PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 18 January: ASX to fall after UK | US data further dent rate cut hopes | Torque Metals completes acquisition down the road from Bald Hill and mega lithium merger Arcadium |

Tribeca’s Guy Keller doesn’t ask why uranium could hit US$175/lb … he asks why not?

• Uranium closing on the all time high of US$149/lb seen only briefly in 2007
• “… there’s not actually that many projects that are ready to respond to this price at the moment”: Guy Keller
• Keller’s uranium picks: BOE, PDN, DVX, AGE, BMN, LOT, DYL, BSN

Since launching six years ago — when the price of uranium was so low a retail investor wouldn’t touch a yellowcake stock with a 10  foot pole — Tribeca’s Nuclear Opportunities Strategy has enjoyed a 565% gain.

Running in line with surging prices for the nuclear fuel, it’s been a year of vindication for the tactic employed by fund manager Guy Keller, who has emerged as one of the leading Australian voices on the long depressed energy commodity.

U3O8 spot prices finally broke the shackles in 2023 by rising 88% to US$91.50/lb, spurred by a decade of underinvestment due to bargain basement prices, the start of a new multi-year contracting cycle, and a rush to extend the life of existing nuclear plants or build new capacity.

They have since continued to moon, running to ~US$106/lb this week.

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Market highlights

ASX futures down 33 points or 0.5% to 7320 at 7.07am AEDT

• AUD -0.6% to 65.42 US cents
• Bitcoin -1.4% to $US42,641 at 7.18am AEDT
• On Wall St at 3.22pm: Dow -0.5% S&P -0.9% Nasdaq -1%
• In New York: BHP -2.1% Rio -1.3% Atlassian -1.9%
• Tesla -2.4% Microsoft -0.5% Apple -0.8% Amazon -1.4%
• VIX +8.2% QQQ -0.9% TLT -0.1%
• Stoxx 50 -1% FTSE -1.5% DAX -0.8% CAC -1.1%
• Spot gold -1.2% to $US2004.15/oz at 1.55pm in New York
• Brent crude -0.8% to $US77.65 a barrel
• Iron ore -2.7% to $US125.80 a tonne
• 10-year yield: US 4.10% Australia 4.21% Germany 2.31%
• US prices as of 3.18pm in New York

Australian shares are poised to fall after inflation data in the UK and retail sales data in the US bolstered the case being made by policymakers that markets have jumped the rate cut queue.

Ampol, BHP and Yancoal all release production updates on Thursday.
US stocks hit sessions lows near 2pm in New York before paring some losses. The VIX briefly surged more than 10 per cent, snapping the volatility index out of a near two-month slumber.

Iron ore dropped, oil slid and gold was poised to fall back below $US2000 an ounce. As expected, the US said it is moving forward with a plan to designate the Houthis as a global terrorist group, effective in 30 days. The Australian dollar fell, putting a potential US64¢ on the radar screen.

The probability of a quarter point rate cut in March by the US Federal Reserve tumbled to 51.9 per cent near 2pm; swaps had a March rate cut at 80 per cent last week. The yield on the US 10-year note rose 4 basis points to 4.10 per cent 3.18pm in New York

Source: AFR