Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  8:30ET Housing Starts, Building Permits; 10:00ET FOMC begins two-day meeting; 1:00ET 20 Year Bond
Auction; 4:00ET Net TIC Flows

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• BoJ raised rates policy rate to 0% to 0.1% range and scrapped “Yield Curve Control”
• Nvidia unveiled Blackwell, a much faster processor
  
• US lawmakers and the White House reached a handshake deal to fund the government through Sept.
  

Global shares dipped after the Bank of Japan brought an end to the world’s last negative interest-rate policy and emphasized that financial conditions will remain
easy. In a widely expected decision the BOJ ended eight years of negative interest rates, making a historic shift away from its focus on reflating growth with decades of massive monetary stimulus. While the move was Japan’s first interest rate hike in 17 years,
it still keeps rates stuck around zero and will likely go slow on further rises as inflation expectations have yet to be anchored at 2%. The BOJ also abandoned yield curve control and discontinued purchases of risky assets, including ETFs.  Investors rushed
into emerging market equities this month at the fastest pace since 2017, and into euro zone stocks at the quickest clip since June 2020, BofA’s fund manager survey showed. March saw outflows from US equities.  

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are lower after Monday’s tech-driven bounce.  In a busy week for central bank decisions, attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday. Investors
will be focused on the US central bank’s dot plot projections to gauge how many rate cuts policymakers are expecting to deliver this year. Buy the dip in stocks in case of a setback, Goldman said.       

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%, Russell 2000 -0.6%, DJI -0.2%  

In pre-market trading, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell over 8% after saying it is offering to sell 2 million shares of common stock in a public offering. Fusion Pharmaceuticals (FUSN)
shares soared 102% after it said it agreed to be acquired by AstraZeneca (AZN) for about $2.4 billion. Zoomcar (ZCAR) surged 50% after it signed a strategic partnership with India’s EaseMyTrip online travel platform. Shares of ShiftPixy (PIXY) plunged 34%
after soaring 100% in Monday’s session. Beyond Meat (BYND) falls 5% after the plant-based protein company filed a $250 million mixed securities shelf registration. Caleres (CAL) slips about 2% after the retailer reported a decline in Famous Footwear comparable
sales and issued weaker-than-expected first-quarter guidance. National CineMedia (NCMI) jumps 24% after the company announced a $100 million share buyback and reported fourth-quarter earnings that  beat. StoneCo (STNE) drops 9% after the digital payments firm
announced its co-founder André Street would leave his position as chairman.

European shares were fairly muted, treading water after three straight days of declines as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting for further clues on the outlook for
interest rates. AstraZeneca (-1%) agreed to buy Fusion Pharmaceuticals for as much as $2.4B as it seeks to transform cancer treatment by replacing traditional methods like chemotherapy. Unilever (+3%) plans to separate its ice cream business that includes
brands such as Ben & Jerry’s and cut 7,500 jobs. Thyssenkrupp AG and private equity firm Carlyle Group are in discussions that could lead to a partial sale of the steelmaker’s naval shipbuilding unit. Airbus SE walked away from talks to buy the big data and
cybersecurity business from Atos SE. Germany investor confidence in the economic outlook jumped to the highest in more than two years, rising more than expected to 31.7 in March from 19.9 prior. Switzerland’s government cut its inflation forecast for 2024
to 1.5% from 1.9%, which may boost the chance of an earlier-than-expected SNB rate cut this week. Stoxx 600 -0.05%, DAX +0.15%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 -0.2%. Banks +1%, Autos +0.9%, Insurance +0.5%. Basic Resources -0.6%, Utilities -0.6%, Technology -0.5%. 

Asian stocks were mostly lower, led by South Korea, Hong Kong and India, as technology stocks dropped. Japanese shares were the region’s best performer after the Bank of Japan raised
interest rates for the first time since 2007. Officials set a policy rate range of between 0% and 0.1%. Even as it rolled back stimulus, the BOJ downgraded its assessment on the economy and cautioned about weakness in consumption. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was choppy
initially after the decision but closed higher by 0.6%, buoyed by a weaker yen. The Topix closed at the highest since 1990. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%, with Tencent and Kia (-7%) among the biggest drags. Asian semiconductor stocks slumped after
Nvidia unveiled its latest AI processor at its GTC conference. Topix +1.1%, Indonesia +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.4%, Singapore +0.05%. Hang Seng Index -1.8%, Kospi -1.1%, CSI 300 -0.7%, Taiwan and Vietnam -0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly richer across the curve led by front-end, trailing steeper gains in gilts. US rates had little reaction to Bank of Japan’s first interest-rate
hike since 2007, which was anticipated, remaining near year-to-date highs ahead of 20-year bond auction. Front-end yields are lower by ~2bp, steepening curve spreads by around 1bp. 10-year yield ~4.33%.

METALS: 
   

Gold ticked lower after the Bank of Japan ended the world’s last negative interest-rate policy, while traders look ahead to key decisions from the US and UK central
banks this week. The Fed is set to announce its latest decision on Wednesday, with swaps markets indicating the bank is likely to hold off on rate cuts until June. Gold’s recent rally was also spurred by surging demand from China, though that appears to have
slowed. Bullion exports to China and Hong Kong from key refining hub Switzerland fell by nearly a quarter in February.  Spot gold -0.2%, silver -0.3%.

ENERGY:   

Crude oil prices are hovering around four month highs amid ongoing supply side issues and positive demand signals in China. Crude is on course for a third monthly
advance after breaking free from a narrow range it had been trading in for much of the year. OPEC+ supply curbs have helped to bolster prices, and Iraq said this week it would cut oil exports in the coming months to compensate for not having delivered in full
on its earlier pledges to reduce production. Trips in private vehicles in China jumped as expressway passenger volumes were 54% higher than 2019 levels. Indian refiners are buying more American crude as tighter US sanctions crimped trade with Russia. WTI +0.2%,
Brent +0.2%, US Nat Gas +2.5%, RBOB -0.4%.

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the yen fell while the dollar edged higher as investors took the BOJ’s dovish guidance as a sign the interest rate differential between Japan
and the US likely will not narrow much. Japan’s central bank said it expects “accommodative financial conditions to be maintained for the time being.” Commercial banks flagged plans to raise some of their deposit rates for the first time since 2007. Elsewhere,
the Australian dollar fell to a two-week low after the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy rates at a 12-year high and signaled it’s done tightening monetary policy.  US$ Index +0.3%, GBPUSD -0.3%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.8%, AUDUSD -0.6%, NZDUSD -0.6%.

Spot Bitcoin %, Ethereum %. Bitcoin extended a retreat, tumbling around 6%, as investors digested a record daily outflow from the world’s biggest exchange-traded
fund.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• 3M Co (MMM) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $126
• Cooper Cos (COO) Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT $125
• Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
• Endava (DAVA) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $49
• JFrog (FROG) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $52
• Mersana Therapeutics (MRSN) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $5
• National CineMedia (NCMI) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $6.75
• Olaplex (OLPX) Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $2
• Truist Financial (TFC) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $43
• Downgrades
• American Tower (AMT) Cut to Hold at Accountability Research; PT $212
• Atlassian (TEAM) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• CareMax Inc (CMAX) Cut to Hold at Nephron Research; PT $5
• Fifth Third (FITB) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $41
• Fusion Pharmaceuticals (FUSN) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $21
• MongoDB (MDB) Cut to Sell at Redburn; PT $295
• NuScale Power (SMR) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $4.50
• Snowflake (SNOW) Cut to Sell at Redburn; PT $125
• Veradigm Inc (MDRX) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
• Western Midstream Partners (WES) US Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Initiations
• Accenture (ACN) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $425
• Advance Auto (AAP) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $78
• Alkermes (ALKS) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $37
• AutoZone (AZO) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $3,450
• Avis Budget (CAR) Rated New Buy at BofA; PT $170
• Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $108
• CarMax (KMX) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $80
• Chewy (CHWY) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $18
• Cognizant (CTSH) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim; PT $80
• DXC Technology (DXC) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim; PT $22
• Endava (DAVA) ADRs Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $60
• Epam Systems (EPAM) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $350
• Five Below (FIVE) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $225
• Floor & Decor (FND) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $115
• Gitlab (GTLB) Re-Initiated Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $70
• Globant (GLOB) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $250
• HashiCorp (HCP) Re-Initiated Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Home Depot (HD) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $415
• Infosys (INFO IN) ADRs Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim; PT $20
• Inspire Medical (INSP) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $250
• Leslie’s (LESL) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $7
• Lowe’s (LOW) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $280
• Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank
• Mister Car Wash (MCW) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $11
• Modine (MOD) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $105
• O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities
• Perficient (PRFT) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim; PT $65
• Progress Software (PRGS) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research
• Sachem Capital (SACH) Rated New Buy at Alliance Global Partners
• Stitch Fix (SFIX) Rated New Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $2
• TaskUS (TASK) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim; PT $13
• Telus International CDA (TIXT CN) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
• Tractor Supply (TSCO) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $245
• TTEC (TTEC) Rated New Sell at Guggenheim; PT $8
• Valvoline (VVV) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $50
• Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $30
• Wayfair (W) Rated New Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $72
• Zoom Video (ZM) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $70

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG