Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:   8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity; 10:00ET Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, Richmond
Fed Business Conditions; 1:00ET 2 year note auction

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• China is considering a $278B package to stabilize plummeting stocks
• Israel saw its worst single-day death toll since the Gaza conflict began
• For the fourth time ever two NBA players scored at least 60 points on the same day
• Unhappy workers cost US companies $1.9 trillion in lost productivity last year, according to Gallup

World stocks traded in small ranges ahead of a slew of company results that should offer insights on the state of the global economy. The BOJ held rates steady, maintaining
its ultra-easy monetary settings but signaled its growing conviction that conditions for phasing out its huge stimulus were nearing. Meanwhile, the Red Sea crisis is disrupting shipments of everything from cars to energy, with several firms warning that supply-chain
strains will impact earnings. US and British forces carried out another round of strikes on eight different Houthi positions in Yemen on Monday night. Investor attention now shifts to the European Central Bank’s Thursday meeting and whether officials may indicate
a start to policy easing.              

EQUITIES: 
 

US equity futures fluctuated after another record close on Monday as investors weighed optimism about corporate earnings against elevated valuations. In earnings, J&J reaffirmed its profit
forecast and GE’s first-quarter outlook missed. Investors are waiting for earnings from Netflix later today and expectations are generally upbeat.         

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.25%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, Dow -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, United Airlines (UAL) jumped 6% after its 2024 outlook topped estimates. 3M (MMM) fell 7% after its forecast for profits and sales growth this year missed expectations.
General Electric (GE) drops 3.7% after the company predicts profit this quarter will fall short of expectations. Philip Morris (PM) was 1.5% lower after UBS cut the tobacco company to sell from buy. Coinbase (COIN) fell 4.8% after JPMorgan cut its recommendation
to underweight from neutral. Enphase Energy (ENPH +4%) and Sunnova Energy (NOVA +6%) gained as Truist Securities raised their recommendation on both companies to buy from hold. Rumble (RUM) rose 3%, set to extend gains after jumping about 36% on Monday following
the announcement of a partnership with Barstool Sports. Sirius XM (SIRI) declined 4%  after the satellite radio company was downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Wells Fargo. Zuora (ZUO) shares gained 3% after the cloud billing technology company
is upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs. Homebuilder D.R. Horton fell 5% after reporting weaker-than-expected quarterly orders while offering optimism as the market’s key spring selling season approaches. Verizon Communications (VZ) climbs over 4%
after the company gained retail mobile-phone customers in the fourth quarter.

European gauges gave up early gains to trade mixed. The Stoxx 600 is slightly lower with healthcare leading losses while miners outperform. Novo Nordisk A/S contributed the most to the
index decline, decreasing 2.5%. Logitech International SA had the largest drop, falling 6.7%. Swatch Group AG also slipped after failing to hit the sales estimates. Europe’s airline stocks gain as the price of jet fuel falls.  Sanofi said it will buy biotech
firm Inhibrx for as much as $2.2B. Stoxx 600 -0.1%, DAX is flat, CAC -0.25%, FTSE 100 +0.05%.  Basic Resources +1.7%, Autos +1.2%, Energy +0.5%. Healthcare -1%, Media -0.6%.

Asian equity markets were mixed with Japan slightly lower and Hang Seng bouncing over 2%. Chinese markets rebounded after a report that authorities are considering a package of measures
to stabilize the slumping stock market. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%. Japanese stocks closed lower after the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy settings unchanged. Hang Seng Index +2.6%, Philippines +0.6%, Kospi +0.6%, ASX 200 +0.5%, CSI 300 +0.4%,
Taiwan +0.3%. Nikkei 225 -0.1%, Vietnam -0.4%, Sensex -1.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are cheaper by 1bp to 3bp across the curve following losses during Asia session, when futures were pressured as JGBs fell. US 10-year yields rise 2bps
to ~4.13%, with Treasury curves mixed, most spreads within 1bp of Monday’s closing levels.  US session includes 2-year note auction, first of three coupon sales this week.

METALS: 
   

Gold edged higher as traders waited for US economic data that may provide a steer on the outlook for monetary easing. Gold has traded in a relatively tight band this
month as investors seek further clues on when the Federal Reserve will start reducing interest rates. Spot gold +0.3%, silver +1.2%.          

ENERGY:  

Oil prices fell, pulling back from a one month high, as traders weighed simmering geopolitical tensions in several regions with supply outages in the US and returning
production in Libya. As much as 20% of North Dakota’s oil output was still shut in on Monday due to extreme cold, the state’s pipeline authority said. Meanwhile, news reports said Libya’s National Oil Co. has lifted force majeure on the Sharara oil field,
the nation’s largest, after a two-week shutdown due to protests.  WTI -1%, Brent -1%, US Nat Gas -1.3%, RBOB -1.5%.

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the yen rose after the Bank of Japan signaled the door was open for an interest-rate rise in April. The Bank of Japan’s slightly more hawkish
tone provided just a brief boost to the yen, with analysts saying the timing of a policy shift is still uncertain. The dollar is slightly higher, holding between its 50 and 200 day moving averages for a fourth straight day. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.05%,
EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY +0.05%, AUDUSD +0.3%, NZDUSD +0.25%.   

Bitcoin -2.2%, Ethereum -4.8%. Bitcoin has fallen to seven-week lows, hovering below $40,000 for the first time since the launch of 11 spot bitcoin exchange-traded
funds earlier in the month.   

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Automotive Properties (APR-U CN) Raised to Buy at Laurentian Bank
• Duke Energy (DUK) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $108
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $145
• Exxon (XOM) Raised to Outperform at Cowen
• NuStar Energy (NS) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $21
• Sunnova Energy (NOVA) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $18
• Teva (TEVA IT) ADRs Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $14
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $120
• Zuora (ZUO) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $12
• Downgrades
• Alkami Technology (ALKT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $27
• Atrium Mortgage Investment (AI CN) Cut to Hold at Laurentian Bank
• BAT (BATS LN) ADRs Cut to Neutral at UBS
• BILL Holdings Inc (BILL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
• Bloom Energy (BE) Cut to Sell at Truist Secs; PT $9
• Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $26
• Callon Petroleum (CPE) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $32
• CenterPoint Energy (CNP) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $30
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $33
• Chevron (CVX) Cut to Market Perform at Cowen
• Coinbase (COIN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $80
• Inhibrx (INBX) Cut to Market Perform at JMP
• Killam Apartment REIT (KMP-U CN) Cut to Hold at Laurentian Bank; PT C$20.50
• Philip Morris (PM) Cut to Sell at UBS
• Plaza Retail REIT (PLZ-U CN) Cut to Hold at Laurentian Bank; PT C$4.25
• Sirius XM (SIRI) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo
• Southwestern Energy (SWN) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $6.60
• Toromont Industries (TIH CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank
• Tricon (TCN CN) Cut to Hold at Paradigm Capital; PT C$15.15
• Initiations
• AMD (AMD) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $190
• Analog Devices (ADI) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $205
• Applied Materials (AMAT) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $180
• Asana (ASAN) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $19.30
• AstraZeneca (AZN LN) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $85
• Avnet (AVT) Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research; PT $48.50
• Broadcom (AVGO) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $1,300
• Canadian Apartment (CAR-U CN) Reinstated Buy at Laurentian Bank; PT C$55
• CNH Industrial (CNHI) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $13
• Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) Rated New Buy at Vertical Research
• Dream Industrial REIT (DIR-U CN) Reinstated Buy at Laurentian Bank
• FlyExclusive (FLYX) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $9
• Flywire (FLYW) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $25
• GlobalFoundries (GFS) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $70
• Granite REIT (GRT-U CN) Reinstated Buy at Laurentian Bank; PT C$90
• Inari Medical (NARI) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $72
• Intel (INTC) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $50
• InterRent REIT (IIP-U CN) Reinstated Buy at Laurentian Bank; PT C$15
• KLA Corp (KLAC) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $625
• Lam Research (LRCX) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $830
• Mainstreet Equity (MEQ CN) Reinstated Buy at Laurentian Bank; PT C$180
• Marathon Digital Holding (MARA) US Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research; PT $14.20
• MarketAxess (MKTX) Reinstated Outperform at William Blair
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $80
• Micron (MU) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $100
• Nexus Industrial REIT (NXR-U CN) Reinstated Buy at Laurentian Bank; PT C$10
• Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $120
• NRG Energy (NRG) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $65
• Nvidia (NVDA) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $775
• NXP Semi (NXPI) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $260
• Power Integrations (POWI) Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research
• Primaris REIT (PMZ-U CN) Reinstated Buy at Laurentian Bank; PT C$18
• Pyxis Oncology (PYXS) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $12
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $150
• Roche (ROG SW) ADRs Rated New Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $38
• Safehold Inc (SAFE) Rated New Market Outperform at JMP; PT $35
• Seagate (STX) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $90
• Silicon Labs (SLAB) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $133.70
• Soleno (SLNO) Rated New Buy at Stifel
• Spectral AI (MDAI) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $4
• Squarespace (SQSP) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $33.70
• Synaptics (SYNA) Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research
• Teradyne (TER) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $110
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $180
• Timken (TKR) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $92
• Western Digital (WDC) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $70

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG