Good morning – today is Series S4H and the SPILL is DOWN. The S3L Thursday was a snapback rally of 23 handles RTH.Although the RANGE was expanded, the move was a simple CHOP TILT UP that fit the S3L turns quite well and MORE Importantly, the pre identified prices ,ESPECIALLY lunch low to mid p.m. high , were SPOT on.
TODAY is EXPIRATION, expect FUN AND GAMES.It is also S4H: NORMAL, WEDGE ZOOM, OR LINK STINK as follows:
“ today is Series S4H and the SPILL IS DOWN.The day will go SPILL DOWN , a.m. high, mid a.m. low, lunch high, mid p.m. Low, last hour high…The 3 doors on this day are:
NORMAL , Link Stink, and Wedge Zoom.. The Normal prints the LOD at spill low or mid a.m. lo with spill low the preferable AND then winds through the remaining turns a given above w/ a HOD in the last hour…The mid p.m. low can be deep but should print a higher low by no more than a stop run reversal of the mid a.m. low. ..The link stink is the more bearish outcome of the remaining choices.It is visually a lightning bolt down -zig zag down day from the a.m. high to at least the mid p.m.; low and if the market is very weak then the bounce to the last hour high is muted and once sealed another leg down often ensues,In fact an S4H on a Friday that goes link stink is the prototype for the often written “IT IS HARD TO SAVE A FRIDAY on a TREND DOWN DAY”…Finally , the WEDGE ZOOM is a LITERAL VISUAL-first we wedge down to either the mid a.m. low (less preferable and need to look of tie in to prior day late high to form the wedge) or the more preferable wedge termination occurs at the mid p.m. low ,The next part is the ZOOM feature to the last hour high.The quality of that zoom has be assessed in real time as to rather or not it is truly ZOOMing or WHEEZING up to the last hour high. This feature is where the real time PRICE NEEDS and risk markers are of importance in my work.
Some KEY things to EXTRACT from yesterday are : THE PEEAN TRAP at 2344 ES and that for the day , the BULLS were able to take price to the 2374 SPOT .That high came at a possible though due to timing, the mid p.m. high and the depth of the retrace ito the last hour low..WHY???
Because it pushed prices though the 50 day cash MA and the drop to last hour low closed price BELOW the 50 day MA… UNDERNEATH we did not FILL GPA 1 for the FRENCH PRIMARY ELECTION GAP , 2347.4 aak 2358 SPOT. Because that SPOT was not traded be VERY AWARE that it is tied to 2350 CASH BIG ROUNDIE today and going forward .
Other things to remember for TODAY are that it is HARD TO SAVE A MARKET on a Friday if it is trending down (link stink or VERY WEAK S4H normal) .Conversely, if it is TRACKING the NORMAL know that there is usually a ‘scare the bulls’ move in the front half of the last hour and that the BOOK SQ move on Friday’s (origin 3:35-3:43) normally skews UP.
HONING: Expiration may go out with a whimper not a bang but because of the KEY THINGS FROM YESTERDAY given in the paragraph above it is is Obvious that the BULLS need to go after the 2374 SPOT , need the NORMAL path in bold paragraph.This WEEK BEGAN with a NEED to accomplish a BACK THOUGH of the 2370 by the BEARS.Overhead that is the MOST KEY SPOT going FORWARD for the bulls to take out .If we doing the WEDGE ZOOM or especially the LINK STINK the BEARS need to go after the 2357 IN ORDER to open the door to KILLING yesterday;s LOD and testing the the 2350 BIG CASH ROUNDIE… SPOTS TA ROUNDIES …WORK IN RANGE 2357 -2374 …
PS – the NORMAL Monday commentary is TOP DOWN analysis and that will occur ;however, due to the damage done on the weak S2L ‘obstruction of justice ‘ catalyst WEDNESDAY much of the commentary will be devoted to REITERATING the paths in front of us and those choices.Yesterday I asked the rhetorical question “WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PRICE ON THE CHART (UNDERNEATH) “:I have given that answer several times recently but there were no ‘guesses yesterday’ … EXTRACT THIS , KNOW THIS : 2322.25 CASH is the ANSWER and all paths going forward ARE RELATED TO THAT ONE SPECIFIC PRICE…