S&P 500 Futures: Trying To Rally
Chart courtesy of Scott Redler @RedDogT3 – $spx futures -4 The more time we spend below 2840-2860 the more conviction the bears will have to break 2801 to at least test the 200day below (measured move is a lot below that).
During Thursday nights Globex session, the S&P 500 futures (ESM19:CME) printed a high of 2839.50, a low of 2819.25, and opened Friday’s regular trading hours at 2837.50.
Early strength helped propel the ES up to a new high at 2842.00 just after the 8:30 CT bell, but things turned south pretty quick after that. With traders leaving their desks early for the long weekend, all the buying power had been used up, and sellers ran the tape.
By 10:15, the futures had traded back through the opening range, and stopped just short of a new low at 2820.75. From there, thin-to-win took over, and ES started a slow, low volume, grind higher to 2835.00, before trading sideways for the rest of the day.
The futures were held to just a 10 handle range for the final 4 hours of trading, and when the 2:45 cash imbalance reveal came out showing $262 million to buy, the ES was trading at 2828.75. It would then go on to print 2828.00 on the 3:00 cash close, and 2831.75 on the 3:15 futures close, up +12.25 handles for the day.
In the end, the overall tone of the ES was weak early in the day, and firm at the end of the day. In terms of the days overall trade, total volume was lower due to the long holiday weekend, with only 1.19 million futures contracts traded.
Daily HotSpots
HotSpots are times during the market trading session that for the past XX days have consistently moved in one direction or the other. These HotSpots are published each morning pre-market. The next day, a results post is also published and weekly a summary post.
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| ES_F | LONG | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type | Entry | Exit | Trade % | Profit % | Points | HeatMap |
| normal-21 | 1313 | 1353 | 90 | 0.02 | 50.25 | chart |
| normal-13 | 1312 | 1353 | 92 | 0.02 | 43.25 | chart |
| normal-11 | 1257 | 1349 | 91 | 0.01 | 40.50 | chart |
| normal-8 | 0952 | 1044 | 88 | 0.02 | 69.25 | chart |
| normal-5 | 1314 | 1349 | 100 | 0.01 | 15.25 | chart |
| taylorPlus-21 | 1042 | 1141 | 90 | 0.02 | 61.00 | chart |
| taylorPlus-13 | 1344 | 1430 | 92 | 0.01 | 26.75 | chart |
| taylorPlus-11 | 1344 | 1430 | 91 | 0.01 | 23.00 | chart |
| taylorPlus-8 | 1104 | 1200 | 100 | 0.01 | 29.75 | chart |
| taylorPlus-5 | 1151 | 1221 | 100 | 0.01 | 28.50 | chart |
| taylor3-21 | 1248 | 1347 | 86 | 0.02 | 45.50 | chart |
| taylor3-13 | 1045 | 1139 | 92 | 0.02 | 44.50 | chart |
| taylor3-11 | 1045 | 1139 | 91 | 0.01 | 42.75 | chart |
| taylor3-8 | 1039 | 1131 | 100 | 0.02 | 53.25 | chart |
| taylor3-5 | 0954 | 1052 | 100 | 0.02 | 47.00 | chart |
| ES_F | SHORT | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type | Entry | Exit | Trade % | Profit % | Points | HeatMap |
| normal-13 | 1453 | 1552 | -85 | -0.02 | -51.00 | chart |
| normal-11 | 1521 | 1552 | -91 | -0.01 | -34.75 | chart |
| normal-8 | 1435 | 1516 | -87 | -0.01 | -35.75 | chart |
| normal-5 | 1047 | 1121 | -100 | -0.01 | -21.50 | chart |
| taylorPlus-21 | 0946 | 1023 | -81 | -0.02 | -56.50 | chart |
| taylorPlus-13 | 1002 | 1055 | -92 | -0.02 | -44.75 | chart |
| taylorPlus-11 | 0959 | 1041 | -91 | -0.02 | -57.00 | chart |
| taylorPlus-8 | 0959 | 1041 | -87 | -0.02 | -45.50 | chart |
| taylorPlus-5 | 1030 | 1106 | -100 | -0.01 | -38.75 | chart |
| taylor3-11 | 1303 | 1333 | -82 | -0.00 | -1.75 | chart |
| taylor3-8 | 1451 | 1549 | -87 | -0.01 | -37.50 | chart |
| taylor3-5 | 1451 | 1549 | -100 | -0.01 | -24.50 | chart |
Get all of today’s HotSpots here
MEJT Stock Market Forecast
Slow and Steady
Our view: There is a feeling that short weeks tend to be slow, but I don’t think that’s going to be the case this week. The ES has been trying to rally, and I think the rebound will continue.
Our view is for higher prices. If the ES gaps higher, you can sell the open and buy the pullback, or just be patient and buy weakness.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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