Market Review
Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…PTG Daily Trade Strategy (2.4.20) we wrote: “Price has extended this cycle’s rally reversing nearly the entire decline which pushed price down to extremes at end of prior week. Normal for Cycle Day 2 would be for some ‘back n fill’ activity with a continued upwards bias. Extended targets measure 3290 – 3295 zone.”
Midpoint / POC-VWAP Zone was a dead hit within the projected target zone.
This leads us into today’s Cycle Day 3 (CD3). Positive 3-Day Cycle Target Statistic has been fulfilled. As such, this leaves us with a “wild-card” day for today. The bulls have clearly regained control, yet are vulnerable to a pullback below the 3295 – 3290 zone. Clearing and converting the prior high (3305.25) would reassert momentum targeting the 3313 – 3315 zone. As of this writing, we’ll mark 3290 as the “key” Line-In-Sand (LIS).
Penetration and hold above the 3305 handle keeps Bullish Bias intact, whereas, Violation and hold below the 3290 handle opens the door for deeper decline.
https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/06/jumping-the-creek.html
****We noted at the end of the prior session in preparation for today’s that the expectation was for a “wild-card” day in which a bullish scenario would be characterized as “Jumping the Creek”, which is a Wyckoff Concept. Well, indeed price is set to gap strongly higher in-effect “jumping-the-creek”.
Thank you for reading today’s 3 Day Cycle commentary.
PTGDavid
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Rooms
The MiM
A flipped MiM. Nothing much ever materialized on the MiM throughout the closing hours. Small numbers and a reveal that didn’t surprise. After a large forced buy on the opening MiM, there was no buying left by the end of the day. At around noon the markets hit their pick and slid sideways for the rest of the day with sloping off in the end.
HFT Alert
Despite the massive up day, there wasn’t a lot the programs did. That Capper program came in at just about the high of the day and sealed the deal. Twenty programs, 9 buys and 11 sells.
Economic Calendar
Chart of the Day
Top Stories on MTS Overnight:
- Trump uses State of Union to campaign; Pelosi rips up speech
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg
- Secretary Perdue Statement on President Trump’s…
- Markel (MKL) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates
- The Risks Facing Oil Markets Have Changed
- Earnings Scheduled For February 5, 2020
- NASDAQ Reaches New Closing High as Rebound Continues
Globex
| GLOBEX Session | Day Session |
| High: 3289.75 | Opening Print: 3286.50 |
| Low: 3236.00 | High: 3305.25 Up 60.25 Handles or +1.9% |
| Volume: 560,000 | Low: 3238.25 |
| ES Settlement: 3299.50 Up 54.50 Handles or +1.68% | |
| Total Volume: 1.62 M |
S&P 500 Futures: Turn Around Tuesday’s All Night, All Day Buy Fest
The ES traded sharply higher during Monday night’s Globex session. The futures made a low at 3236.00 and made an early Tuesday morning high at 3289.75 with 560,00 futures traded. At 8:30 CT the cash futures opened at ES 3286.50, pulled back down to an early low of 3282.25 and then rallied 11.75 handles up to the 3294 area. After the high, the ES pulled back down to the 3288.50 level, shot up to 3296.50, down ticked and then traded up to 3299.00, up 54 handles on the day or +1.6%. After another small pull back the ES traded up to 3304.50, up 59.50 handles, traded down to 3300.50 and then traded back up to 3305.25 at 1:50, up 60.25 handles or +1.85% at 2:50 CT.
At 2:00 the ES traded 3302.50 as the early MiM showed $271 million to buy, traded 3303.00 at 2:30 as the MiM showed $227 million to sell and traded 3299.00 as the final 2:50 cash imbalance showed $413 million to sell. On the 3:00 cash close, the ES traded 3269.25 and then went on to settle at 3299.50 on the 3:15 futures close, up 54.50 handles on the day or +1.68%.
In the end, the overall tone of the ES was ‘extremely’ bullish backed by a non-stop buy program in the Nasdaq futures (NQH20:CME) that closed up 2.67% on the day. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, total volume was LOW at 1.62 million contracts traded with 560,000 of that coming from Globex making the total day volume 1.62 million.
Our View: New World Trading Order
One of MrTopStep’s no.1 rules is that the ES takes days and weeks to sell off and one day to bring it back and that’s EXACTLY what happened. The ES made a low at 3236 on Globex Monday night and rallied 69.25 handles. I know some people will say they have seen this type of stuff before but I disagree. In reality, the coronavirus is a very, very serious situation with negative global economic repercussions but as I have said many times, the S&P tends to take bad news and make good of it!
Not that any of this really works but we have another rule that says after a big up day the ES tends to go sideways to down. I am not sure that’s how today’s trade will end up mainly because there is no way all the shorts covered yesterday. It is, as they say, a total pain game right now. One day is down big the next it’s up big. Is the coronavirus spread over? Absolutely not but that doesn’t mean the ES cant keep going up. Our lean is you can sell the early rallies and buy weakness or just be patient and buy the pullbacks.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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