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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX rises, led by rally in health stocks | Paladin bounces back | Surefire Resources’ drilling confirms extension of mineralisation at Yidby gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 29 MAY: ASX jumps 0.9pc | Japan’s Nikkei hits highest since 1990 on weak yen, US optimism | Radiopharm receives positive early cancer treatment feedback from FDA |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX rises, led by rally in health stocks | Paladin bounces back | Surefire Resources’ drilling confirms extension of mineralisation at Yidby gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 29 MAY: ASX jumps 0.9pc | Japan’s Nikkei hits highest since 1990 on weak yen, US optimism | Radiopharm receives positive early cancer treatment feedback from FDA |

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    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    Can We Get an Options Squeeze for “Fry-Day?”

    The Selloff Is Putting Us Back Into The Painful Range Trade

    A Few Individual Stock Trades Stand Out

    Like a Tractor in a Rainstorm, the S&P Is Stuck in the Mud

    ‘Thin to Win’ Is Today’s Theme

    3 Lessons From My Mistake. Opex & Powell Are on Tap!

    Finally a Break Out of the Range. Can The Move Last?

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    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    24X5 Options Trading Begins Sunday, November 21

    ICE Notice

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Oil Contracts

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Gas Contracts

    CME Group Globex Labor Day Holiday Schedule

    Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Power Contracts

    AP: US COVID-19 cases rising again, doubling over three weeks

    CME Group – US Independence Day Holiday Schedule: July 2-6, 2021

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX rises, led by rally in health stocks | Paladin bounces back | Surefire Resources’ drilling confirms extension of mineralisation at Yidby gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 29 MAY: ASX jumps 0.9pc | Japan’s Nikkei hits highest since 1990 on weak yen, US optimism | Radiopharm receives positive early cancer treatment feedback from FDA |

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
    • FEEDID-51
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  • Charts
    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX rises, led by rally in health stocks | Paladin bounces back | Surefire Resources’ drilling confirms extension of mineralisation at Yidby gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 29 MAY: ASX jumps 0.9pc | Japan’s Nikkei hits highest since 1990 on weak yen, US optimism | Radiopharm receives positive early cancer treatment feedback from FDA |

  • Commentary
    • All
    • Market Recap
    • MrTopStep

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    Can We Get an Options Squeeze for “Fry-Day?”

    The Selloff Is Putting Us Back Into The Painful Range Trade

    A Few Individual Stock Trades Stand Out

    Like a Tractor in a Rainstorm, the S&P Is Stuck in the Mud

    ‘Thin to Win’ Is Today’s Theme

    3 Lessons From My Mistake. Opex & Powell Are on Tap!

    Finally a Break Out of the Range. Can The Move Last?

  • Education
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    • Trading Methods
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    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

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    Quantitative Statistics and Analysis, Make Better Trading Decisions – Free Webinar – Saturday 12:00pm ET

    Quantitative Statistics and Analysis, Make Better Trading Decisions – Free Webinar – Saturday 12:00pm ET

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: PINS Stock

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Trading the S&P 500 and the S&P Futures

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

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    Monthly Trading Time: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

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    Chart of the Day: Can Apple Stock Hit Record Highs?

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Can GOOGL Stock Stay Up?

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Home Analysis

3 Lessons From My Mistake. Opex & Powell Are on Tap!

Danny Riley by Danny Riley
May 19, 2023
in Analysis, Commentary, Futures, SP500, Stocks, Strategy, Tradechat
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We’re breaking the range but have one hurdle left  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

3 Lessons From My Mistake. Opex & Powell Are on Tap!

We’re breaking the range but have one hurdle left

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Our View

I want to explain how the Our Lean section works.

A bullish lean is a straight up buy-the-pullback approach. There’s also another component of selling the early rallies and buying the pullbacks, but obviously the latter is trickier if the ES is trending up.

A bearish lean is if the ES opens down, to buy the early weakness and sell the rallies and the more negative lean is to just outright sell rallies.

On Tuesday I started buying the NQ and I dragged 1 long NQ because the rotation was buying tech which has been spot on. After making a little Monday, I lost money Tuesday and made back the loss plus ended up having a good day Wednesday. Yesterday I started out buying 2 ES and 1 NQ just a few seconds after the open. I made small on the NQ and ended up making a few points on the ES after the last dip.

After that I broke all the rules.

I was not long and I started selling and I increased my size. Around 10:30, I told my chatroom that there were ‘buy stops’ in the ES from 4186.50 up to 4210 but by that time I gave back what I made Wednesday and a little more. You know that song “I’m only human?” Well that’s me.

After Wednesday’s close and watching the ES rally on Globex, I thought that ES 4200 was dead meat — but I still shortened it. Knowing the congestion of buy stops that had built up, the Lean should have only been to buy weakness.

The moral of the story is three fold:

  1. Don’t fight the trend

  2. Don’t start selling just because you’re not long

  3. If you miss it, get up and walk away — there is another trade coming

Our Lean

I can’t rule out some selloffs, but the ES should see higher. Today options expiration and all the short gamma positions should help that idea along. Remember, the ES has rallied 87 points this week (and 105 points from Tuesday’s low) so it could get whippy.

Most people think that the government will come to terms on the new budget, but it could fall short of expectations. The PitBull said it could be a “sell the news” event, which is reasonable, so I’m taking one day at a time.

Lastly, stock volatility could be higher than usual today as about $1.7 trillion of derivatives contracts tied to stocks and indexes are scheduled to expire, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs.

As for levels, two really stand out on the upside: 4220 and 4242-4250.

On the downside, active bulls want to see the ES hold 4200. Below that and they’ll want to see 4175 hold.

Remember, Powell’s on tap this morning and it’s Opex. So plenty of shenanigans are expected.

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES traded up to 4183.75 on Globex and opened Thursday’s regular session at 4167.25. After the open, the ES traded 4161.25 at 9:34, back and filled at the VWAP for the next 20 minutes and then traded up to a new high at 4198 at 11:11. After the high, the ES pulled back to the 4188 area, back and filled for the 25 minutes, traded up to a new high at 4199.25 at 11:57 sold off down to 4175.50 at 12:15, traded back up to 4190.75 and then slid down to a new low at 4172.50 at 2:01.

It was that low that set up the late afternoon rip. At 2:43 the ES traded 4188, pulled back a little, traded 4192 at 3:05, down-ticked and traded up to 4198.75 at 3:21 and then shot up to 4210, then up to 4215.50 as the early MIM showed $881 million to sell. The ES traded 4107.50 as the final 3:50 imbalance showed $936 million to sell and quickly flipped to $2.76 billion to buy. The ES traded 4112 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, it traded in a narrow range off the highs of the day and settled at 4215.50, up 44 points or up 1% on the day. The Nasdaq (NQ) and the market leader closed up 269 points at 13,912.50.

In the end it was a very good day for the index markets. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm all day. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was on the high end at 1.66 million contracts. After 4:00, the last two days someone has crossed thousands of ES. Wednesday after 4:00 25k ES traded in several big orders and 30k traded after 4:00 yesterday. I am not sure if it’s a large institution moving a futures position or an EFP, exchange for a physical.

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 57% Upside Volume

  • Advance/Decline: 59% Advance

  • VIX: ~$16

We’ve got a pretty low VIX and some interesting action lately after yesterday’s low-breadth squeeze. Thursday’s action felt more like shorts being forced to buy vs. longs sizing up and getting long.

Interesting action though and there’s no doubt Opex is playing some games here. DXY ripped yesterday right into our target zone. Bonds are making new lows on the move, now near 10-week lows, while the 10-year yield (TNX) is near 10-week highs.

While we’re getting a range break in the indices, our individual stocks enjoyed another wave of momentum yesterday. Cheers

S&P 500 — ES

Cleared 4200, stalled near our 4220 level as it sits between yesterday’s two “bolded” zones of 4198-4206 and 4242. Which one comes first?

ES Daily

  • Upside Levels: 4220, 4242-45

  • Downside levels: 4200, 4175

SPY

Daily-up and rip.

SPY Daily

  • Upside Levels: $421.22 (gap fill)

  • Downside Levels: $418, $414 to $416 (prior resistance)

SPY 15-min

On an intraday basis, I will be looking to buy a dip in the SPY and SPX. Above is the 15-min look. Ideally, I’d like the 30-min, as we are on Day 3 of the move.

However, I am keeping an eye on yesterday’s resistance level — $417.50 to $418 on SPY, 4175 to 4180 on SPX), along with the Q1 high and 10-ema on the 15-min chart. If that zone is tested early on, I will likely try a day-trade long in that zone.

SPX

  • Upside Levels: 4200, 4220, 4245

  • Downside Levels: 4187 (key for me), 4150-55 (big prior resistance)

One scenario that stands out for me is, can the SPX hold 4187? It doesn’t seem important, but if it breaks this area — and we give it a few points to find its footing, of course — and can’t regain it, then maybe we get a retest of that 4150 area.

QQQ & NQ

Not much more to say about these two. The Nasdaq has blown through every upside target we’ve laid out. Let’s let them reset before trying to re-engage.

DXY

DXY Daily

We covered DXY earlier in the week, but it gave a swift move into the 103.30 to 104 area that we had been talking about.

If we get some weakness today, it could act as a tailwind for the S&P. That said, yesterday’s DXY strength did not act as a tailwind, so don’t look at it as a 1:1 correlation.

For those long, congrats.

TLT

TLT Daily

Doesn’t have the best look to it as TLT continues to melt lower. Let’s see if it can find its footing in the $100 to $101 area. If it gets that far, I suspect buyers will emerge, if only just for a bounce.

Now down in five straight sessions.

 

Open Positions

  • Bold are the trades with recent updates.

  • Italics show means the trade is closed.

  • Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be B/E or better stops.)

  • ** = previous trade setup we are stalking.

Down to Runners in GE, CAH, LLY, ABBV, AAPL, MCD & BRK.B. Now Add META and AVGO.

  1. META — 3 trims and now new highs on the move. Down to a runner and look for $250 to $255.

  2. CRM — Took time, but got our $207-$208 trim down, now down to about a 40% position after $212.50 touch. Probably down to ¼ position if we see $215-ish now, but want runners for potential push to $220.

    1. Raise stops to Break-even.

  3. AVGO — long from weekly-up at ~$633 — first trim near $640, second trim at $645+, third trim $650 to $655+. Left room to go to $675-$677, which it just did. Out or if you want to leave a runner and stick with some, go for it.

  4. UBER — long from $37.50 or just below — First trim $38.50-ish, second trim down to ½ position at $39 to $39.25.

    1. Ideally we want $40 to $40.40 to get down to runners or out exit. Breakeven stops.

Go-To Watchlist

Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders

Relative strength leaders →

  1. MCD, PEP & KO, WMT, PG — XLP

  2. LLY, CAH

  3. NVDA, CRM

  4. MSFT, AAPL, META

  5. LULU, CMG

Relative weakness leaders →

  1. PYPL

  2. MET

  3. CF, MOS

  4. PFE

  5. GLOB

Economic Calendar

 
Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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