Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 8:30ET GDP, Personal Consumption, Core PCE Price Index, Durable
Goods Orders, Jobless Claims; 9:15ET Fed’s Schmid speaks; 10:00ET Fed’s Barr speaks, Pending Home Sales; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed Mfg. Activity; 11:45ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 1:15ET Fed’s Hammack speaks; 2:00ET Trump holds press conference with UK PM Keir Starmer;
3:15ET Fed’s Harker speaks

Highlights and News:  

• US 4Q CORE PCE RISES ANNUALIZED 2.7% Q/Q: EST. +2.5%
  
• Russian and US diplomats meet in Turkey today
• Putin says first contacts with US administration inspire hope; says Russia and US ready to set up cooperation
  
• Actor Gene Hackman (95) and wife found dead alongside dog at home
• Hamas said it is ready for the second phase of ceasefire talks in Gaza
• China Takes Tougher Tone on Taiwan, Announces Military Drills
  

Global stocks are mixed to steady with the MSCI World Index little changed following a threat from Trump to impose 25% “reciprocal” tariffs on imports from the EU,
but stocks globally held broadly steady after Nvidia’s results threw up no big surprises. Trump created some confusion over the impending duties on key trading partners Canada and Mexico on Wednesday by signaling they would take effect on April 2, effectively
pushing the timeline back by another month. However, a White House official later said the previous March 4 deadline for the levies remained in effect “as of this moment”, stirring further uncertainty about US trade policy. Investors will remain focused on
Trump’s Russian-Ukrainian peace talks. Trump said Zelenskiy would visit Washington on Friday to sign an agreement on rare earth minerals, while the Ukrainian leader said the success of the deal would hinge on those talks and continued US aid. Hamas said it
was ready to begin talks on the second phase of a ceasefire in Gaza after several hundred Palestinians were released from Israeli jails overnight in return for the bodies of four Israeli hostages. There are 54 hostages still held in Gaza, with fewer than half
believed to still be alive.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures ticked higher as investors digested Nvidia’s latest results. Nvidia delivered good-but-not-great quarterly numbers on Wednesday, drawing a muted response from investors
accustomed to blowout results. The company also warned that gross profit margins would be tighter than anticipated as it rushes to roll out a new chip design called Blackwell. Salesforce fell premarket on a weaker-than-expected revenue outlook. Snowflake jumped
after its product revenue forecast beat. Several Fed officials are due to speak later in the day for more insights on monetary-policy easing this year. Markets will next look to the PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, due on Friday.

Futures ahead of the bell/data: E-Mini S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.8%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, DJI +0.2%

In pre-market trading, Nvidia (NVDA) ticks 2.4% higher after the chipmaker at the center of an AI spending boom delivered good-but-not-great quarterly numbers. Ambarella
(AMBA) climbs 12% after the semiconductor device company gave an outlook that is seen as strong. EBay (EBAY) falls 7% after projecting sales for the current quarter that missed analysts’ estimates. Ferrari (RACE) drops 3% after the Agnelli family sold a $3.14
billion stake in Ferrari NV to fund what it calls a “sizeable new acquisition” and stock buyback. issued forecasts for the current quarter that fell short of Wall Street expectations. Mara Holdings (MARA) rises 13% after the crypto mining firm reported total
revenue for the fourth quarter that beat estimates. Nutanix (NTNX) jumps 15% after the infrastructure software company boosted its full-year revenue guidance and reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat estimates. Papa John’s (PZZA) gains
6% after fourth quarter profit and revenue beat estimates. Paramount Global (PARA) slips 2% after the parent of CBS and MTV reported fourth-quarter sales and profit that fell short of analysts’ expectations. Pure Storage (PSTG) declines 8% after the cloud
storage provider’s provided disappointing guidance. Root (ROOT) rises 18% after the insurance company’s fourth quarter net premiums written beat estimates. Snowflake (SNOW) jumps 12% after the cloud-computing company gave an outlook for product revenue that
is above the analyst consensus. Salesforce (CRM) shares fall 3% after the software company gave an outlook that is weaker than expected. Teleflex (TFX) slips 5% after announcing plans to separate into two publicly traded companies. Warby Parker (WRBY) rises
6% after the eyeglass retailer provided a rosy sales outlook.

European gauges are mostly weaker but well off their early lows. The Stoxx 600 is near highs for the session but remains in negative territory, led lower by automakers
and media. Eurozone consumer confidence rose this month, as economic confidence also increased. Spanish inflation remained elevated at 2.9% in February. Automakers sank as President Trump threatened 25% tariffs. Among single stocks, Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc
jumped 20% after raising its profit guidance and saying it plans to buy back £1 billion of stock, while advertising giant WPP Plc dropped 15% after it forecast sales that would remain flat or shrink this year.  Stoxx 600 -0.3%, DAX -0.6%, CAC -0.3%, FTSE 100
+0.3%. Autos -3.2%, Media -2%, Retail -1.5%. Aero & Defense +3.2%, Energy +0.5%, Travel & Leisure +0.4%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 0.3%, weighed by tech firms. Equities in Hong Kong pulled back after a strong rally, while mainland
China gauges ended slightly higher. Investor sentiment remained cautious amid mixed messages from Donald Trump and uncertainty over US tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump expressed interest in having China invest in the US just days after he ordered restrictions
to Chinese spending in some sectors.  Investors will be looking to a key meeting of the country’s top officials next week for further policy support. Meanwhile, India is weighing tariff cuts on a wide range of imports, including cars and chemicals, in a bid
to evade Trump’s threatened reciprocal levies. Indonesia -1.8%, Taiwan -1.5%, Thailand -1.25%, Kospi -0.7%, Philippines -0.3%, Hang Seng Index -0.3%, Sensex was flat. CSI 300 +0.2%, Nikkei 225 +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.3%, Singapore +0.3%, Vietnam +0.4%, Topix +0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries slipped as traders awaited economic data from the US for further signs that growth is flagging. US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.29%, holding above its
200dma ahead of the revised fourth-quarter gross domestic product print. Mounting worries and confusion over the impact of President Trump’s threatened trade tariffs have spurred bets the Federal Reserve will need to shift its focus away from inflation to
tackling economic weakness with lower interest rates. US session includes 4Q GDP revision, weekly jobless claims data and six scheduled Fed speakers.

METALS: 

Gold is lower, pressured by a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields, while investors awaited a key inflation report due tomorrow to assess the Federal Reserve’s
policy path. Gold is under pressure as investors take profits after bullion set a fresh record on Monday. Weakening physical demand signs are also adding pressure. The US will probably impose a 25% tariff on copper imports, matching the planned duties on steel
and aluminum, Citi said. Spot gold -0.9%, Silver is flat, Copper +1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices are higher, with supply worries resurfacing after President Trump announced a reversal of a license given to Chevron to operate in Venezuela. Chevron exports
about 240,000 barrels per day of crude from its Venezuela operations, over a quarter of the country’s entire oil output. Potential buying from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve also gave some support after Trump said last week that his administration would
quickly fill up the SPR. Traders will be focused on US/Russian/Ukrainian peace talks as Russian and US teams meet in Turkey today. WTI +1.2%, Brent +1.2%, US Nat Gas -1.5%, RBOB +0.5%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar inched higher against most peers, as President Trump’s vague pledges to impose tariffs on Europe and further delays to levies planned
for Canada and Mexico stoked uncertainty. Canadian officials are undertaking a “full court press” in Washington this week to avert 25% tariffs on most of the nation’s goods, a minister said. Havens such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc underperform. Japan’s
Vice Finance Minister indicated he had no issue with growing market expectations over Bank of Japan interest-rate hikes. Spanish headline inflation matched expectations and prompted little reaction in European Central Bank interest-rate cut bets. US$ Index
+0.15%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY +0.35%, AUDUSD -0.15%, NZDUSD -0.2%, USDCHF +0.4%, USDCAD +0.15%, USDMXN -0.2%. 

Spot Bitcoin +2.1%, Spot Ethereum +0.6%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Check Point Software (CHKP) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $255
• Evertec (EVTC) Raised to Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $30
• Freeport (FCX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $48
• Kilroy (KRC) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $44
• Nutanix (NTNX) Raised to Outperform at Northland; PT $97
• Nvidia (NVDA) Raised to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $131
• Pebblebrook (PEB) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $14
• Spok Holdings (SPOK) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $20
• Steel Dynamics (STLD) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $185
• Tesla (TSLA) Raised to Buy at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $345.76
• Triumph Financial Inc (TFIN) Raised to Market Perform at KBW; PT $74
• Westlake Corp (WLK) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $110
• Downgrades
• Arhaus (ARHS) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $12
• AvidXchange (AVDX) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Bentley Systems (BSY) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Bridge Investment Group (BRDG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
• Constellation Brands (STZ) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Endeavour Mining (EDV CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$37
• George Weston (WN CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$241
• Geron (GERN) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $2
• Global Blue Group Holding (GB) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Goldman Sachs (GS) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $660
• Ibotta (IBTA) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Lava Therapeutics (LVTX) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $1.50
• Nvidia (NVDA) Cut to Hold at Summit Insights
• Olin (OLN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $28
• Sempra (SRE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $72
• Standard BioTools Inc (LAB) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Taboola (TBLA) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $4
• Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Initiations
• Azenta Inc (AZTA) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $50
• Certara (CERT) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $16
• Compass Pathways (CMPS) ADRs Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $11
• Dentalcorp (DNTL CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT C$15
• Disc Medicine Inc (IRON) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• HA Sustainable Infrastructure (HASI) US Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $33
• Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. II (IPXXU) Rated New Buy at Benchmark
• Plumas (PLBC) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $60
• Sandisk (SNDK) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke