WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-05022024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
After turning in a lackluster performance for much of the session, stocks saw substantial volatility following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement Wednesday afternoon. The major averages initially surged in reaction to the Fed announcement but pulled back going into the close.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
I spent the last two night writing the program that help me print an old school (by hand) Point and Figure Charts. I was like an old friend that not forgotten but haven't seen in a while. I went to Office Depot and procured 4 grid 17 x 22 inch grid paper. Yes I did. I charted the first 30 minutes from 9:30 am to 10:00 am and the FED 2:30 pm to 3:00 pm.
And you know what I found?
Pit Bull was right! From 2:30 pm to 2:45 pm the counter move was strong for 15 minutes. Then from 2:44 pm to 3:00 pm it faded out.
And you know what else?
WB's clock turns (yes you had to flip them) were SPOT on! Spill up sealed around 9:35 am early and weak. AM LOW seal 10:15 early and weak. Mid AM HIGH was more of a hook at 11:45 am. That's telling you something. In chat, traders were say; "I don't think this is going to go down."
It's those little neuosounces that give you the tell. The lunch low at 1:20 pm center time. You know the FED was coming up at 2:00 pm so traders were front running the FED scared roach dance.
Now, it could go either way. It went our way. The mid pm high was late and strong 2:55 pm. And what is the last turn? The LAST HOUR LOW. Now, did I think it would go that low? Did I want it to?
I did the Point and Figure chart by hand. Wyckoff had a count guide. I'm one of the few traders that still use it. And yes, from about 2:45 pm you can see the closes hovering around 5113 handle.
And yes, those counts worked themselves out. Wyckoff would count them in waves. That's how he knew what to expect from his 3 to 1 ratio. So yes, it took the price all the way back down from whince it came.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a position: (Sydneys / AI Read)
Based on the information provided, a seasoned trader looking to day trade the eMini futures market may have found the following times to be advantageous:
1. 9:35 AM: The trader could have taken advantage of the early weak spill up and entered a short position.
2. 10:15 AM: The trader could have entered a long position as the AM low sealed early and weak.
3. 11:45 AM: The trader could have entered a short position, taking advantage of the mid-AM high hook.
4. 1:20 PM: The trader could have entered a long position as the lunch low was established.
5. 2:30 PM – 2:45 PM: The trader could have entered a short position during the 15-minute counter move.
6. 2:55 PM: The trader could have entered a long position as the mid pm high was late and strong. (short)
7. Last hour low: The trader could have entered a short position as the price reached the last hour low. (no position)
It is important to note that these are potential entry points and should be used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis. Additionally, risk management and proper position sizing should always be considered when entering any trade.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S4H with the spill down.
News: International Trade in Goods and Services & Jobless Claims & Productivity and Costs at 8:30, Factory Orders at 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: It's the bulls ball to lose. Debbie day. S4H day!
7/8/9 AM: Price traded up to the 80 handle and backed off some.
Today: See Actonable Trade Plan above.
Bulls Want: 55, 79, 76
Bears Want: 27, 07, 99
Globex: 26 handle trading range on 148 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 15.04
Shape of the day: Price has recovered where all this started at 2:30 pm FED. Should a dog leg from the lunch high to the mid pm low.
Honing: Spill down, AM HIGH, MID AM LOW, lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HOUR HIGH.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Got long at 2:30 pm. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Got long at 2:00 pm. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Got short at mid pm high. Exited at the LAST HOUR LOW. OUT.
Pre Opening: Trading in a range between 84 and 78 handle. Taking out the 84 handle.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: March 25 Worm Moon 3:00 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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