Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Personal Income, Personal Spending, *PCE (2.5% exp), Advance Goods Trade Balance,
Retail Inventories, Wholesale Inventories; 9:45ET MNI Chicago PMI; 10:15ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed Services Activity

Highlights and News:  

• US JAN. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +2.6%
• Trump is set to meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at the White House Today
• China warned it would hit back at Trump’s trade threats
• XI SAYS TO MAKE DOMESTIC DEMAND MAIN DRIVER OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
• Citigroup mistakenly credits customer account $81 trillion in “near miss” – FT
• MSCI Rebalance today

Global stock markets declined, reaching their lowest point in nearly four weeks, as fears of increased US tariffs unsettled investors and reignited worries about
a worsening worldwide trade conflict. China warned it would hit back at Donald Trump’s trade threats after the US president unveiled additional tariffs on Chinese imports, raising the risk of tensions spiraling between the world’s largest economies. China
said it will “counter with all necessary measures to defend its legitimate rights and interests.” The levies are set to take effect on Tuesday, one day before President Xi Jinping heads into the party’s biggest political meeting of the year. Euro zone inflation
prospects improved while growth remained anemic, fresh data showed, solidifying the case for further ECB rate cuts. UK PM Keir Starmer hosts Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and other European leaders on Sunday to discuss security guarantees they can offer Kyiv
in the event of a ceasefire with Russia.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are mixed as investors await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, that could influence expectations regarding the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory.
PCE index probably rose 2.6% in the year through January, after an increase of 2.8% in December. Beijing said in its response to the tariffs that it hoped to resolve differences through dialogue, illustrating its desire to reach a deal. China typically hits
back at tariffs only after they come into effect. The S&P 500 is holding small gains after the index erased the last of its 2025 gains on Thursday.

Futures ahead of the data: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq -0.05%, Russell 2000 -0.3%, DJI +0.4%

In pre-market trading, Acadia Health shares sink 19% after the psychiatric hospital chain gave revenue and adjusted Ebitda forecast for the year that fell short of
Wall Street’s expectations. Bath & Body Works is up 1.5% after Citi upgraded the retailer of personal care products to buy from neutral. Bloom Energy rises 8.0% after the electrical power equipment company reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat.
Cava Group shares gain ~2% after Piper Sandler raised the Mediterranean chain to overweight from neutral. DLocal shares slump as much as 23% after the payment platform operator’s earnings and guidance undershot expectations. Iovance Biotherapeutics shares
tumble 19% as analysts cut their price targets on the drugmaker. Monster Beverage gains 2% after the energy-drink maker’s fourth-quarter gross margin topped the average analyst estimate. PubMatic shares are down 14% after the advertising technology company
gave a first-quarter outlook that missed expectations. Rocket Lab drops as much as 13% after the space company delayed the launch of its Neutron rocket to the second half of the year and issued a revenue forecast for the first quarter which fell short of estimates.
Walgreens Boots Alliance drops 3.7% as Deutsche Bank downgrades to sell from hold.

The extension target area has been tough resistance in SPX.

 NDX sees the fastest 7% decline from an all-time high (6 trading days) since September 2020. The 200dma is pivotal support.

European gauges are mostly lower but well off their early lows. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.9% before paring losses. Ahead of the ECB meeting next week, preliminary
data today showed French inflation dropped below 1% for the first time in four years in February, while figures from some key German states also showed a slowdown. Forecast-beating corporate earnings have been lifting European investor sentiment, offsetting
for now the mounting threat of a trade war with the US. Among individual names, IAG SA rose over 5% as it reported quarterly profit that beat analysts’ estimates and set out plans to buy back €1 billion in stock. Stoxx 600 -0.3%, DAX -0.5%, CAC -0.4%, FTSE
100 +0.25%. Technology -1.4%, Energy -1%, Basic Resources -0.8%. Aero & Defense +0.7%, Utilities +0.5%.

Shares in Asia were broadly lower as Trump’s latest tariff threats and underwhelming Nvidia results damped investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 2.4%,
with Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan among the biggest drags. Shares in Hong Kong led the declines, after Trump said he would impose an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports. China’s elite Politburo reiterated a pledge to expand domestic demand as well as to
stabilize the housing and stock markets — all topics likely on the agenda at next week’s National People’s Congress. Equities in Japan tumbled, buckling under the weight of a stronger safe-haven yen. Tech heavy South Korea was the worst performer in Asia,
following a poor market reception of Nvidia’s earnings. Investor focus next week will turn to the China’s National People’s Congress. Hang Seng Tech -5.3%, Kospi -3.4%, Indonesia -3.3%, Hang Seng Index -3.3%, Nikkei 225 -2.9%, Philippines -2.1%, Topix -2%,
Sensex -1.9%, ASX 200 -1.2%, Thailand -1%, Singapore -0.6%, Vietnam -0.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are little changed as US session gets under way after erasing gains that sent yields to fresh YTD lows. Core European rates outperform after French inflation
fell to its lowest level in four years and prices in Italy unexpectedly held steady — bolstered expectations for ECB rate cuts. Focal point of US day is January personal income and spending data that include PCE price indexes, with core gauge expected to show
first deceleration since September. Bank of Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she doesn’t expect a rate hike if inflation pressures remain over the Fed’s 2% target and that future price pressure expectations are “still anchored.” US 10-year yield at
4.26% after declining as much as 4bp to 4.22%.

METALS: 

Gold slipped and is headed for its initial weekly decline on the year as investors cashed in gains from a record-breaking rally, driven by growing unease about President
Trump’s tariff plans, which have bolstered the US dollar. Gold-backed ETFs in China are swelling this month as investors seek to diversify risks, with WGC data showing holdings approaching the monthly record set in October. Spot gold -0.7%, Silver -0.5%, Copper
-1.0%.

ENERGY:   

Oil is lower and on track for a monthly loss, with crude seeing pressure this month on worries about the global economic outlook and Iraq’s decision to resume oil
exports from the Kurdistan region.  Uncertainty surrounding OPEC’s production resumption plans in April and ongoing peace talks to end the war in Ukraine also weighed on investor sentiment. Oil consumption in China contracted last year, raising the prospect
that the world’s largest importer has reached peak demand. Crude usage fell 1.2% in 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. WTI -1.3%, Brent -1.2%, US Nat Gas -1.1%, RBOB -0.8%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, tariff fears sent risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar sliding. The dollar steadied and is headed for its first weekly advance
this month as tariff announcements weighed on risk sentiment while month-end flows also offered support. The yen is among the weakest of G-10 currencies. Tokyo inflation slowed more than expected, a result that isn’t likely to deter the central bank from considering
more hikes to its benchmark interest rate. Sterling eased slightly but is still heading for its first monthly rise since September. The UK faces less tariff risk compared to the EU, thanks to its trade surplus with the US and most exports are in the form of
services. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY +0.55%, AUDUSD -0.3%, NZDUSD -0.6%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD ~flat, USDMXN -0.4%.    

Spot Bitcoin -4.2%, Spot Ethereum -6%. Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 for the first time in more than three months.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Alibaba (BABA) ADRs Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $164
• Bath & Body Works (BBWI) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $48
• Cava Group (CAVA) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $115
• Corebridge Financial (CRBG) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Energy Fuels (EFR CN) Raised to Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT C$8.30
• Li Auto (LI) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $40
• Nexstar Media (NXST) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $200
• Nvidia (NVDA) Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT $156
• OPENLANE Inc (KAR) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $26
• PayPal (PYPL) Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT $92
• Rush Street (RSI) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna; PT $14
• Veren (VRN CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Peters & Co; PT C$11
• Vital Farms (VITL) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $44
• Voya Financial (VOYA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Welltower (WELL) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $168
• Downgrades
• Alamo Group (ALG) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $177
• Array (ARRY) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Bentley Systems (BSY) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $42
• Bloom Energy (BE) Cut to Accumulate at Mirae Asset Securities
• Dine Brands (DIN) Cut to Neutral at Wedbush
• Dlocal (DLO) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $10
• DocGo (DCGO) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $2.85
• Eventbrite (EB) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $3.50
• ICF International (ICFI) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $100
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $13
• LeMaitre Vascular (LMAT) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Playtika (PLTK) Cut to Neutral at Baird
• Skyward Specialty (SKWD) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Teleflex (TFX) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $140
• Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $155
• Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Trip.com (TCOM) ADRs Cut to Hold at First Shanghai; PT $65
• Vertex Inc (VERX) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $31
• Walgreens Boots (WBA) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT $9
• Initiations
• Altimmune (ALT) Rated New Market Perform at William Blair
• Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $48
• BioAge Labs (BIOA) Rated New Market Perform at William Blair
• BlackSky Technology (BKSY) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $20
• Bridgebio (BBIO) Resumed Outperform at Raymond James; PT $57
• Corbus Pharmaceuticals (CRBP) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• CoStar (CSGP) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $89
• Infinity Natural Resources (INR) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $26
• Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $22
• Iridium Communications (IRDM) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $44
• Novavax (NVAX) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $19
• Planet Labs (PL) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $8
• Skye Bioscience (SKYE) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) US Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $42
• Terns Pharma (TERN) Rated New Market Perform at William Blair

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke