Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES   8:30ET Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods Orders; 10:00ET U. of Mich. Sentiment, Euro-area
Consumer Confidence

Happy Thanksgiving!

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:  

• LeBron James becomes the first NBA player to eclipse 39,000 career points
• On This Day in History: President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas in 1963
  
• OPEC+ MEETING SCHEDULED FOR WEEKEND HAS BEEN DELAYED: DELEGATES
  

World stocks hovered around three-month highs with the MSCI All-World index slightly higher as more details on the Israel/Hamas temporary ceasefire came across the
wires. Israel and Hamas backed a deal to free dozens of hostages from Gaza in return for a four-day pause in fighting, expected by tomorrow, and the release of Palestinian prisoners. Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to say the war will continue until Hamas is
destroyed. The MSCI global shares index is up 8.2% in November, marking its biggest monthly rally since late 2020. Markets in the US and Japan will be closed for a holiday Thursday.                                         

EQUITIES: 
 

US equity futures nudged higher as traders awaited a slew of economic data before markets pause for holidays in America and Japan. Investors will be looking to data
on US jobless claims, durable- and capital-goods orders and consumer sentiment this morning for clues on the direction of monetary policy. Chipmaker Nvidia reported revenue well above expectations after the market close, but shares fell initially due to the
company’s downbeat China sales outlook. Volumes are likely to be light through the rest of the week because of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday. OpenAI will bring back Sam Altman and overhaul its board with new directors, a stunning reversal in a drama that’s
transfixed Silicon Valley and the global AI industry.                      

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Russell 2000 +0.5%, Dow +0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Nvidia (NVDA) gained 1% as the chipmaker reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong. The company, a major
beneficiary of the AI trade, has climbed more than 240% this year. Microsoft (MSFT) shares rise 0.7% as OpenAI said it would bring back Sam Altman and overhaul its board to bring on new directors including Larry Summers. Deere (DE) slumped 6% after forecasting
smaller-than-expected profit next year as farmer demand for equipment slows. Autodesk (ADSK) shares fall 5.8% as analysts flagged a weak FY25 revenue growth guidance that overshadowed an otherwise positive third-quarter result. HP Inc. (HPQ) fell 2% after
the PC and printer company’s first-quarter forecast for adjusted earnings was weaker than expected. Virgin Galactic (SPCE) slid over 6% after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the stock to underweight from equal-weight. Guess (GES) slumps 15% after
the clothing company reported net revenue for the third quarter that missed estimates. Urban Outfitters (URBN) drops 7% after the clothing retailer reported third-quarter comparable sales that missed estimates.

European gauges opened higher and continue to trade in positive territory. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is holding gains in choppy trading led by gains in the real estate, financial services
and technology sectors. Retail underperformed after Kingfisher’s 2024 profit outlook missed estimates. Kingfisher dropped 6% after the home-improvement retailer lowered profit guidance.  Among other individual movers, accounting-software maker Sage Group gained
13% after an earnings beat. Steelmaker Thyssenkrupp AG climbed 6% after reporting fourth-quarter results. UK indices fluctuated ahead of the so-called Autumn Statement from the Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt. The government aims to boost business
investment by £20 billion ($25 billion) a year by unleashing a package of measures on Wednesday including making permanent a 100% tax relief on investment spending by British businesses. Stoxx 600 +0.4%, DAX +0.5%, CAC +0.4%, FTSE 100-0.1%. REITs +2%, Financial
Services +1.2%, Technology +1.1%. Energy -2%, Retail -0.1%.

UK FORECASTS GDP TO GROW 0.7% NEXT YEAR VS. 1.8% PREVIOUSLY

Asian stocks were mixed to lower, pausing their three-day winning streak, as technology shares weighed while mainland Chinese shares underperformed.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped
0.6%, its first drop in four sessions. The biggest drags were TSMC and Advantest, as AI-related hardware stocks dropped after Nvidia’s earnings beat estimates but fell short of investors’ lofty expectations. Equities in Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia posted
moderate losses while those in Japan advanced as the yen steadied.  Chinese internet stocks such as Alibaba advanced after Baidu and Kuaishou rose following better-than-expected earnings. Philippines +0.7%, Singapore +0.6%, Topix +0.4%, Vietnam +0.3%, Sensex
+0.15%, Kospi +0.05%.  ASX 200 -0.1%, Taiwan -0.6%, Thailand -0.7%, Indonesia -0.8%, CSI 300 -1%.        

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury futures are near highs of the day with curve steady as long-end yields are down ~2.5bps after touching two-month lows. Move is paced by bull-flattening in
German bonds, where long-end yields are 4.5bp richer vs Tuesday’s close. US 10-year yields around 4.375%, 2 year ~4.85%. Interest rate futures markets see almost no chance the Fed hikes again and price about 90 basis points of rate cuts through 2024, with
a 30% chance they begin as soon as March.     

METALS: 
   

Gold steadied around $2,000-an-ounce ahead of US jobless claims data that may bolster bets on interest-rate cuts next year. Bullion is up about 3% since the start
of last week, buoyed by falling Treasury yields and a drop in the dollar. Gains were tempered by easing geopolitical tensions, as Hamas agreed to free hostages from Gaza in return for a four-day ceasefire with Israel and the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners. 
Spot gold +0.2%, silver +0.4%.                  

ENERGY:  

Oil extended session lows after Bloomberg reported the OPEC+ talks scheduled for this weekend would be delayed. The OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this weekend looked
to be running into trouble as Saudi Arabia expressed dissatisfaction with other members about their oil production levels. The worry is that Riyadh might reverse its unilateral 1 million barrel-a-day curb if its counterparts don’t contribute further to the
supply reductions. The OPEC+ conference could be delayed for an unspecified period of time, delegates said.  US crude inventories rose about 9 million barrels last week, with levels at Cushing also climbing, Oilprice.com reported, citing API data. That would
raise total holdings to the highest in almost four months if confirmed by the EIA. Gasoline and distillate supplies fell by a combined 5.3 million barrels. WTI -3%, Brent -3%, US Nat Gas -0.2%, RBOB -1.4%.  

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the US dollar is stronger after FOMC minutes noted that persistent financial conditions would impact policy with most officials seeing upside
risk to inflation. US$ Index is still on track for its worst monthly performance in a year, with a drop of 2.7%. China’s major state-owned banks have been buying the yuan to hasten its recovery lately, sources said. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD is flat, USDJPY
+0.2%, EURUSD -0.05%, AUDUSD +0.1%, USDNOK +0.4%.      

Bitcoin -0.7%, Ethereum +1.9%. Bitcoin rose, recovering from an overnight low of $35,651 after Binance chief Changpeng Zhao stepped down and pleaded guilty to breaking
US anti-money laundering laws as part of a $4.3 billion settlement resolving a years-long probe into the crypto exchange. The sweeping settlement with the US allows the cryptocurrency exchange to continue operating.  

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Clorox (CLX) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $145
• Coca-Cola Femsa (KOFUBL MM) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Grupo Santander
• George Weston (WN CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$187
• GoDaddy (GDDY) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $124
• Indiva Ltd (NDVA CN) Raised to Speculative Buy at Echelon Wealth
• Moog (MOG/A) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $141
• Ovintiv (OVV) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $52
• Southwestern Energy (SWN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
• Downgrades
• APA Corp (APA) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $37
• Autodesk (ADSK) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $215
• Foot Locker (FL) Cut to Sell at Williams Trading; PT $15
• iQIYI (IQ) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $5
• Jacobs (J) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Netflix (NFLX) Cut to Buy at CFRA
• Reynolds (REYN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $28
• TD Bank (TD CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$86
• Virgin Galactic (SPCE) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $1.75
• Walmart (WMT) Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management; PT $162
• Initiations
• Ambev (ABEV3 BZ) ADRs Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $2.86
• American Financial (AFG) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $125
• Arch Capital (ACGL) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $91
• Calidi Biotherapeutics (CLDI) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $11
• CCU (CCU CI) ADRs Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $15.22
• Cincinnati Financial (CINF) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $110
• Gitlab (GTLB) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $55
• KLA Corp (KLAC) Rated New Neutral at Redburn; PT $550
• Markel Group Inc (MKL) Rated New Sell at Citi; PT $1,275
• RenaissanceRe (RNR) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $251
• Saia (SAIA) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $450
• Verisk (VRSK) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $253.90

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG