Today’s Economic News:
Japan news was OK, Europe news today was also OK. Tons of news in the US so watch for the Fed at 2pm ET and before that the Chicago PMI that sneaks out at 9:42am and then the big reveal at 9:45am.
Quote of the Day:
If you can’t beat your computer at chess, try kickboxing.
–Anonymous
Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:
Boy, that price action sure looks bullish, but our trending indicators are really looking like the market wants to roll over here. Watch today’s news for reactions.
Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:
Short: 1693
Long: 1666
We still like those two lines (1693 x 1666) as touchable both ways. It sure looks to us like this market wants to break out higher and explore the 1700s. We are concerned about some of the breadth and weaker A/D lines. You can see how price action is wedging in here and that is causing the 60 minute ATR to begin to fall. That is bullish trending if we can pop out. If we roll instead, watch that ADR spike back up over three.
There is plenty of news to get the markets to move to a new level either way. FOMC announcement at 2pm ET today, PMI, and first glimpse of the Jobs report. We have the full Jobs report on Friday.
Our trenders are divergent and that makes directional calling all that much harder. We do think that whatever eventual direction that news sets up today into the close, tomorrow should follow.
On The MiM:
The good news is that early on the MiM told us there was a major sell imbalance in the market closing yesterday and the NYSE MOC did indeed come out at around $1B to sell. The bad news was that the market didn’t care. There were a couple of points to the downside in there if you were patient and waited for the 3:30 time frame, but the best trades were counter to the MiM.
That was our strongest MiM sell reading since we started collecting the snapshot data on July 1st.
I wanted to give the market a chance to sell off after hours, but even that didn’t happen with the overnight low around 1682 on the ES contract, that was a point higher than the closing low. For those that were disappointed, I concur. We had been waiting for a while for a clear signal to trade and this one just didn’t produce.
Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):
TLT continuing to struggle to get higher finding resistance too tough at that 107.75. Volatility is coming down and that should be bullish for the TLT.
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Breadth Charts in Full :
Zweig Breadth Thrust:
Bulls having a hard time getting the buy side going.
Cumulative Volume Index:
Rolling just a bit.
Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):
The 40 DPI also rolling just a bit.
New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :
NHs/NLs struggling.
Trenders :
Short Term Trender – McClellan Summation Index:
Bearish.
Long Term Trender – Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
Bullish
Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader
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