Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES   10:00ET U of Mich Sentiment; 10:05ET Fed’s Powell speaks at Jackson Hole; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed
Services Activity; 11:30ET Fed’s Mester speaks on CNBC; 12:30ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 2:00ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 2:30ET Fed’s Mester speaks; 3:00ET ECB’s Lagarde speaks

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:  

• Is Wagner leader alive? The
  Independent
• Donald Trump posted his mugshot taken at an Atlanta jail on X

Global markets are mixed as investors awaited remarks from the heads of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank at a conference in Jackson Hole. Today’s speeches
by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde are at the forefront of traders’ minds. Meanwhile, German business confidence took another hit in August. UK consumer confidence rebounded in August as GfK’s sentiment gauge rose 5 points to -25,
recouping almost all of July’s downturn. Tokyo consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2.8% this month, dipping below 3% for the first time in almost a year.                                  

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures nudged higher in largely cautious trading ahead of today’s Jackson Hole Conference as traders await rate-path clues from Jerome Powell at 10:05ET. The S&P 500 and the
technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 are both set for their first monthly decline since February amid concerns that the Fed would keep a hawkish policy outlook.  Equities are already pricing in a hawkish monetary policy outlook and can withstand higher rates if they
are due to better underlying growth, according to Barclays. But BofA’s Michael Hartnett said the US tech rally will probably run into trouble as excess liquidity wanes.                       

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, Dow +0.4%. E-mini S&P is holding below initial key resistance at its
50 day mvg avg.

In pre-market trading, Affirm Holdings (AFRM) gains 7% after fourth-quarter revenue at the financial technology company beat expectations. Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC), the
special-purpose acquisition company that’s seeking to take Donald Trump’s media company public, falls 4% after Trump posted his own mug shot on Twitter (X). Domo (DOMO) tumbles 33% after the application software company cut its full-year forecast. Hawaiian
Electric (HE) sinks 21% as the utility’s woes deepened following the wildfires in Maui, suspending its dividend while S&P cut its credit rating. Olaplex (OLPX) drops 5% as Piper Sandler cuts its recommendation on the hair-care company to underweight from neutral.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) shares declined in the extended session Thursday after the chip maker’s earnings beat Wall Street consensus, but offered an in-line outlook.

European shares edged higher, extending weekly gains, with market participants turning their focus to Jackson Hole. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was 0.4% higher, with retail stocks advancing
the most, while technology underperforms. Retailer Watches of Switzerland Group plunged 30% after one of its rivals, Bucherer AG, agreed to sell itself to watch maker Rolex SA. Also speaking from Jackson Hole, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said
he’s not convinced inflation is under control enough for a halt in interest rate hikes.  DAX +0.5%, CAC +0.7%, FTSE 100 +0.5%. Retail +1%, Basic Resources +0.9%, Banks +0.9%. Technology -0.2%.          

Asian equities fell as technology stocks were sold off on risk aversion ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. Chinese stocks saw a short lived rally after Beijing’s latest attempt
to shore up growth is underscoring the depth of investor pessimism toward the world’s second-largest economy. China unveiled further mortgage easing policies to bolster its residential property market. Meanwhile, Hong Kong shares shrugged off a separate report
on China’s plans to cut the stamp duty on domestic stock trading by as much as 50%. Technology stocks in Hong Kong slumped more than 2% after Meituan warned of slower orders, while NetEase reported weaker-than-expected second-quarter revenue. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index declined 1.3%. Taiwan -1.7%, Hang Seng Index -1.4%, Philippines -1%, ASX 200 -0.9%, Topix -0.9%, Kospi -0.7%, Sensex -0.6%, CSI 300 -0.4%, Singapore +0.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

US treasury yields stabilized below 14-year highs as focus is on Jackson Hole economic policy symposium. US 10-year yields around 4.24%, 2 year yield at 5.03%, 2s10s
curve flattens by 2.5bps. Investors will be focused on Fed speakers at Jackson Hole and the FOMC’s view on the long-term neutral interest rate, which has been in focus extensively this week.

METALS: 
           

Gold steadied, heading for a weekly gain as traders look forward to policy maker speeches throughout the day. The metal has been boosted this week by data indicating
the US economy is stagnating under tighter monetary policy, adding to speculation the Fed’s rate hikes may end. Spot gold +0.2%, silver +0.5%.          

ENERGY:  

Oil advanced after US officials said privately that they’ve relaxed their approach to Iranian oil. WTI is paring some of its second weekly decline as traders were
waiting for clues about the outlook for interest rates from a speeches at Jackson Hole. WTI +1.4%, Brent +1.4%, US Nat Gas +0.1%, RBOB +0.7%.            

CURRENCIES:   

Currency markets are relatively calm.  The US Dollar Index steadied after earlier in the session rising to its strongest level in nearly three months as traders bet
Powell will confirm expectations of higher for longer interest rates while Lagarde is seen possibly as striking a less hawkish tone. Euro is slightly lower and headed for its sixth weekly decline. The yen weakened for a second day, while government bond yields
face upward pressure as UST yields increase.  US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD +0.1%, USDJPY +0.1%, EURUSD -0.05%, AUDUSD +0.2%, USDNOK -0.5%.

Bitcoin +0.4%, Ethereum +0.4%.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance

UPGRADES:

• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) raised to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
• Ardelyx (ARDX) raised to overweight at Cantor; PT $10
• Avista (AVA) raised to sector weight at KeyBanc
• Netflix (NFLX) raised to buy at Loop Capital; PT $500
• Shift4 Payments (FOUR) raised to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $57

DOWNGRADES:

• Clarivate (CLVT) cut to sector perform at RBC; PT $8
• Digital Realty (DLR) cut to hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $131
• Domo (DOMO) cut to market perform at Cowen; PT $14
• FactSet (FDS) cut to sector perform at RBC; PT $464
• Fidelity National (FIS) cut to inline at Evercore ISI; PT $60
• Frontline PLC (FRO) cut to hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $17
• Holly Energy Partners (HEP) cut to market perform at Raymond James
• Molekule Group (MKUL) cut to speculative hold at Benchmark
• Olaplex (OLPX) cut to underweight at Piper Sandler; PT $2
• RBC (RY CN) cut to reduce at Veritas Investment Research Co; PT C$122
• Weibo ADRs (WB) cut to hold at Benchmark

INITIATIONS:

• ASML ADRs (ASML NA) reinstated underperform at Haitong Intl; PT $556
• Advanced Drainage (WMS) rated new overweight at Stephens; PT $148
• Tesla (TSLA) rated new accumulate at Phillip Secs; PT $265
• Western Alliance (WAL) reinstated overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $60
• Zura Bio (ZURA) rated new outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $17

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG