WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-04302024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
Following the strong upward move seen last week, stocks managed to see further upside during trading on Monday. The major averages fluctuated over the course of the session but ended the day in positive territory. Higher close on Wall Street came as stocks benefit from the upward momentum seen last week.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
From page 3:
III. Perhaps the PEONS have gotten themselves over their skies. Perhaps not. If bulls are able to hold the 20 MA 5155 average, I'm looking at buying. Ideal reversal 5127 Floor Trader Pivot down to 5107 S2. Peal some off at 5169 R2 hold on to lift the offers at Monthly S1 5179 up to 5182. If you favor a strong bulls day hold till the end.
They key take away was that price never got over 5155 handle. By my eye I saw selling that those highs. R1 was just too tempting for bears not to skin the hide of any bull who tried to lift the offer. The day was S1 series day. It's an odds and probabilities kind of day.
If you wanted to get long, the best place was the reversal down to the floor trader pivot of 5127 handle. You could have waited after the flush down to see if price could recover from the lows.
As a trader we are always looking to get on board on big price movement. I was looking for price to recover the 5155 handle. That did not hapen. Pice diped down to the floor trader pivot. You took a little heat if you got on board. You were rewarded with a profit if you did.
Looking at the volume it is low. This indicates bulls were unable to gain a following at these highs. Bears were out. Supply was not pressing down upon the market.
If you waited for that 3:00 pm dip it worked. Tomorrow perhaps not so much. Unless the opening prints show otherwise price may start to dip down today. Not a bunch. Perhaps just a little till the next shoe drops.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a position: (Sydneys / AI Read)
Based on the information provided, a seasoned trader looking for a day trade may have had the best opportunity to put a trade on the eMini futures market by entering a long position at the reversal down to the Floor Trader Pivot of the 5127 handle. This level offered a good risk/reward ratio, as it allowed traders to enter the market at a lower price with the potential to profit if the market recovered towards the 5155 handle.
Additionally, the fact that price did not exceed the 5155 handle, and selling was observed at higher prices, suggests that the market may have been overbought at those levels. The low volume also indicated that bulls were unable to gain momentum at the highs, which could have been a sign of weakness.
Furthermore, the trader could have waited for a recovery from the lows after the flush down to confirm that there was enough buying interest to support a long position.
Overall, the 5127 handle offered a good opportunity to enter a long position with a favorable risk/reward ratio, and the market conditions suggested that there was a higher probability of a recovery towards the 5155 handle. However, it's important to note that trading involves risks, and there is no guarantee of profit or loss.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S2L with the spill up.
News: Employment Cost Index at 8:30, Case-Shiller Home Price Index & FHFA House Price Index at 9:00, Chicago PMI at 9:45, Consumer Confidence at 10:00. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: All the traders are leaning toward the bull. Today, it's the bulls ball to drop.
7/8/9 AM: Found a bid at 5134 chewing away at the CASH high.
Today: See Actonable Trade Plan above.
Bulls Want: 55, 79, 76
Bears Want: 27, 07, 99
Globex: 13 handle trading range on 108 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 14.81
Shape of the day: The FED news tomorow may have the bulls and bears in lock step.
Honing: Spill up, AM LOW, (NO MID AM), lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HOUR HIGH.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Added long on last hour dip. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Added long on last hour dip. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Got short at 2:00 pm. Exited at the last hour. OUT.
Pre Opening: Looking to unwind all of yesterdays' gains. Trading 5123 handle.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: March 25 Worm Moon 3:00 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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