on March 18, 2024

Tech Is In the Driver’s Seat

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Our View

There is no denying that the markets are churning. There is also no denying that the big tech leaders are under selling pressure.

I know some think it’s the S&P that drives the markets first, but the tech sector has been in the driver’s seat for a long time and, at least temporarily, it’s taking a vacation.

The stats aren’t great going into the end of the month and April is not that great either. I have to be honest, I don’t know where that leaves the markets other than to say that the Nasdaq has finally woken up to no rate cuts any time soon. Another problem is all the current and impending tech layoffs, which are now at the highest since 2001.

Our Lean

There are only 8 economic releases, one Fed governor speaks, and the Fed’s two-day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. I am not sure what the Fed can say other than what we already know — although investors will be looking for clues on if rate cuts will begin in June. The BoJ and BoE will make rate decisions this week too.

Here’s a Goldman Sachs link for you to read about a midsummer rate cut.

Our Lean: I want to sell the early rallies and buy the larger 20 to 30 point pullbacks. Even if the dip isn’t done, it doesn’t mean the markets can’t bounce for a day or two. After 1.73 million contracts traded on Friday, I suspect today’s volume will be a lot lower and that may make for higher prices.

MrTopStep Levels:

How to use MTS levels

MiM and Daily Recap

ES recap

The ES traded up to 5230.75 and then sold off down to 5185.25 on Globex and opened at 5186.00 with the early imbalance showing $2.4 billion to sell. After the open, the ES printed 5184.25, traded up to 5198.25 at 9:32 and dropped down to 5172.75 at 10:07, rallied up to 5109.25 at 10:17, fell into a back-and-fill pattern from the 5183.25 level to 5191.75 until 10:35 and then traded up to 5201.75 at 10:50. From there, it slowly sold off to 5173.50 at 12:19, rallied back up to the 5181.25 level at 12:33 and then sold off down to a new low at 5167.75 at 12:01. The ES then rallied up to 5182.50 at 1:26, and traded 5175.00 1:53.

After the pullback, the ES rallied up to 5186.50, dropped 10 points down to 5176.50 and then rallied just above the VWAP up to 5190.50 at 2:44. It sold off down to 5178.75 at 3:40 and traded 5184.25 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $4.2 billion to sell and traded 5181.50 at 4:00. After 4:00, the ES rallied up to 5187.00 and settled at 5183.25 on the 5:00 futures close, down 34.75 points or -0.67%.

The NQ settled at 18,063.50, down 208.25 pints or -1.14% the 10 yr note (ZNM4) settled at 110’020, down-0.045 points or -01.3%, the 30 Yr bond (ZBM4) settled at 118.020, down 3 points or -0.08%, Gold (GCJ4) settled at $2,159.4, down 8.1 or -0.37%, crude oil (CLK4) settled at $80.55, down 0.19 or -0.24% and Bitcoin (BTCH4) settled at $68,215, down 1,385 or -0.99% on the day.

In the end, it was a big fat choppy mess to the downside — not a total surprise on a triple witching day. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was weak but did do some late-day back-and-fill. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was steady all day: 280k traded on Globex and 1.443 million traded on the day session for a total of 1.723 million contracts traded.