MLK Day – US Markets Closed
Friday’s Recap
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Our View
On Friday, the ES sold off down to 4791.50 and traded up to 483025 at 9:29 with 346k contracts traded on Globex opening Friday’s regular session at 4829.00. After the open, the ES rallied up to 4836.50 at 9:49, sold off down to 4812.50 at 10:03, rallied back up to a lower high at 4525,25, sold off down to 4809.00, rallied up to another lower high at 4819.50 at 10:33 and then dropped down to 4802,25 at 11:455. After the low, the ES rallied up to another lower high at 4818.50 at 11:32, dropped down to 4804.00 at 11:29, back and filled in a 3 to the 5-point range until the ES down ticked to a higher low at 4803.50 at 12:03. After noon, the ES did a sideways to up back and fill until 12:52 and then rallied up to 4823.75 at 2:21 and then sold off down to 4807.75 at 3:25 as the
early imbalance showed $370 million to buy. The ES rallied up to 4817.00 at 3:47 and traded 4818.00 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $980 million to buy, and then traded down to the 4814.50 level and traded 4811.25 on the 4:00 cash close, down 4.25 or -0.09% on the day.
In the end, it was like an old song the PitBull used to sing called ‘take out the buy stops, take out the sell stops’. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was a two-way trade, 345k traded on Globex and 1.113 million traded on the day session for a total of 1.475 million contracts traded.
The ES gave a good attempt on the upside Friday but didn’t have the firepower to keep going up. I can’t say what the ES is going to do over the next 11 1/2 months. Some traders think the rally is a big phony and that inflation is going to rise again and the Fed’s rate cuts are a pipe dream while the bulls think new all-time highs and ES 5000.00 are just around the corner. For me, I still think higher prices but I also think there will be pull backs. There has been a lot of talk about job losses in 2024 and it looks like CitiBank is one of the first to announce plans to eliminate some 20,000 jobs by the end of 2026 marking the next phase of the bank’s most dramatic restructuring plan in decades. According to JP Morgan in the near term, we expect slowing economic growth to cause the unemployment rate to rise to 4.2% on average in 2024 (peaking at 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024) from 3.7% as of December 2023, which is quite mild compared with U.S. economic slowdowns in recent decades. I agree, I think the US economic recovery and lower rates are going to take more time than the public thinks.
Our Lean
Barring some type of wider military action I still think the ES is going up. I also think Thursday could be a big up day, you can’t sell the early gap up / rallies and buy the pullbacks or just be patient and buy the 20 to 30-point pullbacks.
Today’s Holiday Trading Hours from Amp Futures
View Full List: https://www.ampfutures.com/trading-info/holiday-hours/
Economic Calendar
No US economic releases today. Big news will be the Iowa Caucus. First votes for the 2024 US Presidential Election. A compllicated process that starts off the most confusing party nomination event.
Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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