Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Housing Starts, Building Permits, New York Fed Services Business Activity; 1:00ET
20-Year Bond Auction; 2:00ET FOMC Meeting Minutes; 5:00ET Fed’s Jefferson speaks

Highlights and News:  

• NASA raises risk of the asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 to 3.2%; highest risk assessment an asteroid has ever received
  
• Mexico’s Economy Minister Travels to Washington DC to Discuss Trade Integration With US Officials
• Apple Could Announce a New iPhone Today
• DOGE Reports Nearly $4.7 Trillion Untraceable In Federal Payments
  
• Musk’s X Eyes Fresh Funding Round At $44 Billion
  
• EU looks at tapping €93B in unspent Covid recovery funds for defense – FT

Global stocks eased as President Trump re-iterated threats to impose 25% tariffs on autos, drugs and chips while tensions built around the controversial Ukraine talks.
EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic will meet with US counterparts today to discuss the various tariffs. Mexico’s economy minister also travels to Washington DC to discuss trade integration with US officials. Trump said on Tuesday that he expected some of the biggest
companies in the world to announce new investments in the United States in the next couple of weeks. Some investors are also growing concerned about the outcome of Germany’s national election on Sunday. UK inflation climbed to the highest level in 10 months,
as CPI data showed a 3% gain year over year, above expectations of 2.8%. Japan’s export growth accelerated to 7.2% year on year in January, driven by shipments to the US.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures edge lower as a slew of earnings reports dented sentiment. Arista Networks, Occidental Petroleum, Celanese Corp. and Bumble all fell in premarket trading after results.
Super Micro Computer Inc. rallied, however, after issuing an aggressive long-term revenue outlook. Later today, traders will focus on minutes from the Fed’s most recent interest-rate meeting for clues on the potential impact of increased tariffs on inflation
and monetary policy. Intel (INTC) is down 3.8% after rallying 16% Tuesday after reports it is in talks to sell a majority stake in its programmable chip business, Altera, to buyout firm Silver Lake.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.05%, Russell 2000 -0.5%, DJI -0.1%

In pre-market trading, Super Micro Computer Inc. rallied 7.5% after the beleaguered chipmaker issued an aggressive long-term revenue outlook and pledged to meet a Nasdaq
deadline to file audited financial results.  Analog Devices (ADI) gains 5% after posting adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat estimates. Arista Networks (ANET) dropped 5% on concerns over the computer networking firm’s reliance on revenues
from Meta Platforms. Bumble (BMBL) sinks 17% after the online dating company gave a first-quarter forecast that was weaker than expected. Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) slips 3% after the electronic design automation software company gave a disappointing outlook.
Celanese (CE) drops 13% after the chemical firm said it sees “persistently weak global demand” in end markets. Etsy (ETSY) declines 7% after reporting gross merchandise sales for the fourth quarter that missed. Fiverr (FVRR) rises 4% after forecasting 1Q revenue
that beat the average analyst estimate. Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) falls 3% after confirming it received an revised unsolicited proposal from Pershing Square and will evaluate the offer. Shift4 Payments (FOUR) declines 10% after the payments processing firm
gave a weaker-than-expected outlook. Star Bulk (SBLK) slips 5% as Jefferies notes that 4Q results were weak due to lower dry bulk spot rates. Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) drops 21% after the drugmaker said a mid-stage study of its experimental therapy for
treatment-resistant depression failed to meet its primary endpoint. Toll Brothers (TOL) falls 5% after the luxury homebuilder reported first-quarter revenue and total home sales that fell short of consensus.

European gauges are lower due to concerns about higher-than-expected interest rates and a potential trade spat with the US. The Stoxx 600 Index slipped as much as 0.6%
after hitting a record high on Tuesday, with the latest earnings reports dampening sentiment. Shares in Glencore slipped to the lowest in more than three years after the commodities trading giant posted a fall in profits. Medical equipment maker Royal Philips
NV sank 10% as it predicted anemic Chinese demand. HSBC Holdings also dropped after flagging $1.8 billion in charges for a planned restructuring program. Traders trimmed bets on further rate cuts from the BOE this year in the wake of a surprise jump in UK
inflation. Traders also cut bets on further ECB monetary easing after Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the time to pause or halt rate cuts is getting closer. Stoxx 600 -0.5%, DAX -0.7%, CAC -0.7%, FTSE 100 -0.3%. Basic Resources -2.2%, Construction
-1.8%, Chemicals -1.8%, Travel & Leisure -1.5%. Utilities +0.6%, Aero +0.3%, Technology +0.2%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling 0.2% as Trump’s latest tariff threats stirred concerns over a global trade war. Japanese
stocks slipped, dragged by automakers including Toyota and Honda. NAB weighed on Australia’s benchmark after the bank posted disappointing earnings. Korean equities led gains around the region, as chipmakers rallied amid excitement over potential deals for
Intel businesses. After the Asian close, China issued plans to improve consumption environment and said it is willing to strengthen talks with the US on policies. Kospi +1.7%, Vietnam +0.8%, CSI 300 +0.7%, Hang Seng Tech +0.6%, Philippines +0.4%, Thailand
+0.4%, Singapore +0.2%. Sensex -0.05%, Hang Seng Index -0.1%, Taiwan -0.3%, Topix -0.3%, ASX 200 -0.7%, Indonesia -1.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed in early US trading with long-end yields higher as European rates climb. Most euro-zone 10-year rates are at least 5bp higher on the day after
ECB’s Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the central bank may need to pause or halt its interest-rate reductions. US bond supply remains in focus ahead of $16 billion 20-year new issue auction and potential for another heavy corporate calendar after
this year’s second-busiest day Tuesday. US long-end yields are less than 3bp cheaper on the day with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads wider by ~2bp; 10-year rises ~2bp to about 4.57%.

METALS: 

Gold inched higher; a few dollars shy of the peak set last week. Traders are likely staying cautious ahead of the Fed minutes, due later today, which could provide
clarity regarding future monetary policy direction. Bullion traded little changed near $2,935 an ounce after rising more than 1% in the previous session. Trade war tensions and concerns over global economic growth drove safe-haven flows following Trump’s new
tariff threats. Citi flagged risks of a pullback in copper prices after US tariffs start to affect the physical market. Spot gold +0.05%, Silver +0.05%, Copper +0.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices moved higher, finding support on curtailed supply from Russia as traders also monitor talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. A drone attack by Ukraine
on a pumping station for a pipeline that carries crude from Kazakhstan across southern Russia also boosted prices. Russian crude exports may not rise significantly even if a Ukraine peace deal is reached, as supplies will still be constrained by OPEC+ curbs,
Goldman said. Iranian oil flows to China jumped to 1.74 million barrels a day this month, the highest since October, according to Kpler, as traders work around tighter US curbs. WTI +0.8%, Brent +0.7%, US Nat Gas +4%, RBOB +0.5%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, tariff concerns helped lift the dollar against most G-10 peers. The pound pared gains sparked by a UK inflation report showing hotter-than-forecast
headline CPI, as traders focused on services prices rising less than expected. The yen rose as BOJ’s Takata called for higher rates to be considered. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% – flagging further reductions. 
Kiwi flipped to gains after Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr said further interest-rate cuts would be in increments of 25bps. US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD +0.15%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDMXN +0.3%,
USDSEK +0.25%.

Spot Bitcoin +1.3%, Spot Ethereum +2.2%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Brighthouse Financial (BHF) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
• Capital One (COF) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $235
• Glaukos (GKOS) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $200
• H World Group Ltd (HTHT) ADRs Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Illinois Tool (ITW) Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank
• NetApp Inc (NTAP) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $128
• SoundThinking Inc (SSTI) Raised to Buy at Craig-Hallum; PT $25
• Travelers (TRV) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $286
• Downgrades
• Baidu (BIDU) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Nomura
• ADRs Cut to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $110
• Bio-Techne (TECH) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $68
• Essential Properties (EPRT) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $33.50
• Gibson Energy (GEI CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$24
• Nova (NVMI) Cut to Hold at Bank Leumi; PT $290
• Paramount Resources (POU CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
• Supernus (SUPN) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $36
• Tactile Systems (TCMD) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $18
• Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $37
• Valmont (VMI) Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $380
• Workday (WDAY) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $275
• Initiations
• Arq Inc (ARQ) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $10
• Candel Therapeutics (CADL) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $20
• Coincheck Group (THCP) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $10
• Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Electronic Arts (EA) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $140
• Enterprise Group (E CN) Rated New Hold at Canaccord; PT C$2.40
• GE Vernova (GEV) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $423
• North West Co (NWC CN) Rated New Outperform at CIBC; PT C$59
• Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $103
• Take-Two (TTWO) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $250
• Timken (TKR) Rated New Underweight at Oxcap; PT $71
• UroGen Pharma (URGN) Reinstated Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $31

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke