Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  8:30ET Employment Report*, Canada March Jobs Report, Fed’s Collins speaks; 9:15ET Fed’s Barkin
speaks; 11:00ET Fed’s Logan speaks; 12:15ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 3:00ET Consumer Credit

US-EU Trade and Technology Council meets in Belgium. FED SWAPS SHIFT FULL PRICING OF RATE CUT TO SEPTEMBER FROM JULY

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• Biden to Make Second Attempt at Large-Scale Student Loan Forgiveness – WSJ
• The CIA warned yesterday that ‘Iran will attack Israel within 48 hours’ as revenge for consulate strike
• Blinken said US will be “closely looking” at metrics such as the # of trucks making their way into Gaza
• John Paulson is hosting a dinner for Trump at his Palm Beach home this weekend. Admission runs as high as $814,600 per guest.
  

Global shares retreated as geopolitical tensions escalated ahead of US payroll numbers, and hawkish central bankers raised doubts about the pace and timing of interest
rate cuts. The MSCI All Country stock index was down 0.3% as risk aversion dominated the mood after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who doesn’t vote on policy this year, said rate cuts might not be required this year if inflation continues to stall.
Markets digested news that Israel is bracing for a possible retaliatory attack after its suspected killing of Iranian generals in Damascus this week. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack on Iran’s embassy compound in Syria on Monday. Oil’s
18% surge this year, alongside gains across other commodities has raised the prospect of higher-for longer inflation.       

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are slightly firmer ahead of the data, recovering some ground after all three key indexes fell more than 1% each on Thursday on hawkish Fed comments and Middle East
tension. The S&P 500 index is on track for its biggest weekly decline since mid-February, as investors await key jobs figures. Non-farm payroll numbers for March are due before the opening bell, with economists expecting a rise of 200,000, compared with 275,000
in February, while the unemployment rate is likely to keep steady at 3.9%. Fed fund futures point to just under 75 basis points worth of easing this year, in line with the Fed’s projections. Secretary Blinken said a lot to escalate the market weakness yesterday
– Antony Blinken said Ukraine will become a member of NATO – Ukraine’s foreign minister added “sooner rather than later.”  Blinken: If we don’t see the changes from Israel that we need to see, there’ll be changes to US Policy.   

Futures ahead of the data: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.02%, DJI +0.05%

In pre-market trading, Krispy Kreme (DNUT) rises 5.3% after Piper Sandler upgraded its rating on the doughnut chain to overweight following last week’s announcement of a national partnership
with McDonald’s. Altice USA (ATUS) slides 6.6% after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to underweight. Cinemark (CNK) gains 4.3% after Wells Fargo issued an upgrade. Shockwave Medical (SWAV) gains 1.5% after agreeing to be purchased by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
J&J agreed to buy Shockwave Medical for $335 a share in cash, or about $12.5 billion.

European shares slumped the most in almost two months, tracking a broad market retreat, as oil prices held near five-month highs and investors braced for a key reading on the US labor
market. Disappointing economic data from Germany and France had also weighed on sentiment. German Factory Orders came in weaker at 0.2% versus a consensus of 0.8%.  UK House prices fell 1% and France’s industrial output also slowed to 0.2%. The Stoxx 600 slid
more than 1%, with almost all sectors trading in the red, and is on track for its worst one-day loss since October.  Energy stocks outperform as oil rises for a fourth day. Stoxx 600 -1.1%, DAX -1.4%, CAC -1.4%, FTSE 100 -1%. Retail and Banks -2%, Travel -1.5%,
Energy +0.2%.

Asian stocks declined amid a selloff in technology stocks, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.2% before paring the decline to 0.6%. Toyota, Tokyo Electron and Keyence
Crop were among the biggest drags on the benchmark. Energy stocks outperformed as oil climbed amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Japanese benchmarks fell the most in the region as a stronger yen weighed on exporters. BOJ Governor Ueda said today
that the central bank could “respond with monetary policy” if yen declines significantly affect inflation and wages. Japan’s Household Spending declined modestly due to sticky inflation. Hong Kong stocks, which fell heavily after a holiday, recouped most of
their losses to close little changed. Markets were shut in mainland China and Taiwan. Nikkei 225 -2%, Philippines -1.2%, Topix -1.1%, Vietnam -1%, Kospi -1%, ASX 200 -0.55%, Hang Seng Index -0.01%. Indonesia +0.5%, Sensex +0.03%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury are slightly cheaper across the curve,  with the 10-year yield hovering near its highest in more than three months, last at 4.330%, nearly 2bp higher on
the day. For jobs report, median estimate for headline change in nonfarm payrolls is 214k vs prior 275k, with crowd-sourced whisper number 233k.  The Fed will be ready to lower rates in June, according to chief US economist at Morgan Stanley. US session includes
March jobs report and several Fed speakers.

METALS: 
   

Gold inched higher just below a record high as traders awaited the US jobs report, which is expected to bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to refrain from rate
cuts for now.  Hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari on Thursday weighed on gold after it hit a record of $2,305.64 an ounce. Gold is still on track for a third straight weekly gain after setting a series of records recently. Silver was
also headed for a weekly advance — and is near the highest level in almost three years, even though it’s lower today. Spot gold +0.1%, silver -0.9%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices are mixed but are on course for a second weekly gain, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over tightening supply. Both benchmarks
settled at their highest level since October on Thursday after gains of more than 4% this week. The threat of supply disruptions from prolonged conflict in the Middle East kept Brent oil futures above $90 a barrel. Ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries
in Russia may have disrupted more than 15% of Russian capacity, a NATO official said on Thursday.  WTI -0.1%, Brent +0.1%, US Nat Gas +0.2%, RBOB -0.3%.

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the dollar retreated from an early advance after rebounding from a two-week low, as Fed officials’ comments gave support. The yen rose to a two-week
high before paring gains. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said today that authorities will use “all available means” to deal with excessive yen declines. The remarks add to a barrage of jawboning by Japanese policymakers this week.   US$ Index +0.1%,
GBPUSD is flat, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY -0.03%, AUDUSD +0.02%, NZDUSD is flat

Spot Bitcoin -1.8%, Ethereum -2.3%.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG