Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET CPI*; 9:45ET Canada Rate Decision; 1:00ET 10-Year Note Auction; 2:00ET Federal Budget
Balance; G-7 Foreign Ministers meet in Quebec through Friday

Highlights and News:  

• Trump’s increased tariffs on all US steel and aluminum imports take effect today
• EU to impose counter tariffs on $28 billion of US goods; remained open to negotiations
• CANADA TO ANNOUNCE $29.8B IN RETALIATORY TARIFFS TODAY: REUTERS
• USAID employees ordered to shred records, court filing says
• KREMLIN SAYS CONTACTS WITH US ARE PLANNED: IFX
• Walmart Faces Heat From Beijing After Demand for Price Cuts
• Houthi militant group in Yemen said it would resume attacks on Israeli ships

World stocks rose after Ukraine’s decision to accept a US proposal for a 30-day truce with Russia helped underpin broader risk sentiment, offsetting trade concerns
as US tariffs on steel and aluminum came into force. Trump’s action to bulk up protections for American steel and aluminum producers restores global tariffs of 25% on all imports of the metals and extends the duties to hundreds of downstream products. The
European Union announced countermeasures in response — worth about $28 billion —that will start on April 1. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said the move could have a major impact on U.S.-Japan economic ties. Canada is mulling reciprocal actions and
Britain’s trade minister said that “all options were on the table.” The countries most affected by the tariffs are Canada, Brazil, Mexico and South Korea, which all have enjoyed some level of exemptions. Germany’s Kiel Institute estimated a hit to EU output
of only 0.02%, because “only a small fraction” of the targeted products are exported to the US. The UK said it would focus on “rapidly negotiating a wider economic agreement.” The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates for a seventh straight meeting
today, to 2.75%.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are higher, steadying after the previous session’s volatility and looked ahead to a key inflation report. The president acted on tariffs with the backing of some domestic
industry executives, who said the protectionist measures could raise profits for US producers and bring steel and aluminum jobs back from overseas. Focus this morning will be on CPI data, where any higher-than-expected reading might fuel concerns of stagflation.
The consumer price index is seen advancing 0.3% in February after a 0.5% gain at the start of the year. House Republicans passed legislation to keep the US government open past a Saturday shutdown deadline. The bill will probably need the support of at least
eight Democrats in the Senate to become law. Intel jumped in premarket trading after a report said TSMC has pitched chip designers Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom about taking a stake in a joint venture to operate the US chip company’s factories.

Futures ahead of the bell/data: E-Mini S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +0.9%, Russell 2000 +0.5%, DJI +0.5%

In pre-market trading, Intel (INTC) rises 6% after Reuters reported that TSMC has pitched Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom about taking stakes in a joint
venture that would operate the chipmaker’s factories. EW Scripps (SSP) rises 21% after the TV broadcasting company announced a deal to refinance its debt. Groupon (GRPN) jumps 20% after the online coupon company gave a revenue forecast for 2025 that beat estimates.
IRobot (IRBT) falls 21% after the robot vacuum company reported 4Q revenue that missed. LoanDepot (LDI) slips 12% after the lender reported revenue for the fourth quarter that missed analyst estimates. Myriad Genetics (MYGN) climbs 4% after the genetic testing
company is upgraded to overweight at Piper Sandler. Stitch Fix (SFIX) rallies 18% after the personal styling platform boosted its full year revenue forecast. Rocket Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RCKT) rises 3% after BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage at outperform
and set a price target more than six times above where the shares last closed.

European gauges rise after Ukraine accepted the US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. The Stoxx 600 is on course to snap a four-day losing streak, led by
banks, construction, and industrial shares, while the retail sector underperforms.  Puma tumbled 23% to an eight-year low after the German sportswear group gave a disappointing outlook for first-quarter sales. Zara owner Inditex SA slumped as much as 8.9%
after reporting slowing sales. Zealand Pharma jumped as much as 34% after Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche, acquired rights to an obesity therapy by the Danish biotech firm. Shares of Roche were up ~4%. Stoxx 600 +1.1%, DAX +1.7%, CAC +1.4%, FTSE 100 +0.6%.
Aero & Defense +2.7, Banks +2.2%, Industrials +1.8%, Insurance +1.8%. Retail -2.8%.  

Shares in Asia were mixed after a three-day selloff as investors sought to assess the economic impact of Trump’s latest tariff moves. Major Asian producers including
South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia held off on retaliating. The Trump administration hit out at Japan’s elevated rice tariffs, signaling it may be targeted in the coming weeks. China didn’t immediately respond, but it did summon Walmart, following reports
the US retailer was urging Chinese suppliers to help absorb higher costs. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed. Key gauges in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan advanced, while Australia’s mining-heavy stock benchmark fell as the nation failed to secure
an exemption from US steel and aluminum tariffs.  Chinese consumption stocks rose as the nation’s annual political gathering wrapped up with support for domestic demand. Indonesia +1.8%, Kospi +1.5%, Taiwan +0.9%, Topix +0.9%, Singapore +0.2%, Vietnam +0.1%,
Nikkei 225 +0.1%. Sensex -0.1%, Philippines -0.2%, CSI 300 -0.4%, Hang Seng Index -0.8%, ASX 200 -1.3%, Thailand -2.3%. 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly lower in early US session after small Asia-session gains were erased during the London morning.  Downside pressure stems from bund selloff
following European Union’s countermeasures against US metals tariffs. Focal points of US session focus include February CPI data and 10-year note reopening. US 10-year yield is up 2bps at 4.30%. Curve is flatter with 2s10s curve -1bp; 5s30s -2bps. This week’s
Treasury auction cycle continues with $39 billion 10-year and concludes Thursday with $22b 30-year reopening. Demand was soft for Tuesday’s 3-year new-issue auction, which tailed by 0.6bp.

METALS: 

Gold steadied, underpinned by haven demand after Wall Street was whipsawed by President Trump’s on-off tariff plans and his latest comments downplaying fears of a
recession. Investors weighed Trump’s latest move to dial back his trade-war threat against Canada just hours after saying he would double duties on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%. Traders will assess a US inflation reading today that may show consumer
prices rose in February that could complicate the Fed’s rate-cut agenda. Markets are also monitoring a potential easing in geopolitical risks that could ease haven demand. Ukraine accepted a US proposal for a 30-day truce with Russia as part of a deal with
the Trump administration to lift its freeze on military aid and intelligence for Kyiv. Spot gold ~flat, Silver +0.3%, Copper +2.2%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices edged higher but mounting fears of a US economic slowdown and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth capped gains. On the supply side, US crude
oil production is poised to set a larger record this year than prior estimates, at an average 13.61 million barrels per day, the US Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday. Crude oil stockpiles rose by 4.2 million barrels in the week ended March
7, API reported. Investors now await government data later in the day. WTI +1.2%, Brent +1.1%, US Nat Gas -3.5%, RBOB +1.1%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar steadied ahead of US inflation data, with expectations of still elevated consumer prices tempering bets on rate cuts. Trump’s backtracking
of 50% tariffs on Canada also slightly eased worries over US growth. The euro eased as the European Commission launched “swift and proportionate countermeasures” on US imports into the EU. The yen underperforms its G-10 peers. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo
Ueda indicated he’s not too concerned about the country’s government bond yields climbing to the highest level since 2008, signaling he’s not planning any imminent action to counter the moves. The loonie inched higher ahead of the BOC rate decision. US$ Index
+0.1%, GBPUSD +0.05%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY +0.6%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF -0.05%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK +0.7%.

Bitcoin +0.1%, Ethereum -1.4%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Applied Materials (AMAT) Raised to Buy at Edward Jones
• Core Laboratories (CLB) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $16
• Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA) Raised to Accumulate at Johnson Rice; PT $37
• Crocs (CROX) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $110
• Eaton Corp (ETN) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $340
• HubSpot (HUBS) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $815
• ICU Medical (ICUI) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James
• Medical Properties (MPW) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $9
• Myriad Genetics (MYGN) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $12.50
• Rayonier (RYN) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $31
• Downgrades
• Albemarle (ALB) Cut to Sell at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $51.80
• Arvinas (ARVN) Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $12
• HP Enterprise (HPE) Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $16
• Labrador Iron Ore (LIF CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$31
• Magic Software Enterprises (MGIC) US Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• PepsiCo (PEP) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $170
• Stellantis (STLA) Cut to Sell at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $11.47
• Sunrun (RUN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $8
• Verizon (VZ) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Zynex (ZYXI) Cut to Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann
• Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $5.50
• Initiations
• ANI Pharma (ANIP) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $85
• Aris Water Solutions Inc (ARIS) Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl
• Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Avidity Biosciences (RNA) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $72
• Cameco (CCO CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$90
• Cidara (CDTX) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $46
• Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $50
• Exodus Movement (EXOD) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $40
• Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $38
• Fiverr (FVRR) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $31
• HealWELL AI (AIDX CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$3
• Moody’s (MCO) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $504
• NexGen Energy (NXE CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$16
• Nuvation Bio (NUVB) Rated New Buy at Jones; PT $10
• Puma (PUM GR) ADRs Rated New Buy at Baader Helvea
• Radiopharm (RAD AU) ADRs Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $15
• Rocket Pharma (RCKT) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $50
• S&P Global (SPGI) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $599
• Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Reinstated Neutral at Macquarie; PT $40
• Talen Energy (TLN) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $243
• Titan America (TTAM) Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $19
• Upwork (UPWK) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $15
• Uranium Energy (UEC) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT $10.50

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke