Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES   8:30ET CPI,*  Fed’s Barkin speaks; 10:00ET Fed’s Barr speaks; 12:45ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:  

• Israeli military says it found signs hostages were held in Gaza hospital
  
• The Supreme Court is getting an ethics code
• Nasdaq’s “green Mondays” winning streak ends after 19 straight weeks  
  

World stocks and bonds nudged higher as global markets awaited US inflation data. World stocks have recovered almost 5% so far this month as they bet that major central
banks have ended a lengthy run of interest rate hikes.  The euro zone economy contracted marginally in the third quarter (-0.1% Q/Q), a new estimate confirmed, underlining expectations of a technical recession. Employment in the euro zone rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter
for a 1.4% year-on-year increase. Eurostat data showed 0.1% quarterly economic growth in France, 0.3% in Spain and 0.5% in Belgium, but that failed to offset a 0.1% quarterly slump in Germany, no growth in Italy, and contractions in Austria, Portugal and others.
Japan’s producer-price growth decelerated more than expected in October to the weakest in more than two years.                                   

EQUITIES: 
 

US equity futures fluctuated in muted trading ahead of CPI data which is expected at +0.1% and 3.3% year-over-year. Home Depot posted quarterly results that topped
Wall Street’s expectations, even as sales fell during the period. The home improvement chain’s results come as retailers, including Target and Walmart, begin to roll out their last earnings reports before the holiday shopping season kicks into gear. House
Speaker Mike Johnson’s plan to avert a government shutdown faces a key test today, as he tries to overcome hardline opposition from his own Republican conference before current funding for federal agencies expires on Friday.                   

Futures ahead of the data: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.25%, Russell 2000 +0.05%, Dow +0.05%. S&P 500 continues to flirt and hold key short term resistance at the .618 retrace. Nasdaq
breaks out above descending channel.

In pre-market trading, Beauty Health (SKIN) plummets 49% after the skin-care product maker cut its full-year net sales guidance and said its CEO is exiting. Fisker (FSR) drops 20% after
the EV startup’s third-quarter revenue missed analysts’ estimates and management is delaying its 10-Q filing.  Harrow (HROW) tumbles 26% after the eyecare pharmaceutical company reported a surprise net loss for the third quarter. ICL Group (ICL) gains 4% after
the Tel-Aviv-based agricultural chemicals maker was upgraded to overweight at Barclays, along with Mosaic and Nutrien, on their exposure to potash. On Holding (ONON) slides as much as 9% after the Swiss shoemaker’s sales growth outlook for the current quarter
fell short. Snap (SNAP) rises 5% after the Information reports Amazon.com agreed to let its users shop for products directly from ads on the Snapchat app. Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK) gains 5.8% after Glencore agreed to buy a majority stake in the company’s
coal business.

European gauges were steady, as investors assessed improving economic expectations for Germany and looked ahead to US inflation data. The November German ZEW survey showed a continued
improvement in the headline expectations index, which rose to 9.8, up from -1.1 previously. Wages in Britain grew slightly less quickly in the three months to September, official data showed. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index is trading flat after giving up some early
gains with REITs outperforming while Telecom and Energy decline. Glencore Plc gained as much as 4% after it agreed to buy a majority stake in Teck Resources Ltd.’s coal business for almost $7 billion. Vodafone Group fell over 3% after reporting weaker profits
in southern Europe.  Delivery Hero SE rose after laying out a more optimistic outlook for the year. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX +0.4%, CAC +0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.4%. REITs +1.1%, Autos +0.9%, Retail +0.6%. Telecom -1%, Energy -0.8%, Financial Services -0.6%.         

Asian stocks advanced, led by a rally in South Korean shares, while investors awaited a meeting between US and Chinese leaders. MSCI’s Asia Pacific equity index advanced 0.3%, driven
higher by material and energy shares. Korea’s Kospi Index jumped more than 1%, boosted by tech and EV battery stocks. Japan also advanced as positive earnings and a weak yen supported the market. Chinese stocks fluctuated following data that showed the nation’s
credit expansion remained weak in October.  China plans to provide at least $137B of low-cost financing to the nation’s urban village renovation and affordable housing programs, Bloomberg News reported. India was closed for a holiday. Kospi +1.2%, Vietnam
+0.9%, ASX 200 +0.8%, Taiwan +0.4%, Topix +0.4%, Shanghai +0.3%, CSI 300 +0.05%. Singapore and Thailand were down less than 0.1%, Hang Seng Index -0.2%.     

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve, although overnight price action was muted with focus on October inflation data due at 8:30ET, while at least four
Fed speakers are scheduled. US yields richer by up to 2bp across long-end of the curve which leads gains on the day, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by ~1bp.  10-year yields around 4.62%, 2-year yield ~5.03%. Investors have turned the most bullish on bonds
since the global financial crisis, a BofA survey showed.     

METALS: 
   

Gold steadied ahead of US inflation figures that may influence the outlook for monetary policy. The numbers will be closely watched for indications of whether the
Federal Reserve will need to raise rates again, which would be bearish for gold.  Hedge funds cut back on bullish bets across precious metals last week, a sign of growing bearishness toward the broader space. Spot gold -0.1%, silver +0.3%.         

ENERGY:  

Oil steadied as the International Energy Agency indicated the market isn’t as tight as previously expected, even as demand continues to climb. The IEA raised its
oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next despite an expected slowdown in economic growth in nearly all major economies. The global oil supply shortfall is set to shrink by 30% to 900,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter, the IEA said in its monthly
report. The IEA will change how it accounts for crude oil supply in its weekly report from tomorrow.  The Energy Information Administration will release two weeks of American inventories data on Wednesday. WTI -0.1%, Brent -0.2%, US Nat Gas -0.2%, RBOB -0.1%.
      

CURRENCIES:   

In currencies, the US dollar index was down slightly while the euro hit a fresh 15-year high versus the yen. Sterling was briefly supported by UK jobs data that showed
Britain’s labor market held up in the face of an economic slowdown. Traders are watching to see how the US inflation data impacts the yen. Some analysts have said a stronger-than-expected print may push the Japanese currency to a 33-year low and potentially
trigger an intervention by the central bank. Japan’s finance minister has warned repeatedly this week that the government will respond to excessive moves. Australia’s consumer confidence slumped in November following the Reserve Bank’s resumption of interest-rate
increases. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD +0.3%, EURJPY +0.25%, USDJPY -0.05%, AUDUSD -0.15%, USDNOK +0.4%.

Bitcoin -0.5%, Ethereum -1.5%.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Agiliti (AGTI) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $10
• Anglogold (AU) Raised to Hold at HSBC
• AspenTech (AZPN) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $202
• Capri Holdings (CPRI) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $57
• Fortrea (FTRE) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $38
• ICL Group (ICL IT) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
• J M Smucker (SJM) Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein
• Kraft Heinz (KHC) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein
• Mosaic (MOS) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
• Nutrien (NTR CN) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
• Surgery Partners (SGRY) Raised to Outperform at Cowen; PT $35
• Take-Two (TTWO) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $175
• Downgrades
• 5e Advanced Materials (FEAM) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $3
• Aclaris (ACRS) Cut to Neutral at Cantor
• ARKO (ARKO) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $8
• Beauty Health (SKIN) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Cut to Market Perform at Cowen; PT $2.50
• Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
• Cut to Underweight at Piper Sandler; PT $2
• Cara Therapeutics (CARA) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $1
• CF Industries (CF) Cut to Underweight at Barclays
• Corteva (CTVA) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
• ECN Capital (ECN CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$2.75
• Enthusiast Gaming (EGLX CN) Cut to Speculative Buy at Canaccord; PT C$1.50
• Freyr Battery (FREY) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $2
• Softchoice (SFTC CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$20
• Vicarious Surgical (RBOT) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Initiations
• Abivax (ABVX FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $20
• ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $15
• Alteryx (AYX) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $40
• AMD (AMD) Rated New Buy at Roth MKM; PT $125
• Conoco (COP) Rated New Accumulate at Johnson Rice; PT $135
• Docebo (DCBO CN) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT C$77.41
• HubSpot (HUBS) Rated New Overweight at Capital One; PT $525
• Informatica (INFA) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $25
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) Rated New Buy at Roth MKM; PT $60
• ON Semi (ON) Rated New Buy at Roth MKM; PT $75
• Real Good Food (RGF) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $6
• SPS Commerce (SPSC) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $200
• Vistagen Therapeutics Inc (VTGN) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $12

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG