WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-03192024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
After showing a strong move to the upside early in the session, stocks gave back some ground over the course of the trading day on Monday but managed to close mostly higher. With the upward move, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 regained ground after closing lower for three straight sessions.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
Price closed weak Friday. Bulls are bears were ballanced with the bears taling the path of least resistance for the most part of the day. BY 10: pm Friday night price had already recovered the daily pivot. And by Monday morning price has already recovered R1. Most traders were starting to get upset. The middle of the move was happening while they were sleeping.
At 8:00 am price had already tore into R2 and was looking ovesold to the casual observer. At the market open, price had already printed most of it's run for the day. From the low from Friday up to the open price had already recovered about 60 handles of the loss.
At 9:55 am price had given it up and printed a new low of day. If you were looking to get long that might have been the place. Just a few handle up you would have seen a shelf of supply left from last week. And traders would have been looking to get short and you rode the bull wave up to the 5240 handle.
Now, good things do not last for every. And the bull move was running 25 mintues. If you look closely you'll see a volume spike check the up move. That would have been your siginal to get short the market at the top. Had you did that and held to the close, you would have printed a nice profit for the day.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a short position:
Based on the information provided, it appears that the eMini futures market has been in a downtrend for the past two days, with several attempts to rally being met with selling pressure. A seasoned full-time day trader might have looked for short entry opportunities on the recent bounces, with stops placed above the recent highs.
If we look 25 minutes later from the time when the price had given up and printed a new low for the day (9:55 am), we would be looking at the price action around 10:20 am.
At around 10:20 am, the price had already recovered slightly from the low printed at 9:55 am, but it was still trading below the daily pivot. The bulls were still struggling to regain control, and the bears were maintaining their momentum. In this scenario, a seasoned day trader might have looked to enter a short position around 10:20 am, anticipating a potential drop in price.
Trading in the eMini futures market is risky and can change rapidly, and several factors can impact the market. To minimize potential losses, always use stops when placing trades, but understand that there is always the risk that a market gap could result in a larger-than-expected loss.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S4H with the spill up.
News: Housing Starts and Permits at 8:30. All times EST.
Last Night: Bulls held in a tight range and then they poked the bear at 5218 and found supply.
Edge: No edge yet. The time change and muddy the clock and the contract changed.
There has been a change in the force. At least in the Day Light Savings time. It will take a few days.
A weak or two for the force to realign itself. Till then your TS's and roundies. Clock muddy for now.
7/8/9 AM: Took out the S1 5192 pivot and turned bearish. Started hitting the bid.
Today: Need to see a strong showing by the bulls else the bears will start to hit the bid. (same today)
Bulls Want: 92, 03, 22
Bears Want: 80, 68, 53
Globex: 32 handle trading range on 168 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bear.
Tone: VIX trading at 14.77
Shape of the day: Due to time change, clock may be muddy.
Honing: Waiting on clock to synch
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Exited due to contract change, waiting to see direction. OUT
Tuna (30m 1+D) Exited due to contract change, waiting to see direction. OUT
Sardine (5M-1D) Exited due to contract change. Exited at low. OUT
Pre Opening: For now, still holding the 5188 handle. Will need to see how CASH trades at the open for next direction. (same as Friday)
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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