WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-03112024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
Stocks moved mostly higher in early trading on Friday but showed a notable downturn over the course of the session. The major averages pulled back well off their early highs, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing a particularly steep drop. Downturn on the day, the major averages all moved lower for the week.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
After the jobs number, the market buldged up to R1 on the weekly and R1 on the Daily. The pivot was seen and held. The bulls are in controll. At the opening, price had alrady retraced the high to the low and held at the halfway mark, from the spike down. It looked like a strong trending bullish day.
However, I saw the day as S1L. That was due to the last hour weakness. That was the inversion. Friday's trade could only negate that with another inversion. It did not. Say it an't so, say it an't so…
A stong 30 minute move from the opening, let's us know this will not stay up as the volume drops off. The Composite Man was unable to gather a following at these all time highs. If you were looking to get short and you knew the day was an S1L day. Best place to get short would have been 10:10 am, 10:30 am, or 11:00 am.
As price took out the previous day's high and the previous day's close, price started gaining momentumn. We saw a slight bid come in from younger bulls who ventured a turn but they could not keep price up.
By 1:00 pm price printed the range from a measured move. The move from the first rally up to 10:00 am. A bid come in but it can't hold it. It's a shame I made a video explaining all of this. Price gives up 8 handle more to wipe out all the bulls and daddy bull steps up and get's what he wants.
You can see this as you look at the tightening of price from 1:45 pm to 1:55 pm. Notice 2 to 4 handle range. Look at the volume see it's the lowest on the reaction to a higher low at 1:55 pm. If you are looking to get out of your shorts on your own free will and you desired not to get sqeezed.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you you might be curious when the best time to consider a short position:
1. At 10:10 am: After a strong 30-minute move from the opening, price started to lose momentum, indicating a potential trend reversal. A trader might have looked for a short entry at this time, especially if they saw signs of weakness in the market, such as a decrease in volume or a failure to hold higher prices.
2. At 10:30 am: If the trader missed the 10:10 am entry, they might have looked for another opportunity at 10:30 am, when price printed the range from a measured move. This could have been a sign that the market was losing momentum and due for a correction.
3. At 1:00 pm: After price printed the range from a measured move, a trader might have looked for a short entry as price failed to hold higher. This could have been a sign that the bulls were losing control and the market was due for a larger correction.
4. Between 1:45 pm and 1:55 pm: If the trader was already short, they might have looked to exit their position during this time frame. The tightening of price and the decrease in volume could have been a sign that the market was due for a larger correction, providing an opportunity to exit shorts at a profit.
In all cases, the trader should have used proper risk management techniques, such as setting stop losses to limit potential losses and not risking too much of their trading capital on any one trade.
Trading in the eMini futures market is risky and can change rapidly, and several factors can impact the market. To minimize potential losses, always use stops when placing trades, but understand that there is always the risk that a market gap could result in a larger-than-expected loss.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S4L Normal with the spill up.
News: No news of note. All times EST.
Last Night: Drifted down to Daily S1 found and bid. Now trading under Daily Pivot.
Edge: Bulls got a chink in thier armor last Friday. Today, let's see what the bears can do with it.
There has been a change in the force. At least in the Day Light Savings time. It will take a few days.
A weak or two for the force to realign itself. Till then your TS's and roundies. Clock muddy for now.
7/8/9 AM: Holding just around 5120 handle.
Today: Need to see a strong showing by the bulls else the bears will start to hit the bid.
Bulls Want: 27, 57, 77
Bears Want: 05, 90, 78
Globex: 24 handle trading range on 208 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bear.
Tone: VIX trading at 15.54
Shape of the day: Due to time change, clock may be muddy.
Honing: Spill up, AM LOW, MID AM HIGH, lunch low, mid pm high, LAST HOUR LOW.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Holding low, waiting to see direction. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Holding low, waiting to see direction. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Unsure of direction and sit out the trade. OUT
Pre Opening: Non event. No numbers.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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