Issue 2,008 – Copyright (c) 2025. All rights reserved. Keeping WB’s Clock Alive Since 2017.
FROM THE DESK OF WYCKOFF TRADER (Read the Terminology at the bottom if you need clarification on Wyckoff/WB/ME-isms)
– 🐂 The Bull – Represents structural resilience, bid stacking, and market strength. If liquidity holds, the bull carries the weight
– 🐻 The Bear – Symbolizes liquidity exhaustion, price vulnerability, and market weakness. If bids vanish, the bear drags the market down.
– 👻 “GHOST – If the market doesn't have breath, it will fall due to the
lack of structure under the pressure of constant changing of belief.” – Wyckoff Trader
THE LONG GAME (if you dare to read)
What I was talking about in 2020; 2026/27, 2033, 2055
What Altman Says Comes Next: Altman’s warning wasn’t just about fake videos. It was about what happens when so many of us outsource our decisions to algorithms few people understand.
“I do still think there are going to be some really strange or scary moments,” he said, stressing that just because AI hasn’t yet caused a catastrophic event “doesn’t mean it never will.” "Billions of people talking to the same brain" could create "weird, societal-scale things," he said. Put another way, it could lead to unexpected chain reactions, causing consequential shifts in information, politics, and communal trust that ripple faster than anyone can control. Despite these broad shifts affecting us all, Altman argued against regulations for this technology. “Most regulation probably has a lot of downside,” he said. Though Altman also said he supports "very careful safety testing" for what he called “extremely superhuman” models. "I think we'll develop some guardrails around it as a society," he said.
THE SHORT GAME (Myth → Meaning → Mechanics of the market)
— MYTH MIND WORM IN THE VALLEY — 🧠 Silicon Valley’s Mind Worm: Agentic AI and Compute Fetishism — by Trader Guy/AI
The dominant obsession in Silicon Valley right now is agentic AI—systems that don’t just assist but act autonomously, making decisions, initiating actions, and even negotiating on behalf of users or companies. This is more than just smarter chatbots; it’s about building synthetic agents that can handle workflows, manage relationships, and even simulate emotional resonance.
But beneath that ambition lies a deeper worm: compute supremacy. The race for access to massive compute power has turned into a geopolitical and corporate arms race. OpenAI signed a $300 billion deal with Oracle for compute access, despite being backed by Microsoft. Meta inked a $10 billion deal with Google Cloud. Microsoft is now offering Anthropic’s models to its customers. These tangled alliances reveal a mind worm that’s not just about building smarter AI—it’s about controlling the infrastructure that makes it possible.
— MEANING – HOW THIS EFFECTS THE STREET —
MAN (RISK OFF): GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN | MACHINE (RISK OFF): AVGO, NVDA, META, TSLA
Yes, about the same as before
— MECHANICS – (though the eyes of the Composite Man | WB | ME)
PROSE AND THE NUMBAHS
The day was S3H and well the clock showed you the way!
Spill up sealed at 9:50 am. The AM LOW was center time at 10:20 am. This sets up a strong MID AM at 11:30 center time. The lunch low is just under that at 12:30 pm. This is indicating a strong finish as the low us just a tad lower. Mid pm is center time at 2:30 pm. With the LAST HOUR LOW pulling back slightly to close just off the highs.
Trader Guy had a good take:
🧠 What’s Driving the Tape?
• Earnings optimism: Companies are beating expectations, and forward guidance remains strong.
• Fed policy shift: The December pivot toward rate cuts has lifted sentiment, but also introduced volatility.
• Equity overweight: Institutional investors are heavily allocated to equities—levels not seen since pre-2008. That’s bullish, but also a warning signal if sentiment turns.
🔍 Volume at the Highs: What the Tape Is Whispering
According to Kingsview’s capital-weighted volume and capital flows breached their own resistance levels before price did, which is rare and powerful. That means the volume isn’t just confirming the move—it’s leading it.
• Friday’s session showed a 95% inflow day, a decisive show of strength.
• Weekly flows were nearly 2-to-1 in favor of inflows, suggesting institutional conviction.
• Supply lines supported the advance, meaning volume wasn’t just passive—it was actively pushing through prior resistance.
This setup implies that smart money is already positioned, and retail may be late to the party. The breakout isn’t just technical—it’s being choreographed by capital flows that have already marked their scroll.
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They say you can only make a decision based upon who you are; or after your decision—who you were. You have freedom to choose but you can only choose based upon who you are at your present—space time moment but you have total and absolute freedom to choose who you will become! — Wyckoff Trader
Heraclitus. 🔥 “No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man.” In our case the same trade.
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📜 Good morning. Today is SERIES S4H. IFFY
🎛️ Tape Read: 🏛️🐂💲 "Looking good, but…" – Neutral (cautious optimism) Bulls have taken out the highs. Let's see if they can hold it.
🧭 Honing Turns: Spill down → AM HIGH → MID AM LOW → lunch high → mid pm low → LAST HOUR HIGH.
SERIES Day (all times EST New York City)
🕒 Spill (9:30 to 9:57)
🕒 AM (10:00 to 10:57)
🕒 MID AM (11:00 to 11:57)
🕒 lunch (12:00 to 1:57)
🕒 mid pm (2:00 to 2:57)
🕒 LAST HOUR (3:00 to 3:57)
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Dates: 📅 October 5 Beaver Moon 8:19 a.m. Fall Solstice (Equinox) 📅 September 22 2:19 p.m. (all times Est)
********************* Terminology *********************
"Looking good, Louis! Looking good!" – Bullish (high confidence)
"Looking good, but…" – Neutral (cautious optimism)
"Things just got ugly, Louis. Very ugly." (Black Swan)
"It's looking real bad for the bulls, Louis. Real bad." – Bearish (pessimistic)
"It's looking real bad for the bears, Louis. Real bad." – Bullish (optimistic)
🐟 (Minnows)
⏳ Lifespan: 1–2 years
💧 Liquidity Impact: Momentary—tiny, rapid entries and exits
🔄 Interpretation: Their short biological life mirrors *fleeting market presence*. They appear as *blips* on the liquidity radar—numerous but not lasting.
🐟 (Sardines)
⏳ Lifespan: 3–4 years
💧 Liquidity Impact: Mid-range, directional waves
🔄 Interpretation: Like their lifespan, they sustain presence a bit longer—*waves of flow* with follow-through. Not permanent, but *tactically significant*.
🐟 (Tuna)
⏳ Lifespan: 15–40 years
💧 Liquidity Impact: Deep, anchoring, strategic
🔄 Interpretation: Their long biological endurance maps to *long-dwelling liquidity*. When they enter, they sit, influence, and stabilize. They're duration-defined presences**, just like their species.
🧖 "Dropping the Soap"
🏀 "Running with the ball"
👵 "momma got thrown from the train!"
📈 Up Turn – Higher highs and higher lows.
📉 Down Turn – Lower highs and lower lows.
↔️ Chop Turn – Bulls and Bears equally balanced.
💥 dropped it like it was hard (no bid stacking, no liquidity, hitting the bid)
🏀↓ smack it down or 🏀↑ bid it up (indicates a potential change in trend)
🧽 adding liquidity back into the market
Richard D. Wyckoff; and his Composite Man. Don't mix the methods.
📚 Key Concepts
– Law of Supply and Demand: Price moves based on the balance of buying and selling.
– Law of Cause and Effect: The length of accumulation/distribution determines the magnitude of the move.
– Law of Effort vs. Result: Volume (effort) must match price movement (result); divergences signal manipulation.
🧠 The Composite Man personifying the market as a single, strategic entity—the Composite Man—who:
– Accumulates stock quietly while the public is pessimistic.
– Pushes prices up to attract attention and volume.
– Distributes holdings at higher levels while the public buys in.
– Then lets the price fall, starting the cycle again.
📈 Accumulation Phases (Composite Man Buying)
| Phase | Description | Composite Man’s Intent
| A | (PS), (SC), (AR), (ST) | Absorbing supply, testing depth of selling pressure
| B | Building a Cause | Accumulating quietly, creating a trading range, shaking out weak hands
| C | Spring or Shakeout | Final test of support, false breakdown to trap bears and force capitulation
| D | Markup Begins | Breakout above resistance, demand dominates, public begins to enter
| E | Distribution Preparation | Price moves rapidly, Composite Man begins to sell into strength
📉 Distribution Phases (Composite Man Selling)
| Phase | Description | Composite Man’s Intent
| A | (PSY), (BC), (AR), (ST) | Testing demand, beginning to unload inventory
| B | Building a Cause | Distributing quietly, creating a range, trapping late buyers
| C | Upthrust or UTAD | False breakout to lure in buyers before reversal
| D | Markdown Begins | Breakdown below support, supply overwhelms demand
| E | Accumulation Preparation | Price declines rapidly, Composite Man begins to buy again
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