With rates back at (or over) June levels, many stocks have also pulled back to levels last seen around June. Will index follow and re-test the June lows…?
Morgan Stanley
Ten-year yields are on track to rise for the eighth week in a row, in a selloff that is reminiscent of the 2013 taper tantrum episode.
JPM
VIX term structure shifted higher today again, where part of the curve now is in backwardation. This is not your “normal” VIX curve as investors decided grabbing short term protection in panic, taking the curve into backwardation.
vixcentral
Fear has picked up lately, despite the fact VIX is still trading relatively well behaved. Note the crowd hasn’t been this fearful in a while (chart 2). Do we see extreme fear and then start leaning into longs?
CNN
CNN
Trend channel perfection continues, but when does this start “breaking” things?
Refinitiv
Excerpt from Goldman’s Dom Wilson:
“If the Fed needs to see the unemployment rate move to 5-6% to be confident that inflation will move lower, our simple benchmarking puts the S&P 500 in the 2900-3375 range and 5-year yields in the 4.5-5.4% zone.”
SPX broke below the short term support at 3850, but we remain stuck in the huge range, trading at levels we last saw in mid July. Mean reversion is a special skill as you are supposed to sell when everything feels like it is breaking up and buy when it feels the world is ending. We are still not at the world is ending feeling, but getting closer…
Refinitiv
The average percentile of these 16 sentiment indicators is back to where we were 3 months ago -around the June low.
Goldman
