Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Retail Sales, Import Prices, Export Prices; 9:15ET Industrial Production, Capacity
Utilization; 10:00ET Business Inventories; 3:00ET Fed’s Logan speaks

US JAN. RETAIL SALES FALL 0.9% M/M; EST. -0.2%

Highlights and News:  

• US government spent $642B in January, $142 billion higher than last year
  
• UK, US see room for more collaboration on trade, tech, culture
• China Invites Jack Ma, DeepSeek Founder to Meet Top Leaders
• TikTok Is Back on Apple, Google App Stores
• The EU is cutting back tech rules to boost AI investment
  
• Nippon Steel will maintain its plan to buy US Steel
  

Global stocks held near record highs after President Trump said reciprocal tariffs would not be immediately imposed, suggesting room for negotiations. Adding to optimism
are signs that Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products may turn out to be less drastic than feared.  The delay in imposing higher US tariffs is bolstering global shares and emerging-market assets. China’s credit expansion in January exceeded expectations, with
5.1 trillion yuan of new loans, the most for the month of January on record. The euro-area economy managed to eke out 0.1% growth at the end of last year, according to Eurostat’s revised estimate.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures edged lower at the end of a week dominated by headlines on trade tariffs and Ukraine peace efforts, a slew of earnings and more evidence of stubborn inflation. The Trump
administration is seeking to renegotiate awards under the US CHIPS and Science Act and has indicated that there will be delays in some forthcoming semiconductor funding allocations. Meanwhile, strategists at Bank of America said faster inflation in the US
could actually prove positive for markets because it will force Trump to adopt less severe tariffs.  Intel shares rose in premarket trading, putting the chipmaker’s stock on track for its biggest weekly gain since at least 1982. The shares have rallied more
than 26% this week on reports of the US government possibly getting involved with a plan involving both Intel and TSMC.

Futures ahead of the bell/data: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.2%, DJI -0.2%

In pre-market trading, Airbnb shares jump 14% after the home-rental company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a positive outlook. Applied
Materials fell 4.8% after the semiconductor equipment maker forecast second quarter net sales that fell short of estimates. Intel shares rise 1.9%, putting the chipmaker’s stock on track for its biggest weekly gain since at least 1982.  Moderna shares fall
4.6% after the drugmaker recorded another quarterly loss, aided by an unexpected charge for a canceled manufacturing contract. Nu Skin shares gain 24% after the beauty and wellness company issued a stronger-than-anticipated profit outlook for the year.  SoundHound
AI, Serve Robotics and Nano-X Imaging shares tumble in premarket trading after Nvidia filed a 13F indicating that the chipmaker exited its stakes in the companies. Meanwhile, WeRide ADRs surge 107% and Nebius Group shares are up 6.1% after Nvidia revealed
positions in the companies. Palo Alto Networks shares fall 5.1% after the network security solutions company forecast third quarter adjusted EPS that came in lower than expectations. Roku jumped 15% after the streaming-video platform company reported fourth-quarter
results that beat expectations. Twilio slid 11% after the software firm’s first-quarter forecast fell short of estimates.

European gauges are mixed with the pan-European STOXX 600 index holding near record levels as speculation grows that new tariffs threatened by President Trump could
mainly be intended as a negotiating tool. As speculation grows of a ceasefire in Ukraine, European equities have room for “modest further re-rating” in 2025 given their still-wide discount to the US, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. Miners, technology
and autos outperform while insurance and telecoms lead laggards. Luxury stocks were a bright spot in Europe as Hermès rallied to a record after its holiday-season sales surged. Umicore SA shares dropped as much as 12% after the Belgium-based specialty chemicals
firm proposed a lower dividend and missed on half-year revenues. European stock funds had the largest inflow since January 2023 in the latest week according to EPFR Global data. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX -0.3%, CAC +0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.1%. Basic Resources +1.9%,
Technology +0.8%, Autos +0.8%, Banks +0.7%. Insurance -0.6%, Telecom -0.6%, Healthcare -0.5%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher as Chinese stocks in Hong Kong extended a recent rally as the nation’s growing capabilities in artificial intelligence boosted optimism.
Gains accelerated in the afternoon session after Bloomberg News reported a meeting between President Xi and prominent entrepreneurs, including Jack Ma and DeepSeek’s founder, is expected to take place next week, potentially sending a powerful signal of support
for private-sector companies. Traders are also looking forward to further government stimulus from the Two Sessions coming up in March. The Hang Sang China Enterprises Index has gained 14% so far in 2025, making it the best performer in Asia. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index rose 0.7%, with Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest contributors. Japanese shares slipped as the yen edged higher. Hang Seng Tech +5.6%, Hang Seng Index +3.7%, CSI 300 +0.9%, Vietnam +0.4%, Indonesia +0.4%, Kospi +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.2%. Singapore
-0.1%, Topix -0.2%, Sensex -0.3%, Nikkei 225 -0.8%, Philippines -0.8%, Thailand -0.9%, Taiwan -1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries steadied after yesterday’s rally, with yield curve slightly steeper, following dramatic flattening of 2s10s spread Thursday. US long-end yields are ~2bp
cheaper, 10-year yield is flat around 4.53%.  BofA’s Hartnett recommended buying bonds, saying that the 30-year Treasury yield likely reached a multi-year high of about 5% in January. US session includes January retail sales data, and US markets are closed
Monday for Presidents’ Day.

METALS: 

Gold traded near a record high, on track for a seventh week of gains, its longest run since August 2020.  Since Trump retook the White House, gold has done better
than other major asset class. Trump’s decision to propose new tariffs on a country-by-country basis has increased uncertainty, and investors are trying to gauge the potential implications for the US economy and monetary policy. Central banks, including China’s,
have added to holdings, while bullion-backed exchange-traded funds expanded — also supporting gold’s 12% gain so far this year. Silver ETFs saw their fourth straight day of growth. Spot gold +0.05%, Silver +3%, Copper +0.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rose after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the Trump administration’s commitment to reducing Iran’s oil exports. Bessent aims to cut Iranian
oil exports to 100,000 barrels a day and is willing to introduce more sanctions on Russian energy if President Trump asks. Crude is on track to snap a streak of three straight weekly losses, finding support after President Trump didn’t immediately impose reciprocal
tariffs on US trading partners. On Thursday, Trump ordered his administration to study ways to impose tariffs that would match levies on U.S. products by other countries – a process that Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick should be complete by April
1. That proved a relief to investors who had feared the immediate imposition of tariffs.  WTI +0.8%, Brent +0.9%, US Nat Gas +3.3%, RBOB +0.7%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar falls further on hopes that Trump’s tariff approach poses less of an upside risk to inflation. The greenback has weakened against
all its Group-of-10 peers this month, with some of the biggest losses against commodity currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars. The yen rose, while the pound hit its highest level against the dollar this year. The euro fluctuated after data
showed unexpected growth in the euro area economy in the final quarter of 2024. US$ Index -0.3%, GBPUSD +0.15%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY -0.02%, AUDUSD +0.5%, NZDUSD +0.55%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD -0.15%, USDMXN -0.3%, USDNOK -0.25%.

Spot Bitcoin %, Spot Ethereum %.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Airbnb (ABNB) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $175
• Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $153
• Bridgeline Digital (BLIN) Raised to Buy at WestPark Capital; PT $4.62
• Brixmor Property (BRX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $33
• Carrier Global (CARR) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $78
• Floor & Decor (FND) Raised to Outperform at Telsey; PT $115
• Givaudan (GIVN SW) ADRs Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $104.40
• Keyera (KEY CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$48
• MGM Resorts (MGM) Raised to Buy at Argus
• Mid-America (MAA) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $182
• NorthWest Healthcare (NWH-U CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank
• Ribbon (RBBN) Raised to Buy at CFRA
• Roku (ROKU) Raised to Buy at Pivotal; PT $125
• Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $129
• Sun Life Financial (SLF CN) Raised to Buy at Cormark Securities; PT C$82
• Upstart (UPST) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $70
• Warner Music (WMG) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $42
• Welltower (WELL) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush; PT $167
• West Pharma (WST) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $250
• Downgrades
• AMD (AMD) Cut to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $130
• Datadog (DDOG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $140
• Floor & Decor (FND) Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $100
• FMC Corp (FMC) Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT $49
• Galapagos (GLPG NA) ADRs Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $22
• Informatica (INFA) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $19
• Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $19
• Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $19
• Koru Medical Systems (KRMD) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $4.50
• PG&E (PCG) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $16.50
• Restaurant Brands (QSR CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$99.27
• Vermilion Energy (VET CN) Cut to Sector Perform at ATB Capital
• Initiations
• Alibaba (BABA) ADRs Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Align Technology (ALGN) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $255
• Analog Devices (ADI) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $245
• Confluent (CFLT) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Dentsply (XRAY) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $20
• Futu Holdings (FUTU) ADRs Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Griffon (GFF) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $95
• Henry Schein (HSIC) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $80
• Himax Technologies (HIMX) ADRs Rated New Outperform at KGI Securities
• Phathom Pharma (PHAT) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $23
• Williams Cos (WMB) Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $67.26

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke