Market Review
Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3218.25 | Opening Print: 3217.75 |
| Low: 3194.75 | High 3225.25 |
| Volume: 250K | Low: 3194.76 |
| ES Settlement 3212.75 | |
| Total Volume 1.25 Million |
S&P 500 RECAP Friday : 7/17/2020
The ES traded higher overnight and traded 3217.75 on Friday morning’s 8:30 futures open. After the open, the ES printed up to 3219.25 and by 9:33 am sold off down to its daily low of 3196.50. Before the low there were some small rips and dips but as the NQ reversed the ES eventually went straight down. After the low, the ES traded up to 3204, pulled back down to a higher low of 3199.75 at 9:45 and twenty-five minutes later traded up to 3213.50. After the push, the ES dipped back below the vwap to 3206.26 and then the ES rallied up 3216.25. From 11:30 to 1:00 the ES back and filled in a 6-handle range and at 1:22 traded up to a new daily high of 3220.25. The ES traded 3218.50 at 2:00, traded 3221 at 2:30 and traded 3219.50 as the 2;50 cash imbalance showed $900 million to sell. On the 3:00 cash close the ES traded 3215.50 and settled at 3112.75 on the 3:15 futures close, up 16 handles or up 0.50% on the day.
In terms of the ESs overall tone, the ES sold off 20 handles early and rallied and then rallied 30 handles only to fall back on the close. I guess the best way to describe the tone would be ‘mixed’. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was the lowest of the week at 1.25 million contracts traded.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
About 1B to sell on the Friday OPEX MiM. That sold the markte down about 7 points and recovered about 50% of that going into the close.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid-19
We continue to track Covid-19 across all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico to gain a better understanding of what is happening. While detected cases continue to expand, we are not seeing the equivalent expansion in hospitalizations and deaths. Our table uses 7-day averages and takes a 5-day linear regression slope in order to detect changes as quickly as possible. We score each state by a normalized slope and ranking in each category (infected, admitted, and deaths).
Washington State revisited. After a nice drop off toward the end of June the Washington effort to contain the virus has failed.
Washington state has a face mask mandate, but a mandate does not mean it is going to happen. The growth in infections has been mostly amongst the young who may be less compliant in social distancing and face mask wearing.
Washington, like the other states, suffers from data collection and sharing which after social distancing is key to containing and managing the contagion. The data effort should be 24×7 all hands on deck. Washington is home to Amazon AWS and Microsoft, plenty of resources.
Daily hospital admissions have just started to rise in Washington, but deaths are sure to follow as we have seen from FL, TX, CA, AZ, ND ……
We continue to focus on our top 3, Florida (20M pop), Texas (30M), and California (40M), looking at daily deaths, but more importantly, changes in the count.
California had shown a drop in new deaths that heading into the weekend was quite encouraging. That drop has turned into a flattening which is still better than what we are seeing in Florida and Texas which at this time show no abatement but the continued growth of about 45% week over week. If that rate continues flat we should see some 200+ numbers for Florida this week. That will be a headline number. (Florida numbers hit the wires around 10:30 am ET each day).
For all three states, today’s over/under should help us discern any trend change. We want the line at least flattened and for that to happen the numbers have to come in as below:
Over / Under
These are the over/under numbers for 7/20/2020. In order to push the 7-day average lower, today’s reported numbers need to be lower than the target number. A new case or death number that is higher will increase the 7-day average.
Yesterday’s over/under numbers and actual are also in the table.
| Yesterday | Yesterday | Today | Today | |
| State | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths |
| Florida | 11,433 / 11,466 | 92 / 156 | 12,624 / 10,347 | 35 / 92 |
| Texas | 9,765 / 10,291 | 95 / 174 | 5,655 | 43 |
| California | 7,798 / 9,986 | 140 / 130 | 8,358 | 23 |
| New York | 786 / 776 | 9 / 10 | 557 | 10 |
Use today’s number to watch the releases to determine the trend.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your mask!
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Our View
S&P 500 ‘ Misery Index’
The ugliest rally in history continues to defy all odds. As of Friday close, the S&P is off just 0.20% in 2020 and tech is up 17%. While the COVID19 pandemic has been a boon for some sectors it’s also been a bust for others. For instance, the energy sector is down as much as 39% on the year while the financials are up 17%. The list goes on and on, Walmart is up 11% and Dollar General is up 21%. iPhone sales are projected to register a fall to $22.21 billion in Apple’s most recent quarter and Freddie Mac is down 29%. What does it all mean? It means that there are large gaps between some very important sectors but right now the markets are overlooking all of it. Will this current rally continue? I think so but when it turns it’s going to get very, very ugly.
Our view, we lean to selling the early rallies and buying the pullbacks with tight stops.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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