Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  8:30ET Import – Export Price Indexes; 9:00ET Fed’s Collins on Bloomberg TV; 10:00ET U. of Michigan
Sentiment; 1:00ET Fed’s Schmid speaks; 2:30ET Fed’s Bostic speaks; 3:30ET Fed’s Daly speaks at 2024 Fintech Conference

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• Taylor Swift reinstates her music on TikTok – FT
• BofA Warns Current Price Moves Are Typical of Bubbly Markets
• CHINA MARCH EXPORTS IN USD TERMS FALL 7.5% Y/Y; EST. -1.9%
• Israel is reportedly preparing for a direct attack by Iran this weekend

Global shares steadied but is on course for its second weekly fall after hotter-than-expected consumer price data mid-week forced traders to sharply pull back on
US rate-cut bets. China’s exports contracted sharply in March while imports unexpectedly shrank.  Exports from China slumped 7.5% year-on-year last month, customs data showed, the biggest fall since August compared with an expected 2.3% decline. The data was
released after mainland Chinese stock markets had closed. Imports for March also disappointed, declining 1.9% year-on-year after 3.5% growth in the first two months.

EQUITIES:  Implied EPS Movers for this AM: STT +/-6%, WFC +/-4.5%, C +/-4.1%,
JPM +/-4%, BLK +/-2.7%

US equity futures slipped as investors assessed earnings from some of Wall Street’s biggest banks. JPMorgan fell after its revenue beat but it reaffirmed its net interest income forecast
below analyst estimates. Wells Fargo erased its initial slide even after its NII also came in less than expected.  Strategists at Bank of America said a rare rally in both tech stocks and commodities, combined with a jump in bond yields, has echoes of periods
when bubbles are forming. The unusual price moves are consistent with bets that interest rates will stay higher for longer while economic growth remains strong — a so-called no-landing scenario. China instructed its largest telecom carriers to phase out the
use of foreign chips by 2027, the WSJ reported. AMD and Intel look set to be hit hardest.    

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.35%, Nasdaq -0.5%, Russell 2000 -0.3%, DJI -0.3%

Going to be tough to see the market break with growth outperforming value stocks…

With major banks reporting earnings today, a look at the Financial Sector SPDR relative to the SP500. Nearing key support.

In pre-market trading, BlackRock rose over 2% after the world’s largest money manager reported a record $10.5 trillion in client assets. Applied Digital (APLD) drops 10% after the data-center
developer reported a 3Q earnings miss. Coupang (CPNG) rise 5% after the e-commerce company said it would raise its monthly fee for “Wow” membership for new clients by 58%, starting on Saturday. Gitlab (GTLB) gains 2% after an upgrade at Raymond James. Globe
Life (GL) rises 5%, paring some of Thursday’s 53% decline, after the life insurance company issued a statement on a short-seller report, saying it “reviewed the report and found it to be wildly misleading.” Intel and AMD fall ~2% after the Wall Street Journal
reported that China has asked its telecom carriers to start phasing out foreign chips. JPMorgan (JPM) slips 2% after the lender reported net interest income that slightly missed analyst estimates and raised its expense guidance for the year. State Street (STT)
rises 4% after reporting adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) gains about 1% as overall 1Q revenue topped estimates, aided by an increase in investment advisory fees and brokerage commissions.

A short report published early Thursday morning by Fuzzy Panda Research
link
suggests Globe Life’s American Income division has wider fraud issues than related to the Arias agency.  Globe Life quiet period creates ‘vacuum’ after short report, says Piper Sandler.

European shares rallied the most in more than two months, led by mining and energy stocks as simmering Middle East tensions pushed commodities higher. The Stoxx 600 Index rose over 1%,
with all sectors trading higher. The Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources, up 3%, was on course to close at a one-year high with gold at a new record and metals such as silver, zinc and iron also on the rise. Data today showed the UK economy grew for a second
month in February, suggesting a recovery from recession is under way.  Among individual stocks, France’s Societe Generale SA was among the biggest gainers after announcing the sale of its Moroccan business to Saham Group. Stoxx 600 +1%, DAX +0.8%, CAC +0.8%,
FTSE 100 +1.4%. Basic Resources +3%, Utilities +2.5%, Energy +2.1%, Healthcare +1.3%, REITs +1%.

Asian stocks fell with Hong Kong and mainland China leading the losses.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.5% in its third straight day of declines. Chinese technology stocks including
Alibaba and Tencent, as well as South Korea’s Samsung Electronics, were among the biggest contributors to the drop. Chinese airline stocks fall after US carriers urge officials to block additional China flights. Japanese shares were an outlier amid a surging
real estate sector. Shares connected to Hong Kong insurers fall after authorities started an operation targeting corrupt conduct in the unlicensed sale of insurance policies to mainland customers. Hang Seng Index -2.2%, Sensex -1.1%, Kospi -0.9%, CSI 300 -0.5%,
ASX 200 -0.3%. Vietnam +1.5%, Topix +0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries advanced as the Boston Fed’s Susan Collins told Reuters she sees about two rate cuts this year. Treasuries are higher across the curve amid outperformance
by bunds during European morning after Governing Council member Stournaras said it’s time for the ECB to diverge from the Fed and calls for four rate cuts this year. US 10-year yield dropped six basis points, retracing some of the 22 basis-points surge in
the previous two sessions. US session includes University of Michigan sentiment survey data and four Fed officials scheduled to speak.  

METALS: 
   

Gold extended its all-time high streak, and silver hit the highest in more than three years as traders assessed the ongoing global geopolitical tensions. Bullion
broke the $2,400-an-ounce mark for the first time on Friday morning, climbing as much as 1.2% to $2,400.67. The US and its allies believe a major missile attack by Iran or its proxies is imminent in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy compound
in Syria.  Spot gold +0.9%, silver +2.3%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices climbed as traders watched how Iran might respond to a deadly attack on its diplomatic compound in Syria last week. Israel is reportedly preparing for
a direct attack by Iran this weekend, in what would be the biggest escalation of Middle East tensions since the start of the Israel-Hamas war last October. The IEA cut its demand forecast by 130,000 barrels a day for this year and estimated even slower growth
in 2025 on a lackluster economic outlook and the rising popularity of EVs. WTI +1.6%, Brent +1.3%, US Nat Gas -0.5%, RBOB +1.5%.

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, The dollar rose versus all Group-of-10 peers except the yen, with Fed officials set to speak later today. Japan’s yen touched a 34-year low versus
the dollar as traders waited for signs that authorities in Tokyo might intervene to strengthen the flailing currency. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterates officials are watching FX moves with a sense of urgency and will respond appropriately if they’re
excessive. The euro sank to the weakest level against the dollar in five months as expectations grow that the European Central Bank will start unwinding its unprecedented hiking campaign in June, well before the Federal Reserve begins easing because of stubborn
US inflation. Markets are pricing three rate cuts in the euro zone this year and fewer than two by the Fed. US$ Index +0.6%, USDJPY -0.1%, GBPUSD -0.6%, EURUSD -0.7%, AUDUSD -0.8%, USDCHF +0.2%

Spot Bitcoin +0.6%, Ethereum -0.1%.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Boot Barn (BOOT) Raised to Buy at Williams Trading; PT $113
• Coca-Cola Femsa (KOFUBL MM) ADRs Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
• DocuSign (DOCU) Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT $62
• Donnelley Finl Solutions (DFIN) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $72
• Ecolab (ECL) Raised to Buy at Mizuho Securities; PT $260
• Gitlab (GTLB) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
• Journey Energy (JOY CN) Raised to Buy at Acumen; PT C$6
• Mobileye (MBLY) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $41
• Downgrades
• Alpine Immune (ALPN) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $65
• Arista Networks (ANET) Cut to Sell at Rosenblatt Securities Inc
• Corteva (CTVA) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $57
• Instil Bio (TIL) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $11
• Packaging Corp (PKG) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane
• Target Hospitality (TH) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $12
• VF Corp (VFC) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $14
• Yangarra Resources (YGR CN) Cut to Speculative Buy at Acumen; PT C$2
• Initiations
• Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $85
• Cameco (CCO CN) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Ciena (CIEN) Reinstated Sell at Citi; PT $44
• Cisco (CSCO) Resumed Neutral at Citi; PT $52
• Coca-Cola (KO) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $66
• Dynex Capital (DX) Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $14.50
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) Rated New Add at Huatai Research; PT $135.70
• First Solar (FSLR) Rated New Buy at Janney Montgomery; PT $236
• Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $163
• PMV Pharma (PMVP) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $5

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG