Market Review
ES Zones Update
Plenty of data to move the market both ways today. So far EU PMI’s very weak as expected, unemployment claims later today. So far we have been rallying off these numbers the last few weeks so levels we are watching for over/ under are as below.
SPX is intraday bullish whilst above the yellow level (2,787.67).
Look for a drift higher towards the Globex short zone (2814.4) as long as this level holds. A break of the yellow level will open the orange long zone (2698-2682).
SPX is in neutral weekly bias territory as it stays in the 2,727.75-2,798.96 range.
First model targets to the upside at 2,998 and 2,700 to the Downside.
Current targets, (Green and Red are active ones)
Best,
Gagan Daphu: GDaphu@yahoo.co.uk
ES Zones
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Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
It’s all about the close. A decently positive day with lower volume, just 1.3M contracts traded on the day, but none the less a 2% up day. In the trading room we were pretty confident that the MIM would be positive with a morning MOO that was decently positive and a day long hold of the gap. There was a small window of selling starting a 15:45 that was also our tell, but buyers came in three minutes before the reveal that was 1.9B buy. That reveal triggered a 3:50 candle that struck the high of the day and quickly retraced. It was as if the top wick punctured a hole and sellers came spilling into the close. All in all a decent day and close.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 2783.50 | Opening Print: 2780.75 |
| Low: 2717.25 | High 2836.25 |
| Volume: 353,000 | Low: 2796.25 |
| ES Settlement: 2788.50 | |
| Total Volume: 1.3M |
S&P 500 Futures: #ES Rebounds / MiM $2 Billion To Buy
The ES traded 2780.75 on yesterday’s 8:30 CT futures open. The ES rallied up to 2786.50 at 8:31 and then sold off down to 2766.25 at 9:15.25. The ES traded back up to 2784.25 at 10:03, back and filled for over an hour and then made a new daily high at 2792.75 at 12:55.
At 2:00 CT the ES traded 2791.00, traded 2798.00 at 2:30 and traded 2805.50 as the 2:50 cash imbalance MIM showed $2 billion to buy. On the 3:00 cash close, the #ES traded 2790.00 and settled at 2787.50, up 54.25 handles or +2.00% on the day but still down 3.04% over the last 3 sessions.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was a complete ‘flip flop’ from Monday and Tuesday’s weakness but I am not 100% sold on the rally. In terms of the day’s overall trade, total volume was 1.3 million contracts traded minus 350Kfrom Globex making total day volume just under 1 million contracts traded.
Earnings : $INTC, $WWE, $DPZ, $LLY, $COF, $ETFC and others report.
Our View
Down Days Lead To Up Days
The S&P has not had many consecutive down days over the last several weeks but closing down three days in a row has not happened since early March. A few more tidbits; if the ES gaps 30+ handles higher you sell the open and look for a low around 10:30 or just after. And lastly, I am not the bot writing the programs but it seems like there is always some type of after 2:00 to 2:30 sell-off that sets up the rip on the close when the MiM shows size to buy. If timed correctly you can make 10 handles in a few seconds but you better be ready to cover and reverse. Things have gotten so robotic. I told PitBull that the reason the volume has dropped so much was that all the oversized moves whipped out a lot of big and small accounts. If volume was 80% or 95% algos and HTF last year it has to be 90% to 95% now. The COVID19 has been a wipeout in all respects.
Our view, I am not going to bore you. If you have not noticed the above patterns, write them down. One that I didn’t mention is how the programs come in on the half hours, 9:30, 10:00, 10:30 ect., sometimes the programs come just before or just after the half or full hour but in most cases, they do come. I am not really sure you’re supposed to have a big bias right now. I am not in love with the markets but after they pull back and back and fill the bots all come marching in. Our lean, I do not have a strong feel for today but I think Friday is down and if they are weak on Monday we could be in for a few weeks of weakness. Break the 3-day rule! If the ES gaps 30+ higher or lower I would fade the open then look to buy the pullbacks keeping an eye on the NQ.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
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