Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:    8:30ET Empire Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Philly Fed, Import Price Index, Export Price Index,
Initial Jobless Claims; 1:15ET Fed’s Waller speaks; 7:00ET Fed’s Bostic speaks

Dave Wienke and Dan Forsythe are traveling the rest of the week.

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• NATO says # of member nations meeting contribution goal up from ’23, after Trump’s renewed ire
• Michael Burry has raised his holdings in Alibaba Group and JD.com
• Prabowo Subianto set to become Indonesia’s next president after unofficial counts show him winning nearly 60% of the votes
• Three people in custody following mass shooting at Kansas City super bowl parade Wednesday

Global stocks advance after S&P 500 reclaims 5,000 level behind favorable earnings reports.
Asian shares are on track for a fourth straight week of advance, a milestone not seen in a year. Automotive and real estate shares in Europe led gains while energy stocks lagged.
Traders have further scaled back Federal Reserve cut bets and have largely given up hope of a cut in March. Japan and UK slip into recession following fourth-quarter GDP data. Russia launched new missile attacks on Ukraine, targeting seven regions including
Kyiv.

EQUITIES: 
 

US equity futures ticked higher after a recovery that powered the S&P 500 back to the 5,000 mark. Solid earnings in the tech sector helped offset concerns sparked by this week’s hotter-than-expected
inflation print. Investors await the next batch of data on the US economy that could help shape future rate bets. In individual stock names, SoundHound AI (SOUN) soared as much as 99% in premarket trading, looking to extend gains triggered by a 13F filing
indicating that chipmaker Nvidia Corp holds a stake in the company. Deere & Co. (DE) forecast smaller-than-expected profit this year as tumbling crop prices give farmers less money to use on equipment purchases. Shake Shack (SHAK) is up 20% in pre-market following
an earnings beat and bigger-than-expected profits.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.18%, Nasdaq +0.19%, Russell 2000 +0.8%, DJI +0.17%

In pre-market trading, Coinbase (COIN) shares rise 7% after JPMorgan raised the recommendation on the cryptocurrency platform operator’s stock to neutral from underweight. AppLovin (APP)
shares jump 23% after the mobile app marketing platform reported robust fourth-quarter earnings. Paramount Global (PARA) shares slump 4.6% after a filing from Berkshire Hathaway showed the firm had reduced its stake in the media company. Twilio (TWLO) shares
slide 12% after the software company issued first-quarter revenue guidance that was slightly weaker than anticipated. Cisco Systems (CSCO) shares fall 4.3% after the maker of computer networking equipment slashed its full-year forecast. It also said it would
cut about 5% of its global workforce.

European gauges are up Thursday, following US shares higher as robust earnings helped overcome worries about persistent inflation. The Stoxx 600 index climbed for a second day to the
highest in over a month. UK GDP contracts 0.3%, deeper than all economists’ estimates and places the economy into recession. The EU lowered its projection for GDP this year to 0.8%, down from 1.2% in its November forecasts. It also cut its 2025 outlook to
1.5%, from 1.6%. Stoxx 600 +0.6%, DAX +0.7%, CAC +0.97%, FTSE 100 is flat.

Asian stocks advanced, powered by a rally in the region’s tech sector after earnings optimism drove US peers higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.9%, led by Taiwan
Semiconductor climbing as much as 9.8%. The Taiex rose to a record intra-day high during its first market session after the Lunar New Year holiday break. Japan unexpectedly slipped into a recession at the end of last year after falling 0.4%, losing its title
as the world’s third-largest economy. Indonesian markets cheered the unofficial victory of its next president Prabowo Subianto, rising as much as 2.2%. NKY225 +1.2%, KOSPI -0.2%, Thailand +0.1%, ASX 200 +0.8%, Philippines +0.4%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Taiwan +3.0%,
Indonesia +1.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields fell for a second day Thursday following their surge after Tuesday’s inflation data.
The upcoming slate of US economic data is about to put the loftiest Treasury yields this year to the test. Chances of a rate cut at the following meeting in early May stands at 1-in-3, down from almost full certainty two weeks ago. US 10-year outperforming
bunds and gilts in the sector by ~1bp. 10-yr yield at 4.2%, 2-yr yield 4.5%

METALS: 
   

Gold held below $2,000 an ounce as traders continued to scale back bets for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael Barr, said
that US policymakers needed to see more data showing inflation is heading back to target levels before they start cutting rates. Spot gold 0.2%, Silver 1.1%. 

ENERGY:  

Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday as the International Energy Agency (IEA) flagged slowing demand growth this year. Crude will potentially be in surplus this year
as supplies from outside OPEC+ continue to swell along with an unexpected jump in U.S. inventories. The agency stuck to its 2024 demand growth forecast of 1.2 million barrels a day while forecasting non-OPEC+ supplies to rise by 1.6 million b/d, led by the
US and Brazil. WTI -0.8%, Brent -0.7%, US Nat Gas +1.2%, RBOB -1.7%

CURRENCIES:   

The US dollar index is slightly lower as the yen climbed for a second day despite Japan falling into recession. Verbal interventions from authorities have allowed
the yen to recover from its previous drop. On the other hand, the UK currency reversed gains made earlier in the week after data showed 4Q UK GDP fell more than expected. Markets are discounting 75bps of BOE rate cuts this year. US$ Index -0.16%, GBPUSD -0.1%,
EURUSD +0.19%, USDJPY +0.36%, AUDUSD +0.2%, USDNOK +0.1%, NZDUSD +0.2%.

Bitcoin +1.03%, Ethereum +0.7%. Inflow numbers from the BTC-spot ETF market continues to drive buyer demand for the cryptocurrency.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Coinbase (COIN) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $80
• Eversource (ES) Raised to Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $62
• Ingredion (INGR) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $135
• Inogen (INGN) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Manulife Financial (MFC CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$35
• Molina (MOH) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $420
• Principal Financial (PFG) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• SimilarWeb (SMWB) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $10
• Teradyne (TER) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan
• Downgrades
• Akamai (AKAM) Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $96
• Charles River (CRL) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $20
• Comcast (CMCSA) Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT $44
• Generac (GNRC) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Iqvia (IQV) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Keysight (KEYS) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
• Orca Energy Group Inc (ORC/B CN) Cut to Speculative Buy at Canaccord
• Owens Corning (OC) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $154
• Snowflake (SNOW) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $214
• SSR Mining (SSRM CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$8.13
• Thermo Fisher (TMO) Cut to Hold at Accountability Research; PT $575
• Twilio (TWLO) Cut to Market Perform at Northland
• U.S. Steel (X) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $51
• Waste Connections (WCN CN) Cut to Sector Perform at ATB Capital; PT C$235
• Westinghouse Air Brake (WAB) Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT $135
• Initiations
• Alnylam (ALNY) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Alpine Immune (ALPN) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $44
• Argenx (ARGX BB) ADRs Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• CervoMed Inc (CRVO) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $50
• Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Cullinan Oncology (CGEM) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $30
• Dianthus Therapeutics Inc (DNTH) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $44
• Eastman Chemical (EMN) Rated New Buy at Redburn; PT $110
• Elastic (ESTC) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $185
• GE Healthcare (GEHC) Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $100
• Immunovant (IMVT) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $55
• Insmed (INSM) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Ionis Pharma (IONS) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Jeld-Wen (JELD) Rated New Hold at Loop Capital; PT $22
• Kymera (KYMR) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Monte Rosa (GLUE) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $11
• MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe
• RAPT Therapeutics (RAPT) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $39
• Roivant Sciences (ROIV) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $17
• Savara (SVRA) Rated New Market Outperform at JMP; PT $8
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Rated New Buy at BofA; PT $1,040
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $515

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG