Roger_Volz (14:38) if mkt setting up corrective phase then NQ / or DJT should lead and DJIA be last to rally after lagging… At 2:45 the SPU was trading 1685.50 area when the closing imbalance showed a small $171M to the buy side and the S&P traded new high of 1688 area on the cash close. A shiny new high of 1688.50 traded just after the cash close, followed by a new intraday/weekly high of 1689.00 in the closing range before settling at 1688.80, up 6.4 handles on the day.
Beware…The U.S. government has returned from vacation, both the House and Senate are in session…with only 8 legislative days before the end of the fiscal year and before the current spending authority expires. Without action (including a month-long emergency extension) shutdown on Oct. 1. Treasury “X Date” May Hit As Soon As October 18th http://bit.ly/15T6Jv6
Did someone say the votes are not there?… President Obama told senators he wants Congress to delay Syria votes in effect giving time for the Russian chemical weapons proposal to play out.
People who still do not know why taper now must see this: http://vimeo.com/72371984
