Market Review
From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader
As the market opened, you could tell the “Spill” was in alignment with the clock. The “Spill” is the last hour turn. It was low. It was an S3L day. Those that wanted to get out got out!
The opening balance was also in alignment with the “Spill”. Yet that came to an end as the 9:45 marker found the low of the day. Volume started to pour in and we were off to the races with a strong buying trend.
As the Globex high was approaching, price started to turn away. The CASH high was 3129 or so. Yet, price would not breach the 3127 handle. The bonds seemed to be forcing the market up. The inverse relationship was easily seen as each tick ticked by.
Later in the day the market gave it all up and found the lows at 15:18 with a 3087.50 handle.
Looking Forward Friday, June 5, 2020
Same old game plan. CASH ends on a low and overnight Globex pushes it higher. Wyckoff did not have to concern himself with Globex.
The past few days have printed a 30 to 40 handle range day. Volume has been consistent, around 1,200,000 daily. The jobs number was not bad, but how can 38,000,000 hard-working men and women find employment?
Masks are required to purchase food and eat food. They have become a thing of life. And as I write this the market has taken out the 3140 handle and is pushing higher…
The theme is Wall Street is NOT concerned about Main Street…
We’ve had a good week this week. I recap it in the Market Recap. Normally it’s for subscribers, I can give you a free pass to check it out, click on the image below.
This does not happen every day. Yesterday I called the high and the low of the day. Total potential profit 50 points.
We’ve had a good week, click the link below to learn more.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
Fifteen point range up and down into the close with early selling right before the 15:00 pm ET candle into the day’s low at the 15:15 candle. The MiM was signaling a decent early sell with some breadth up util 15:20 when some buy imbalances started to peck away at that large sell side. By 15:30 it was clear the sell side was going to wash away, by then the market had regained about half of its sell off. The 15:50 reveal candle completely flipped the sell into a buy and we did market higher into the close.
Reminder: June is Russell 2000 reconstitution month. Here is the schedule for that:
- Friday, May 8 – “rank day” – Russell US Index membership eligibility for 2020 reconstitution determined from constituent market capitalization at market close.
- Friday, May 22 – “query period” begins – preliminary shares & free-float information for Russell 3000 Index constituents are published daily & queries welcomes (query period runs through June 12)
- June 5 – preliminary US index add & delete lists posted to the FTSE Russell website after 6 PM US eastern time.
- June 12 & 19 – US index add & delete lists (reflecting any updates) posted to the FTSE Russell website after 6 PM US eastern time.
- June 15 – “lockdown” period begins – US index adds & delete lists are considered final
- June 26 – Russell Reconstitution is final after the close of the US equity markets.
- June 29 – equity markets open with the newly reconstituted Russell US Indexes.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Chart of the Day
Top Stories on MTS Overnight:
- Russia: How Financial “Complacency” Morphed into “Crisis”
- Friday: Employment Report
- An investment adviser with historic ties to Warren…
- Late Rally Gives Dow a 4-Day Win Streak
- Westport Innovations (WPRT) Reports Q1 Loss, Tops…
- 1963 Austin-Healey 3000 BJ7 Mk II
- Goldman May Payrolls Review
- Protests shift to memorializing Floyd amid push for change
- Assets of the 1,000 largest U.S. retirement plans…
- Five Disciplines Signal Tumultuous Summer Ahead
- Andy’s View: Updates and More…
- A Method Traders Can Use to Confirm an Elliott Wave Count
- Market Watch – Boeing shares soar to record…
- NQ OPEN RANGE STRATEGY
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3122.50 | Opening Print: 3107.75 |
| Low: 3094.25 | High 3126.75 |
| Volume: 430,000 | Low: 3087.50 |
| ES Settlement: 3110.50 | |
| Total Volume: 1.75M |
Buy RTY / Sell NQ
The ES traded 3107.75 on yesterday’s 8:30 CT futures open, traded 3096.00 at 8:31 and then slowly traded up to 3127.00 at 9:36, 20.50 handles off the low. The ES then traded down to 3107.50, 20.50 handles off the high. After that, the ES back and filled for an hour and a half and then made new lows at 3100.75 at 12:06. The ES rallied back up to 3313.75 at 1:05 and traded down to a new low at 3097.50 at 2:17. At 2:34 the ES traded back up to 3104.75, traded 3100.00 on the 2:50 cash imbalance as the MiM ‘flipped’ from over $1 billion to sell to $450 million to buy. On the 3:15 futures close the ES settled at 3110.50, down 7.25 handles or -0.38% on the day.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was clear to see the liquidation in the NASDAQ was a drag on the ES but the futures closed firm. In terms of the day’s overall trade, 1.75 million ES traded with 430,000 coming from Globex making total day volume 1.32 million traded on the day session.
Our View
42 Million Americans Out Of Work
Almost 1.9 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week as the coronavirus crisis put 42 million people out of work in less than three months. Thursday marked the first time since mid-March that the US Department of Labor’s weekly figure fell below 2 million, a number that would have been unthinkable before the pandemic sparked an American employment crisis not seen since the Great Depression. Economists were expecting the feds to report about 1.8 million new jobless filings ahead of Friday’s closely watched employment report for May. Experts predict it will show the unemployment rate at or near 20% given that job losses continued last month even as some parts of the country started reopening their economies. I am not writing something you don’t already know but the real test lies ahead when people find that their jobs no longer exist or they just can’t find a job.
Our view, the ES acted weak late in the day but rallied before the close and rallied up to 3119 on Globex last night and is trading 3116.50, up 2.5 handles. Our lean, if the ES gaps 15 to 20 higher I am selling the open. If the ES opens down I expect it to rally but I also think we could see it sell off again. I just don’t have a good feeling about the overall price action but it’s hard to say bad things about the ES when it’s only 10 or 15 handles off its high. Last week the ES ripped on the close and today I think the odds favor a sell-off on the close but what the hell do I know?!?! Short term? Down. Longer view, 3160-3180 on the horizon.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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