Tuesday Trading – Day After MLK Stats not Bullish
NY Empire Data
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Our View
Our editor is on vacation this week. He said for the first time in 10 years he would not be taking his laptop with him and you know what? I don’t blame him!
I am not backing off from my call for higher prices but there have been several attempts to take out the 4540 level and all have failed. The problem with the rallies above 4800 is the buying power dies out and the ES just can’t hold the rallies. I think part of this weak price action is due to all the uncertainty in the Middle East. With so many highs and a lack of follow-through, traders are starting to question if the S&P has gone too far too fast. That said, I talked to Rich Miller from @HandleStats last night and he said he ran a few studies, one of them I can’t divulge but he did give me a study that shows the Tuesday after MLK Day is not good, down 8 of the last 9 years.
Our Lean
I don’t think everyone is back trading after the holiday weekend, the weather is just too screwed up and with hundreds of flights being canceled it may take a few days to get everyone back in front of their screens. Today’s economic calendar includes the Empire State Mfg. number and Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaking at 11:00. It’s 1:00 am and the ES is down 18 points and the NQ is down 103 points. Our lean is to go with the flow, we have run a lot of buy stops in the ES the last few days and now it looks like the downside stops are being targeted. I think we bounce and can’t rule out buying the open but I want to get a look at it in the morning.
MiM and Daily Recap
The ES opened the Sunday night Globex session at 4812.00, traded down to 4806.75 on Globex at 8:19 am Monday, made four separate highs at 4813.50, and settled at 4813.50, up 1.5 points on the day. We knew going into Monday’s holiday abbreviated session that no one was trading and the narrow 7-point range proved fruitless.
In the end, it was super quiet. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, I think the best way to describe it was that it hung in there. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was extremely low, only 165k futures traded on Globex.
Technical Edge
Economic Calendar
Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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