Market Review
Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3233.50 | Opening Print: 3223.00 |
| Low: 3181,25 | High 3230.00 |
| Volume: 440K | Low: 3192.00 at 11:02 |
| ES Settlement 3220.00, +36 handles or +1.13% | |
| Total Volume 1.8 Million |
S&P 500 RECAP 7/15/2020
Buy Russell 2000, S&P 500 / Sell NASDAQ / FAANG
The ES traded 3223.00 on yesterday’s 8:30 futures open, upticked and then sold off down to 3211.50 at 9:36, rallied back up to 3225.25 then sold back off down to 3210.50 at 9:04. After the low, the ES shot up to 3230.00, traded down below the vwap down to 3209.25, and had one last push down to a new low of 3192.00 at 11:02. After the low, the ES short covered, back and filled and made a series of higher highs all the way up to a 3221.75 ‘double top’ at 1:20 and then sold off 21 handles down to 3201.00 at 2:12. The ES traded 3215.25 at 2:30, traded 3221.50 as the 2;50 cash imbalance showed $44 million to buy. On the 3:00 cash close, the ES traded 3218.25 and settled at 3220.00, up 36 handles or +1.13% on the day.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, there was a very large rotation away from tech into the Russell 200 and into the S&P. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was high at 1.9 million contracts traded.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
MiM was a bit lost yesterday, showing a buy until about 15:30 where it paired off to a sell. The Market saw something it liked at 15:20 and drove higher into the 15:50 reveal, which was fairly neutral. It was the 15:55 candle that produced the largest 5-minute volume of the day selling off the 30-point move into the close.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid-19
We continue to track Covid-19 across all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico to gain a better understanding of what is happening. While detected cases continue to expand, we are not seeing the equivalent expansion in hospitalizations and deaths. Our table uses 7-day averages and takes a 5-day linear regression slope in order to detect changes as quickly as possible. We score each state by a normalized slope and ranking in each category (infected, admitted, and deaths).
Vacationland. Maine has 1.3M year-round residents and has been consistently toward the top of our best performer list. In a normal year, Maine hosts 12M visitors during the summer months. The summer influx has been a source of tension in the state, importing livelihood vs the virus.
As part of the Northeast cluster, Maine quickly shut down schools, jobs, and the border in March and required 14-day quarantines for anyone coming in from out of state. That seemed to keep the Northeast infections from migrating into Maine. Slowly the quarantine restriction has been lifted for neighboring states of New Hampshire and Vermont. New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey also become part of the trusted list. That did not fair well with New England partner states of Rhode Island and Massachusetts, still required to quarantine for 14 days or produce papers showing a negative COVID test in the last 72 hours.
While Rhode Island rode out the April hump you can see that new up-turn in the last week. That is keeping Rhode Island on the Maine ban list, and becomes a worry of a 2nd ride for the smallest state with the largest offical name. We want to put the state of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations on our watch list.
We continue to focus on our top 3, Florida (20M pop), Texas (30M), and California (40M) looking at daily deaths, but more importantly, changes in the count.
Florida’s numbers continue to outpace the other two states with acceleration in their daily additions going from 48 daily deaths just a week ago to 112, 2.5x growth. California was not able to keep the positive move from the day before but of the top three, it is still doing the best. Texas put in an almost 2x growth.
For all three states, today’s over/under should help us discern any trend change. We want the line at least flattened and for that to happen the numbers have to come in as below:
Over / Under
These are the over/under numbers for 7/16/2020. In order to push the 7-day average lower, today’s reported numbers need to be lower than the target number. A new case or death number that is higher will increase the 7-day average.
Yesterday’s over/under numbers and actual are also in the table.
| Yesterday | Yesterday | Today | Today | |
| State | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths |
| Florida | 9,989/10,181 | 48/112 | 8,935 | 120 |
| Texas | 9,979/7,307 | 60/110 | 9,782 | 105 |
| California | 11,694/11,126 | 98/140 | 7,031 | 149 |
| New York | 692/831 | 20/9 | 584 | 20/9 |
Use today’s number to watch the releases to determine the trend.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your mask!
Chart of the Day
Top Stories on MTS Overnight:
Our View
U.S. Considers China Travel Ban On Communist Party
You just can’t believe everything you read. Twenty minutes before this headline came out there was a Tweet that said that President Trump wants to lower hostilities with China then this headline came out around 7:00 pm ‘ US reported to consider travel ban on China Communist party’ The ES was trading around the 3221 level and dropped 14 handles down to 3212.75 in a matter of a few minutes.
Our view, the ES acts like it’s making a short term top. It also feels like any bad headline could send it straight down. That doesn’t mean I think the high is in, it’s not, but clearly the future is in need of some type of sell-off / pullback and a few days of back and fill before pressing above 3250 up to 3320. Our lean is to sell a higher open and look for the 10:30-11:00 low to cover and get long. If the ES is lower this morning 3180 should be a good buy area initially.
Lastly, The PITBULL has a rule that the 3rd Thursday in July to the 3rd Thursday in August tend to be an overly volatile, weak period for stocks.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
Did you know that your premium membership gives you access to our Market Vitals? Click on the image below and get today’s key levels.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
No responses yet