Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  8:30ET Durable Goods Orders, Canada Feb. Retail Sales; 1:00ET $70 billion 5-year note auction

No Fed speakers due to a lock period ahead of the May 1^st Fed meeting

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• Israel Calls Up Reserve Brigades Ahead Of Expected Rafah Offensive – WSJ  
• NYPD looking into who may be “behind” the pro-Palestinian protests in Manhattan
• Russia threatened to step up strikes on Ukraine over new US military aid to Kyiv
  
• Shohei Ohtani hit a 450-foot home run in his first visit to Nationals Park
  
• Tennessee lawmakers passed a bill allowing teachers and staffers to carry concealed guns on campus

Global stocks rose, led by tech names as investors’ focus shifts to earnings from US megacap bellwethers this week. An after-hours surge in shares of Tesla, following
its promise of new cheaper models, and upbeat earnings from some US companies lifted sentiment, spurring a rally in tech stocks in Asia and Europe. The risk-on sentiment marks a shift from last week, when stock markets globally slumped on the prospect of delayed
Fed rate cuts. Tuesday’s data showed US business activity expanded in April at the slowest pace this year, keeping hopes alive for the Fed to ease. Headline Ifo German business confidence index rose to 89.4, up from 87.9 previously, its highest level in a
year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is healing. Other key events to watch include US GDP data due later this week, as well as the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting.      

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are mixed with tech-heavy Nasdaq leading gains, supported by Tesla, while small cap Russell 2000 futures slip. Tesla soared post-market as investors cheered its pledge
to speed up the launch of more affordable models to as soon as this year, even as profit and sales missed. Still to come in the earnings-packed week are results from tech giants Meta Platforms, Alphabet and Microsoft. US gross domestic product figures and
the March personal consumption expenditure data – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – due later this week will also be in focus. The Senate passed a long-delayed $95 billion emergency aid package for Ukraine and other besieged US allies, clearing the way
for resumed arms shipments to Kyiv within days. It included tacked-on legislation requiring TikTok’s Chinese owners to divest or face a US ban.  Biden, in a statement shortly after the vote, said he planned to sign the legislation today.   

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.65%, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI +0.05%.

In pre-market trading, Tesla (TSLA) jumped more than 10% after Elon Musk vowed to launch less-expensive vehicles as soon as late this year. Analysts saying first-quarter results were
not as bad as feared.  AT&T (T) rises 3% after beating analysts’ estimates for profit in the first quarter as the company added more wireless phone customers than expected. Boeing (BA) gains 3% after reporting revenue for the first quarter that beat. Boston
Scientific (BSX) gains 4% after the medical device firm boosted its guidance for the full year. Enphase (ENPH) drops 9% after the solar-equipment manufacturer’s 2Q sales view and 1Q results disappointed. Hilton Worldwide (HLT) gains 3% after the hotel chain
operator boosted its expected unit growth for 2024. Humana (HUM) climbs 2% after the health insurer reported adjusted profit for the first quarter that exceeded estimates. Semiconductor stocks gain after Texas Instruments (TXN +6%) forecast revenue for the
current quarter above estimates. Luminar Technologies (LAZR) +4%, ON Semiconductor (ON) +5%. Vertiv (VRT) shares gain 17% after the electrical power equipment company increased its full-year projections for net sales and adjusted profit, touting an acceleration
of AI-driven demand. VinFast (VFS) trades 4% higher after the EV manufacturer signed agreements with 12 US dealers. Visa (V) gains 2% after the credit card company reported first quarter earnings that beat estimates, surprising analysts.

European indices edge higher with technology shares keeping the gauges in the green amid disappointing earnings in the banking and luxury sectors. The Stoxx Europe 600 is holding moderate
gains after its biggest two-day advance since November. The tech sub-index climbed 2.3%, bring its gain this week to 5%. Dutch chip-equipment maker ASM International jumped over 10% after reporting a stronger-than-expected quarterly order intake, with chipmakers
also taking comfort from an upbeat outlook by US peer Texas Instruments. Banks weighed in the region, with Svenska Handelsbanken AB slumping as much as 11% after Sweden’s largest property lender missed analysts’ earnings estimates. Earnings were also soft
from drugmaker Roche and luxury goods maker Kering, whose shares fell to their lowest since 2017. Stoxx 600 +0.15%, DAX +0.3%, CAC +0.4%, FTSE 100 +0.5%. Technology +2.5%, Basic Resources +1.7%, Energy +0.3%. Banks -0.6%, Travel -0.7%, REITs -1.2%. 

Asian shares gained for a third day on rising optimism over the tech sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.8%, with chip-related stocks such as TSMC and Samsung Electronics leading
gains after strong sales forecast by Texas Instruments boosted confidence in the sector. Expectations are growing for a positive set of tech earnings in Asia as the region faces its busiest week for corporate results. Tesla suppliers and peers rose in Asia
after the US EV maker climbed despite missing 1Q results estimates. Shares related to China’s development plans in the western regions advance after President Xi urged further open-up of the region’s economy. Nikon surged 10%, the most in 11 years after London-based
Silchester disclosed a 5% stake.  Taiwan +2.7%, Nikkei 225 +2.4%, Vietnam +2.4%, Hang Seng Index +2.2%, Kospi +2%, Philippines +1%, Shanghai Composite +0.8%, CSI 300 +0.4%, Sensex +0.2%, ASX 200 was flat.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Selling pressure in US Treasuries came early in the APAC region after Australia released higher than expected CPI figure, which caused a 14bps sell-off in Aussie
10yr yields. In Europe, core and semi-core yields rose 5bps on better-than-expected German IFO reading and supply from EIB, Greece, Germany, and the UK. The US Treasury market faces another big test with a record bond auction, a day after an impressive two-year
sale. The US will sell $70 billion of five-year notes, the largest amount ever offered for such a tenor. Auction cycle concludes Thursday with $44b 7-year note sale.  US yields are cheaper by 3bp to 4bp across the curve with 10-year around 4.64%.  

METALS: 
   

Gold ticked down ahead of US data due later this week that may shed more light on the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Safe haven gold has fallen more than 4% since its
Friday high as an easing of tensions in the Middle East sapped haven demand. The personal consumption expenditures index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation that’s due on Friday — is forecast to show that price pressures remained elevated in March.
That would support the case for a delay in rate cuts, a headwind for gold. Spot gold -0.2%, silver -0.7%.

ENERGY:   

Oil dipped before the release of weekly US stockpile data. US crude inventories fell by 3.23 million barrels last week, API data showed. That would be the first drop
in five weeks if confirmed by the EIA today. US oil refiners that have been among this year’s strongest S&P 500 performers are headed for a reckoning with a darkening supply-and-demand outlook. Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66 and Valero Energy are set to report
their weakest quarterly profits in two years starting this week.  WTI -0.3%, Brent -0.15%, US Nat Gas +0.4%, RBOB -0.1%.

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the Australian dollar outperforms G-10 currencies after inflation came in hotter than expected at 3.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, bolstering
the case for the RBA to hold rates. The yen remained mired near 34-year lows, keeping traders wary of intervention from Japanese authorities ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting that concludes on Friday. Japan is on the brink of currency intervention
if the yen weakens any further, according to one of the country’s former top currency officials.  Indonesia’s central bank delivered a surprise rate hike today, lifting its key rate to a record 6.25% to support the weak rupiah.  US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.15%,
EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY +0.05%, AUDUSD +0.2%, USDNOK +0.6%, USDCHF +0.3%, USDSEK +0.5%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.3%, Ethereum +2.3%. Blackrock Bitcoin ETF Enters Top 10 All-Time For Longest Sequential Inflows.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Airbnb (ABNB) Raised to Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $200
• Cadence Bank (CADE) Raised to Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $33
• Children’s Place (PLCE) Raised to Neutral at B Riley; PT $7
• Crane Co. (CR) Raised to Buy at Vertical Research
• Globe Life (GL) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $110
• MSCI (MSCI) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $569
• Neurocrine Bio (NBIX) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $170
• Packaging Corp (PKG) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $191
• PulteGroup (PHM) Raised to Outperform at Zelman; PT $126.75
• Reddit (RDDT) Raised to Hold at Hedgeye
• Sea Ltd (SE) ADRs Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $92
• Sirius XM (SIRI) Raised to Buy at Pivotal; PT $4.90
• Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $3.30
• SmartFinancial (SMBK) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Tesla (TSLA) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $220
• Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) Travel + Leisure Co Raised to Hold at Hedgeye
• Xerox (XRX) Raised to Hold at CFRA
• Downgrades
• AB InBev (ABI BB) ADRs Cut to Sell at Hedgeye
• ARC Resources (ARX CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$27
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) Cut to Sell at Guggenheim; PT $92
• HashiCorp (HCP) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Hibbett Inc. (HIBB) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Independent Bank Group (IBTX) Cut to Underweight at Piper Sandler
• Invesco (IVZ) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $17
• Liberty SiriusXM (LSXMA) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $28
• Molson Coors (TAP) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $56
• MSCI (MSCI) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Philip Morris (PM) Cut to Hold at SBG Securities; PT $105
• PrairieSky Royalty (PSK CN) Cut to Sell at Accountability Research
• UPS (UPS) Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $146
• Initiations
• Antero Resources (AR) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $31.70
• ARM Holdings PLC (ARM) US Rated New Buy at President Capital Management; PT $118
• Chemours (CC) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $29.70
• Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GR) ADRs Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT $20
• DNB Bank (DNB NO) ADRs Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT $17.70
• Equinor (EQNR NO) ADRs Reinstated Hold at Cowen; PT $28
• Haemonetics (HAE) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $91
• Halozyme (HALO) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $48.50
• J M Smucker (SJM) Rated New Sell at Hedgeye
• Kohl’s (KSS) Rated New Sell at Hedgeye
• Kura Sushi (KRUS) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $114
• Materialise ADRs Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $9.50
• Perrigo (PRGO) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $39.60
• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research
• Southern Copper (SCCO) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $127.70
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG