Market Review
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3379.00 | Opening Print: 3368.25 |
| Low: 3335.00 | High 3319.75 (@ noon) |
| Volume: 320,000 | Low: 3319.50 (@ late day) |
| ES Settlement 3329.50 | |
| Total Volume 1.70 Million |
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 08/11/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
Continued Rotation Out Of Tech
After an active Globex session where the ES saw a move up to 3379.00, the market pulled back to open the cash session at 3368.25, up 17.75 handles, pushed up to the morning high of 3372.25 within minutes and then reversed as sellers carried the futures down to the morning low of 3354.50 before rallying back above the open, near the early high, late in the morning session.
The afternoon saw the benchmark futures index make one more push higher, printing a 3374.75 high of the day just after noon, before rolling over and then selling off again with a strong wave of intensity which left the ES taking out lows from Monday and last Friday, before finding a bottom of 3319.50 late in the day. Ultimately, the S&P’s settled at 3329.50, down 23.00 handles on the day or -.67%.
In terms of volume, a strong 1.7 million minis traded, the most to date in August. In terms of price action, it was all about selling the open, and then the midday high.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
Sell says the MOC, buy says the market. As we neared the new highs we found the MOC used for a decent sized sell at the 15:50 after an early indication was signalling a small buy. We sold off from the 14:00 candle into the 15:50 one that 40+ down move made the MOC not relevant with its 2B to sell. The 15:55 buyback candle turned it around and a decent 12 points into the close was made.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid-19
We continue to track Covid-19 across all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico to gain a better understanding of what is happening. While detected cases continue to expand, we are not seeing the equivalent expansion in hospitalizations and deaths. Our table uses 7-day averages and takes a 5-day linear regression slope in order to detect changes as quickly as possible. We score each state by a normalized slope and ranking in each category (infected, admitted, and deaths).
It is going to be a long road as we dig through data issues and struggle to understand just what the data is telling us. Florida new cases continue to fall but they missed their under number yesterday stalling the pace of the decline. That is a pause for concern. Texas also missed it’s under number although looking at Texas data it looks like they, like California, are working through a backlog. Only one person fired so far for incompetence in California as they work through a backlog of data.
A lot is written about how/when decisions to open up schools and work. Those decisions are based on data, it is the only planning tool we have in order to co-exist with Covid-19 and if we can’t get the data right there ain’t much hope until we can vanquish the foe with a vaccine or therapeutic.
We continue to focus on our top 3, Florida (20M pop), Texas (30M), and California (40M) looking at daily deaths, but more importantly, changes in the count.
Both CA and TX actually made their under number for deaths, though at this point we can trust neither. Today’s numbers for both states will be harder to hit in order to resume the fall. Florida put in their largest daily new deaths to date, at a time we thought they should be falling. There was talk about cleaning out some old data so today will be a tell on if it is a data “glitch” or a disturbing trend.
Over / Under
These are the over/under numbers for today. In order to push the 7-day average lower, today’s reported numbers need to be lower than the target number. A new case or death number that is higher will increase the 7-day average.
Yesterday’s over/under numbers and actual are also in the table.
| Yesterday | Yesterday | Today | Today | |
| State | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths |
| Florida | 5,446 / 5,831 | 247 / 277 | 5,409 | 225 |
| Texas | 9,167 / 9,803 | 245 / 220 | 8,706 | 236 |
| California | 4,526 / 12,500 | 113 / 109 | 5,295 | 202 |
| New York | 746 / 667 | 3 / 7 | 636 | 4 |
Use today’s number to watch the releases to determine the trend.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Stay Home!
Chart of the Day
GLOBEX
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 08/10/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
Buy Dow / Sell Nasdaq
After grinding higher in the overnight session to 3355.50, the S&P 500 futures opened Monday’s regular trading hours at 3350.00, up 4.75 handles, and went on to trade the morning early, on the open, at 3555.25 before reversing and turning lower as strong selling at 9:30 pushed the ES down to what would hold as the low of the day at 3329.00 just after 10:00 am CT. The late morning saw a rally that would push the benchmark index future back above the open.
The afternoon was a slow chop with the S&P’s maintaining a 10-handle range and the market would print the high of the day at 3357.25 as the futures went into the final hour of the day. The ESU20 settled at 3352.50, up 6.75 handles or +0.17%.
In terms of total volume, the trade was a modest 1.78 million contracts, in terms of price action, it was all about buying the mid-morning pullback and holding on into the afternoon.
Our View
S&P Breaks Winning Streak
After several days of selling the NQ, the ES finally gave way to the downside. The late-day sell-off lured in something that rarely works anymore,’ momentum selling’. How this works is the markets look weak going into the close and traders sell into the weakness thinking the ES will carry through on the downside the next day. This trade was negated when the guys with the better seats started covering their shorts in the final minutes of the day. It’s 5:00 am and the ES is up 25 and the NQ is up 95.
Our view is to sell the gap up open, cover on the pullback and look for the mid-morning low to be a buyer, avoid the midday chop and come back and play the MIM.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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