Charles St Research – $7 CPL
Buyer Beware: The rise (and fall) of Bitcoin
Two likely scenarios are about to play out for the world’s leading cryptocurrency in the next few months.
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Today’s Economic Calendar:
Today’s economic calendar includes Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM ET, Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM ET, 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET, 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET, 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET, 2-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
S&P 500 Futures: #SeptQuadWitch, #ES Up 166.50 Handles Since August 2, 2791.00 Low
The bulls have a lot to be thankful for and who they should be thanking are the short seller. With the US economy ‘steamrolling’ along one would think that’s all the markets need but as interest rates rise the doubters are questioning the longevity of the S&P and Nasdaq up trade but the only real threat to the upside of the market is the news headline algos and in most cases that only last a few days or a few weeks.
During Thursday night Globex session the ES sold off down to 2937.50 but rallied Friday morning up to 2947.00 just before Fridays 8:30 open. The first print of the day came in at 2945.00, trade up to a new high at 2947.00, pulled back to the vwap at2942.25, rallied and made three lower highs up to 2946.50 and then got hit by a few sell program down to 2938.25 as the NQ sold off. After the low, the ES rallied up to a lower high at 2944.00 and then retested the Globex low at 2937.50, rallied a little then made a new low at 2935.75. After 2:00 the MiM started to show over $400 million to buy and at 2:25 popped up to buy $1.62 billion to buy. Just as the MiM went to over $3 billion to buy the ES traded down to 2932.50, traded 2934.50 on the 3:00 close before settling the day at 2934.00 down 6.00 handles or .22%.
Daily HotSpots
HotSpots are times during the market trading session that for the past XX days have consistently moved in one direction or the other. These HotSpots are published each morning pre-market. The next day, a results post is also published and weekly a summary post.
CAUTION: This data is under development and provided only for research and teaching purposes
If you have questions about HotSpots you can contact us at info@mrtopstep.com.
Normal
Normal is a straight trading day count. A 5 day normal on a full-trading week would include Monday through Friday. A 5 day normal on a Monday holiday week would be the previous week’s Friday, skip Saturday, Sunday and holiday Monday and then Tuesday through Friday.
Early close days are considered non-trading in our normal count and are therefore skipped also.
| 09-24-2018 | 21-normal | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1245 | 1305 | 90 | 0.02 | 1.51 | |
| CL_F | short | 1414 | 1426 | -90 | -0.03 | -1.74 | |
| ES_F | long | 0932 | 0944 | 86 | 0.01 | 16.25 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1350 | 1402 | 95 | 0.01 | 64.00 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1254 | 1310 | -81 | -0.01 | -70.50 | |
| YM_F | long | 1424 | 1444 | 90 | 0.01 | 266.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1528 | 1551 | -86 | -0.01 | -190.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-08-23″,”2018-08-24″,”2018-08-27″,”2018-08-28″,”2018-08-29″,”2018-08-30″,”2018-08-31″,”2018-09-04″,”2018-09-05″,”2018-09-06″,”2018-09-07″,”2018-09-10″,”2018-09-11″,”2018-09-12″,”2018-09-13″,”2018-09-14″,”2018-09-17″,”2018-09-18″,”2018-09-19″,”2018-09-20″,”2018-09-21”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 12:45 until 13:05 ET has been profitable 90% of the time over the last 21 days.
| 09-24-2018 | 13-normal | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1245 | 1305 | 85 | 0.02 | 1.08 | |
| CL_F | short | 1003 | 1013 | -85 | -0.02 | -1.09 | |
| ES_F | long | 1348 | 1402 | 100 | 0.00 | 10.75 | |
| ES_F | short | 1203 | 1224 | -85 | -0.01 | -18.75 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1349 | 1402 | 100 | 0.01 | 55.00 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1004 | 1028 | -85 | -0.02 | -169.25 | |
| YM_F | long | 1105 | 1131 | 92 | 0.01 | 311.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1529 | 1550 | -92 | -0.01 | -131.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-09-05″,”2018-09-06″,”2018-09-07″,”2018-09-10″,”2018-09-11″,”2018-09-12″,”2018-09-13″,”2018-09-14″,”2018-09-17″,”2018-09-18″,”2018-09-19″,”2018-09-20″,”2018-09-21”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 12:45 until 13:05 ET has been profitable 85% of the time over the last 13 days.
| 09-24-2018 | 11-normal | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 0945 | 1003 | 91 | 0.01 | 0.97 | |
| CL_F | short | 1003 | 1013 | -91 | -0.01 | -0.84 | |
| ES_F | long | 1104 | 1130 | 100 | 0.01 | 29.25 | |
| ES_F | short | 1201 | 1219 | -91 | -0.01 | -17.25 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1050 | 1110 | 100 | 0.01 | 92.00 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1221 | 1235 | -91 | -0.01 | -41.75 | |
| YM_F | long | 1105 | 1131 | 100 | 0.01 | 327.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1201 | 1219 | -91 | -0.01 | -198.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-09-07″,”2018-09-10″,”2018-09-11″,”2018-09-12″,”2018-09-13″,”2018-09-14″,”2018-09-17″,”2018-09-18″,”2018-09-19″,”2018-09-20″,”2018-09-21”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 09:45 until 10:03 ET has been profitable 91% of the time over the last 11 days.
| 09-24-2018 | 8-normal | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1012 | 1020 | 88 | 0.01 | 0.68 | |
| CL_F | short | 1003 | 1012 | -100 | -0.02 | -1.13 | |
| ES_F | long | 1101 | 1125 | 100 | 0.01 | 24.25 | |
| ES_F | short | 0947 | 1000 | -100 | -0.00 | -11.50 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1101 | 1125 | 100 | 0.02 | 123.50 | |
| NQ_F | short | 0947 | 0955 | -100 | -0.01 | -79.00 | |
| YM_F | long | 1104 | 1130 | 100 | 0.01 | 265.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1045 | 1054 | -100 | -0.00 | -77.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-09-12″,”2018-09-13″,”2018-09-14″,”2018-09-17″,”2018-09-18″,”2018-09-19″,”2018-09-20″,”2018-09-21”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 10:12 until 10:20 ET has been profitable 88% of the time over the last 8 days.
| 09-24-2018 | 5-normal | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1012 | 1020 | 100 | 0.01 | 0.93 | |
| CL_F | short | 1132 | 1147 | -100 | -0.01 | -0.86 | |
| ES_F | long | 1054 | 1116 | 100 | 0.00 | 14.50 | |
| ES_F | short | 1044 | 1057 | -100 | -0.00 | -10.25 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1054 | 1116 | 100 | 0.01 | 78.50 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1004 | 1029 | -100 | -0.01 | -51.75 | |
| YM_F | long | 1034 | 1046 | 100 | 0.01 | 133.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 0947 | 1001 | -100 | -0.00 | -85.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-09-17″,”2018-09-18″,”2018-09-19″,”2018-09-20″,”2018-09-21”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 10:12 until 10:20 ET has been profitable 100% of the time over the last 5 days.
TaylorPlus
TaylorPlus, unlike the Taylor3 cycle count the TaylorPlus does not use Weekends, Holidays or Early close days as part of the cycle count. TaylorPlus counts finds the 3rd closest “tradeable” day, then the next 3rd until the cycle count is complete. Weekends, holidays and early-close are all considered non-tradeable days and are skipped in the count.
| 09-24-2018 | 21-taylorPlus | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1228 | 1236 | 86 | 0.02 | 1.34 | |
| CL_F | short | 1203 | 1216 | -86 | -0.02 | -1.55 | |
| ES_F | long | 0930 | 0948 | 81 | 0.01 | 39.25 | |
| ES_F | short | 1535 | 1558 | -86 | -0.01 | -31.75 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1053 | 1103 | 81 | 0.01 | 66.25 | |
| YM_F | long | 1029 | 1043 | 81 | 0.01 | 226.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1538 | 1558 | -90 | -0.02 | -366.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-06-26″,”2018-06-29″,”2018-07-02″,”2018-07-05″,”2018-07-11″,”2018-07-17″,”2018-07-20″,”2018-07-23″,”2018-07-26″,”2018-08-01″,”2018-08-07″,”2018-08-10″,”2018-08-13″,”2018-08-16″,”2018-08-22″,”2018-08-28″,”2018-08-31″,”2018-09-06″,”2018-09-12″,”2018-09-18″,”2018-09-21”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 12:28 until 12:36 ET has been profitable 86% of the time over the last 21 days.
| 09-24-2018 | 13-taylorPlus | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1025 | 1045 | 85 | 0.03 | 1.76 | |
| CL_F | short | 1203 | 1217 | -92 | -0.01 | -0.74 | |
| ES_F | long | 0930 | 0948 | 92 | 0.01 | 27.75 | |
| ES_F | short | 1540 | 1550 | -100 | -0.01 | -19.25 | |
| NQ_F | long | 0955 | 1015 | 85 | 0.01 | 66.25 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1025 | 1050 | -92 | -0.01 | -89.50 | |
| YM_F | long | 1036 | 1046 | 92 | 0.00 | 126.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1538 | 1558 | -100 | -0.01 | -198.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-07-26″,”2018-08-01″,”2018-08-07″,”2018-08-10″,”2018-08-13″,”2018-08-16″,”2018-08-22″,”2018-08-28″,”2018-08-31″,”2018-09-06″,”2018-09-12″,”2018-09-18″,”2018-09-21”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 10:25 until 10:45 ET has been profitable 85% of the time over the last 13 days.
| 09-24-2018 | 11-taylorPlus | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1334 | 1342 | 100 | 0.01 | 0.79 | |
| CL_F | short | 1129 | 1139 | -91 | -0.02 | -1.43 | |
| ES_F | long | 0931 | 0949 | 91 | 0.01 | 24.75 | |
| ES_F | short | 1540 | 1550 | -100 | -0.01 | -17.75 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1354 | 1402 | 91 | 0.00 | 23.50 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1540 | 1550 | -100 | -0.01 | -44.75 | |
| YM_F | long | 1500 | 1526 | 91 | 0.01 | 213.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1538 | 1558 | -100 | -0.01 | -179.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-08-07″,”2018-08-10″,”2018-08-13″,”2018-08-16″,”2018-08-22″,”2018-08-28″,”2018-08-31″,”2018-09-06″,”2018-09-12″,”2018-09-18″,”2018-09-21”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 13:34 until 13:42 ET has been profitable 100% of the time over the last 11 days.
| 09-24-2018 | 8-taylorPlus | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1247 | 1301 | 100 | 0.02 | 1.05 | |
| CL_F | short | 1041 | 1104 | -100 | -0.03 | -1.76 | |
| ES_F | long | 1500 | 1515 | 100 | 0.01 | 15.00 | |
| ES_F | short | 1539 | 1550 | -100 | -0.00 | -13.50 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1110 | 1125 | 100 | 0.01 | 100.50 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1018 | 1028 | -100 | -0.01 | -63.75 | |
| YM_F | long | 1036 | 1046 | 100 | 0.00 | 118.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1539 | 1550 | -100 | -0.00 | -125.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-08-16″,”2018-08-22″,”2018-08-28″,”2018-08-31″,”2018-09-06″,”2018-09-12″,”2018-09-18″,”2018-09-21”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 12:47 until 13:01 ET has been profitable 100% of the time over the last 8 days.
| 09-24-2018 | 5-taylorPlus | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1240 | 1304 | 100 | 0.02 | 1.08 | |
| CL_F | short | 1056 | 1122 | -100 | -0.04 | -2.70 | |
| ES_F | long | 0931 | 0951 | 100 | 0.00 | 14.25 | |
| ES_F | short | 1016 | 1035 | -100 | -0.01 | -16.25 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1110 | 1125 | 100 | 0.01 | 78.75 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1018 | 1035 | -100 | -0.01 | -95.25 | |
| YM_F | long | 1110 | 1119 | 100 | 0.01 | 140.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1044 | 1106 | -100 | -0.01 | -131.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-08-31″,”2018-09-06″,”2018-09-12″,”2018-09-18″,”2018-09-21”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 12:40 until 13:04 ET has been profitable 100% of the time over the last 5 days.
Once the length requirement is filled the analysis begins.
| 09-24-2018 | 21-taylor3 | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1228 | 1254 | 86 | 0.03 | 1.85 | |
| CL_F | short | 1406 | 1427 | -81 | -0.03 | -1.82 | |
| ES_F | long | 1053 | 1104 | 86 | 0.01 | 29.75 | |
| ES_F | short | 1039 | 1052 | -90 | -0.01 | -35.25 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1323 | 1344 | 86 | 0.01 | 92.00 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1040 | 1053 | -86 | -0.02 | -173.50 | |
| YM_F | long | 0936 | 1002 | 86 | 0.02 | 425.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1040 | 1051 | -90 | -0.01 | -337.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-06-22″,”2018-06-27″,”2018-07-02″,”2018-07-09″,”2018-07-12″,”2018-07-17″,”2018-07-20″,”2018-07-25″,”2018-07-30″,”2018-08-02″,”2018-08-07″,”2018-08-10″,”2018-08-15″,”2018-08-20″,”2018-08-23″,”2018-08-28″,”2018-08-31″,”2018-09-06″,”2018-09-11″,”2018-09-14″,”2018-09-19”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 12:28 until 12:54 ET has been profitable 86% of the time over the last 21 days.
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