After Tuesday’s S&P 500 futures (ESM17:CME) rip up to 2360.60, the ES ‘stutter stepped’ back down to 2350.00. Yesterday was the second day in a row that there was a MrTopStep 10 handle rule right on the 8:30 CT futures open.

As we wait on the days trade I want to make a few pre-open comments. The highs and lows of the Trump administration will affect the index markets, but at the end of the day, the U.S. economy is a steamroller, and for those that do not believe it all you have to do is look at Wednesday’s record Consumer Confidence numbers.

Sure the S&P sold off the week of the Trump health care bill, but it had already been selling off. It took almost four weeks to get the ES to sell off a total of 83 handles, and it only took 2 days to make back half the losses. Its another great example of the overall price action and how the stock market acts when there is historically low interest rates.

I put this out at 10:48:26…

TRADINGDATA2: (driley) I think we are at or ‘near the early highs’  

…and the ES sold off from 2358.75 down to 2351.75. From there the futures rallied back above the vwap to 2356.75, sold off under the vwap by 3 ticks, and then popped above 2367.00. There were some big rotations going on. Early in the session it was sell the Dow and S&P and buy Nasdaq, but the strength of the tech stocks, combined with the low volume, created a thin to win effect in the S&P.

TRADINGDATA2: (driley) Dboy:(1:38:41 PM) : going out on the highs today

Dboy:(1:38:47 PM CT) : NHOTC  (New Highs on the Close)

Dboy:(1:38:58 PM ) : ‘thin to win in effect’  (Volume at 1:40 is only 871k  with 150k coming from Globex)

01:40:22 TRADINGDATA2: (driley) going out on the highs today (NHOTC)

After I put that out the ES traded up to the high at 2358.75, double topped, and then pulled back. After another little dip under the vwap I put this out…

01:39:12 the S&P futures (ESM17:CME) rallied up to a new daily high 2359.75 and then petered out

…as the initial readings on the MiM were a sell.

Look we could kick the can around a little more but the bottom line is the ES made and early low are rallied for most of the day. After a MrTopStep 10 handle rule on the downside the ES managed to hit another 10 handle rule on the upside. All in all it was a quiet day of back and fill at the VWAP and low overall volume.

While You Were Sleeping

Overnight, Asian markets traded mostly lower as all the majors closed in the red, followed by a mixed, choppy and quiet session out of Europe. The S&P 500 futures opened globex at 2357.00 and shot up to 2362.50 early in the Asian session. Since then the ES has rolled over, steadily declining back through the open, and down to 2353.50 a few minutes ago. As of 5:41 am cst the last print is 2354.25, down 2.75 handles, on volume of 80k.

In Asia, 8 out of 11 markets closed lower (Shanghai -0.96%), and in Europe 6 out of 11 markets are trading higher this morning (DAX +0.11%). Today’s economic calendar includes the Weekly Bill Settlement, the 52-Week Bill Settlement, GDP, Jobless Claims, Corporate Profits, Loretta Mester Speaks, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, EIA Natural Gas Report, Robert Kaplan Speaks, a 3-Month Bill Announcement, a 6-Month Bill Announcement, John Williams Speaks, Farm Prices, William Dudley Speaks, Fed Balance Sheet, and Money Supply.

End of The Quarter S&P ‘Run & Gun’

Our View: There was a story that the PitBull sent me about how the computers never get tired, but human traders do. I am 100% sure that is correct. While I have never fallen asleep at my desk, or taken a cat nap, I do think that it’s easier for me to read the ES in the morning than it is late in the day. By the time 1:00 rolls around my eyes are tired and I can’t read the price action as well. That’s why I say, if you make a good trade and want to keep the money, don’t trade again.

One of the big mistakes I make is feeling like I have to make a trade. That is totally the wrong approach. As I told a young trader today; don’t force it, let the ES come to you. Oh, how I wish I could follow my own advice.

That said, we have a decent economic calendar and a load of Fed speak today. So far the end of the quarter has all been buys. Will the ES keep going up? Based on how the futures acted on the close I would have to say yes, but I also know that there could be some two way flow on the final two trading days of the quarter.

Our view, 2366.00 to 2368.00 could be a crowd stopper, sell the early to mid day rallies and buy weakness, keeping in mind the big boys may have stock for sale at the end of the quarter.

And please do not forget to sign up for this Saturday’s MrTopStep / Danny Riley solo webinar. There is a lot going on, interest rates, economy, Trump, budget. It’s been an algorithmic playground. I have compiled some cool charts to look at and some solid talking points. I also have a big surprise for those that show up for the webinar!

Trump 2017: Where do we go from here?

SIGN UP HERE

Market Vitals for Thursday 03-30-2017

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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

• In Asia 8 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp -0.96%, Hang Seng -0.37%, Nikkei -0.80%
• In Europe 6 out of 11 markets are trading higher: CAC -0.01%, DAX +0.11%, FTSE -0.16% at 6:00am ET
• Fair Value: S&P -3.67, NASDAQ +1.52, Dow -61.93
• Total Volume: 1.15 mil ESM and 1.5k SPM traded