Danny Riley, aka MrTopStep
Danny Riley and I met more than 5 years ago, but I personally began working alongside of him two years ago. I had been around some of the well known traders, and have seen many of the trading products that float around the internet, but there was something different about Danny.
The difference was that Danny is personal. I quickly saw how his eagerness to help people who come in contact with him on social media, IMPRO forum, and elsewhere…I would often hear him repeat the words of the famous CBOT bond trader Charlie D:
“It’s up to us, that know how to trade, to help the next young traders.”
When we first met Danny saw potential in me as a trader. He would reminded me of what the Pitbull often said, “If you want to make the money, you have to put in the work”, and I have known Danny to be working from before sunrise to midnight during the week, and even on weekends.
In the process, he taught me that trading was not merely about the charts or their indicators, but about understanding how the market works, learning it’s personality, and thinking outside the box. He stressed to me to keep a notebook, or Google document, and journal everything I learned, and every idea I had.
There is also a human side to Danny. He was my first friend to offer support during the most troublesome profession/personal time in my life. I have noticed that he tries to find the best in people, and will invest in them to reach their full potential, and be everything they can. This is the Danny that I know.
Friday’s NFP “Old School” Counter Trend Day
Recently, someone hit MrTopStep on Twitter, and seemed to minimize our old school approach. While we agree that the markets have changed, and traders must adapt, we still see much use in many of the rules we learned on the trading floor.
Some time ago MrTopStep produced an e-book of trading rules that Danny Riley learned from the floor going back to the late 1980’s. The book is free and can be downloaded by following the link below…
Download The MrTopStep Trading Rules e-book here
Many pundits and gurus attempt to capitalize on every piece of information and flow. Not Danny, I learned from him the importance of giving back to help traders, that’s why at no cost he writes the Opening Print, it’s why he puts out flow on social media, and it’s why he makes his personal email address available and invites traders to reach out to him.
Fridays jobs report was a good example of how MrTopStep sees things in contrast to other traders, analysts, and commentators. In Friday’s Opening Print, and on the radio show, he spoke of the Counter Trend Friday rule that’s in the e-book mentioned above. Going into Thursday’s close the S&P futures had failed by 65 handles in two sessions, leaving traders concerned heading into Friday’s NFP number. However, before Thursday’s close, Danny mentioned on the message board that the risk was higher going into Friday. Then after the initial reaction to the job’s number on Friday, the futures were heading lower into the cash session, with the S&P looking it’s weakest, MrTopStep took a Twitter poll with nearly all participants responding with a belief that the ESZ would trade lower. With the sentiment so bearish, that was when Danny called the flip, and he called it early.
08:41:26 (driley) Brian and I made the Counter Trend Friday rule up on the floor years ago
09:35:02 (driley) ESZ sells off after the jobs report, 360k ESZ trade, everyone sells and put in the buy stops because they can’t hold over the weekend and the first trade of the day is up to knock out some of the weak shorts
Dboy (9:40:26 AM): long 55’s
Dboy (9:41:09 AM): closed 1/3 at 59.00
Dboy ( 9:46:45 AM ): took off 1/3 at 67.00, 63.00 stop on the remainder
Dboy ( 9:55:50 AM ): took off the rest @ 69.00 +14 handles
There are many services that exist, some good, but many scammers. The ones who teach charts, technical analysis, and indicators, are a dime a dozen. But I have not seen anyone out there who uses their experience, feel, and rules, not based on any charts or indicators, but analyzing price action based on the feel that 30 years in the S&P pits give. While there will never be another Danny Riley, his market feel can be apprehended over time, take that and combine it with what you know about charts and you’ll have a method to guide you in any market atmosphere. Here is what a former head of a prop desk at Goldman Sachs had to say about Danny on Friday:
Rule #1. Always go with Danny’s gut. Rule #2. Always go with Danny’s rules. He said this yesterday, the sell off would add fuel for buyers.
Can we trade today’s markets by only depending on these old school rules? Maybe not, however, this is why Danny has adapted to using the MarketDelta footprint charts, and reading order flow from the screen now that the floor has lost so much energy. This is why MrTopStep has a collective of traders such as Tim Haefke of TopNotch Trading, and William Blount, who retain many of the old school methods. At the same time, there are those such as Stewart Solaka of ChicagoStock Trading who represents a younger crowd, implementing much of the modern approach.
Our rules may not appeal to everyone, our tools may not have a place in everyone’s toolbox, but historical patterns that have led us to today’s success should not be overlooked or ignored. At the end of the day, trading is much like life, where one has to find a balance between holding on to what was useful yesterday, while adapting to what is working today.
In Asia 7 out of 11 markets closed higher (Shanghai Comp -0.15%), and in Europe 11 out of 12 markets are trading higher (DAX +1.80%). This week has a lower number of economic reports, there are only 16 economic reports, 10 T-bill or T-bond auctions or announcements, and one Federal Reserve bank president speaks. Today’s economic calendar includes the Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure, St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard speech on the economic outlook, in Muncie, Indiana, and Consumer Credit.
BULLS TAKE OVER
Our View: Fridays jobs rip was another confirmation that the markets have already adjusted to the idea of a Dec 16 rate hike. Say whatever you like, call it what you want, but Friday’s rip was an upside blood bath for the bears. The higher lows continue, 1831, 1861, 1998.50 and 2040, this my friends, is a ladder to higher prices. I think if the ESZ15 gets above 2105 it’s off to the races, and win, lose, or draw, it’s 2150 and 2200 at years end for MrTopStep.
As always; please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
- In Asia 7 out of 11 markets closed higher : Shanghai Comp. +0.34%, Hang Seng -0.15%, Nikkei +0.99%
- In Europe 11 of 12 markets are trading higher : CAC +1.56%, DAX +1.80%, FTSE +0.40% at 6:00am CT
- Fair Value: S&P -1.26 , NASDAQ -.90 , Dow -11.50
- Total Volume: 2.25mil ESZ and 15k SPZ
[s_static_display]
No responses yet