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No Life of Riley in These Markets

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Our View
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There’s an old saying, “living the life of Riley.” While the saying is not about me, it’s surely not about the markets right now, either.
After a better-than-expected CPI number, the ES rallied up to 5676 and then what happened? It crapped out down to 5550! What did it do after that low? The ES rallied, climbing back up to 5630.50.
This is the market we’re living in—100 to 150-point swings in the ES almost every day. After the late-day rally up to the 5635 level, the MIM report came out showing $2.5 billion to sell, and the ES dropped again, sinking down to 5595. These markets are in constant motion.
Even after some relief from the CPI report, the ES still dropped almost 100 points. I did think we were going to get a range expansion, but we stayed within the 5540-5640 range that I mentioned in yesterday’s OP.
Nvidia climbed 6.4%, trimming its year-to-date loss to 13.8%. Super Micro Computer gained 4%, GE Vernova added 5.1%, and Tesla surged 7.6%.
Is it over yet? I don’t think so but the ES has made several attempts to break 5500, and at some point, it will break out. For now, though, it remains stuck in a big, choppy range that is being held hostage by all the Trump tariff headlines.
Our Lean
We have the PPI number this morning. It’s usually not a market mover, but occasionally it is. If you’re a day trader and like selling the rips and buying the dips, you’re having a great time. If you’re a bull and keep thinking the ES is “going to pop 5800,” it’s been a painful trade.
The PitBull has a rule about the ES making a low on the Thursday before the March Quad Witching. This trade has worked often, but there are five trading days left after tomorrow to get to the expiration and currently, forecasting the ES that far out is a tough go. That said, the ES and NQ are extremely oversold.
Our lean: Continue selling the big rips. It’s all up to the NQ, and if you’re trading the range, buying the dip under 5550 has been working nicely. I just don’t know how long that can last.
MiM and Daily Recap


The S&P 500 futures opened the Globex session near 5580.00 and at 8:30 AM printed a 52-point candle on the cooler-than-expected CPI number. This high print became the high for the whole day. A modest bounce then took the market to 5645.00 around 09:30 on the open, but sellers quickly reasserted control. The most pronounced move of the morning developed later, driving the contract down to 5550.25 by 11:06—its lowest print of the regular session.
From that midmorning low, the ES rebounded sharply, gaining 76 points to reach 5626.50 just before 13:00. A brief pullback to 5600.00 at 13:03 was followed by another upswing, peaking at 5631.50 around 13:30. Yet volatility remained high. Sellers knocked prices down to 5591.75 by 14:00, but the market once again bounced back, marking a minor high of 5633.00 at 14:48.
In the final stretch of regular trading, a more defensive posture emerged as the market slipped into the close at 5602.75 and continued until 16:42 when the ES dropped to 5595.00.
Overall, the regular session settled at 5602.75, which represented a 0.48% gain (27 points) from the prior day’s 5635.50 settlement (though it was down 0.58% from the day’s open of 5645.00). After the brief “cleanup” period, the official full‑session close printed 5597.25, a net 27‑point gain—or 0.48%—above the previous day’s final price of 5570/5580 (per the combined session reference). Volume finished solid, with over 1.45 million contracts changing hands during regular hours and total participation reaching nearly 1.85 million when including Globex and cleanup sessions.
Overall, the market displayed choppy two‑way action, alternating between sharp dips and respectable recoveries. Early strength gave way to intraday selling, although buyers stepped in aggressively near the 5550.25 mark. Despite multiple afternoon pullbacks, the ES managed to close modestly higher on a session‑to‑session basis, suggesting a tentative bullish undercurrent. That said, the market’s inability to hold mid‑session gains near 5633.00 hinted that participants remained cautious.
Looking to the Market on Close (MOC) imbalance data, total dollar flow was heavily skewed to the sell side at −2.3 billion dollars (about 77% in sell imbalances). However, the symbol percentage metric registered −55.9 %, which, while bearish, did not exceed the ±66 % threshold that typically indicates a strong directional push. As a result, the late‑day selling pressure was noticeable but not extreme enough to drive a fresh low into the close.
In summary, Wednesday’s ES session saw significant two‑way swings, closing in positive territory versus the prior settle but below its own day’s opening price. Traders will be closely watching whether the market can break out decisively above 5645.00 in upcoming sessions or if renewed selling pressure pushes the contract back down toward 5550.25 support.


Technical Edge
Fair Values forMarch 13, 2025
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S&P: 4.42
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NQ: 16.89
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Dow: 40.14
Daily Breadth Data 📊
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NYSE Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 65% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 61% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 57% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 11 / 112
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 36 / 219
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NYSE TRIN: 1.12
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.76
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
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NYSE Breadth: 72% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 76% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 75% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 33 / 98
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 74 / 166
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NYSE TRIN: 0.64
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.64
Guest Posts:
Dan @ GTC Traders
Hedge if We Rally
We trade in a manner that has us trading a number of markets, sectors that are non-correlated to one another for purposes of diversification, risk management, and maximizing risk-adjusted returns while minimizing exposure to any single market or sector downturn.
And yet at the same time, we understand that regardless of market sector, eventually all eyes turn to stocks … or equities. And yes, the current news is the ongoing minor stock market correction.
Yes, that is how we see this downturn.
Minor.
Before the current stock market bubble began in November 2023? It was statistically normal to receive a 10% correction in stocks (which is where we are now) on average … once per year.
Yes, you heard me right. Ten percent corrections were at one time, a regular annual occurrence. It seems many in social media streams were not aware of this.
So if we are going to discuss the stock market at the current time, or the S&P 500?
We think the levels are pretty obvious at this point. We like to keep it simple. We have drawn down 10%. This level alone will bring in buyers.

If we begin to rally above that 5625 level?
It could be a headfake.
What we like to do in this case is either put on a slightly bullish relationship trade, or perhaps, a heavily hedged bullish SPY trade. In equities, this is easy enough. One could almost buy as much SH (An inverse ETF, or short the S&P 500) as one buys of SPY. Something like a 90% hedge (for every 100 shares of SPY bought, 90% of the buying power placed into SH as well). Or one could use a married option position. The point is, is that while the gains are muted, there are still gains. If the trade is a headfake then the losses will be mitigated.
If the market continues to rally, one could simply peel off the hedge at specific intervals as it becomes more clear the a rally is truly underway.
If we don’t break above 5625 with conviction and volume? No trade.
Just a little trick we like to use at key levels, to keep our risk mitigated. Since none of us truly know the future.
Until next time, stay safe, and trade well.
Trading Room News:
Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, March 12, 2025
Strong Start with CPI Release and Bullish Momentum:
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The session kicked off with a positive reaction to the CPI report, which came in lower than expected (2.8% vs. 2.9% forecast).
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This triggered an immediate rally, fulfilling the initial upside target (5640-5650) within minutes.
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Both ES and NQ hit their 3-day cycle rally targets right off the CPI print, setting a bullish tone for the morning.
Strategic Trading Throughout the Morning:
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CL (Crude Oil) Open Range Long Target 2 was filled, confirming strength in commodities.
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NQ and ES Open Range setups played out well, with David initially leaning long but staying flexible as the market evolved.
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The 5590 LIS (Line in Sand) level became a key pivot, with bulls attempting to hold value above it.
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A shift occurred as the market tested and broke below 5590, triggering a short lean, with targets at 5567 and 5565 (VAR fulfillment). These levels were tagged with laser precision.
Midday Action – Profit Targets Hit & Reversals:
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The VAR short targets (5567-5565) were reached, confirming the bearish follow-through.
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A bounce attempt occurred from these key levels, with price rallying back to VWAP.
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David noted the importance of bulls reclaiming 5625-5630 to regain control.
Afternoon Session & Closing Action:
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The anticipated “2 PM Shake ‘n Bake” played out, with price reacting as expected.
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Buyers found support again at 5590, keeping price within a controlled range.
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As the closing MOC (Market on Close) imbalance approached, the market saw a $2.5B sell imbalance, which later flipped, leading to a final late-day ripper.
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The session closed near mid VWAP in a balanced state, with both buyers and sellers having their say.
Key Takeaways & Lessons Learned:
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CPI-driven volatility provided excellent opportunities for both long and short trades.
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Pre-defined target zones were fulfilled with precision, reinforcing the importance of structured trading plans.
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5590 was a key pivot level—once lost, it triggered a sharp downside move, and when reclaimed, it provided support.
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Flexibility was crucial, as the market shifted from early strength to a midday pullback and a late-session rip.
Overall Performance:
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Strong execution on both the long and short sides.
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VAR target fulfillment showed the power of technical levels.
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MOC imbalance flip provided a great late-day opportunity.
DTG Room Preview – Thursday, March 13, 2025
Market Overview:
Tech stocks surged after a cooler-than-expected CPI report, with Tesla (TSLA +7%) and Nvidia (NVDA +6%) leading the charge. The Nasdaq rose 1.2%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.5% and the Dow dipped 0.2%.
Trade tensions escalated as Canada imposed $21B in tariffs on U.S. goods in response to Trump’s 25% steel and aluminum tariffs. Trump vowed reciprocal action against both Canada and the EU.
Intel (INTC +11% after hours) soared after announcing former Cadence Design CEO Lip-Bu Tan as its new CEO. Meanwhile, a consortium of chipmakers—TSMC, Nvidia, and Broadcom—is reportedly in talks to acquire Intel’s chip manufacturing business.
Trump is also expected to nominate Fed Governor Michelle Bowman as the next Vice Chair for Supervision, a key banking regulatory role. The move signals potential deregulation for U.S. banks.
Earnings Watch:
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Premarket: Dollar General (DG), FUTU
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After the Bell: Ulta Beauty (ULTA), DocuSign (DOCU), Rubrik (RBRK), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)
Key Economic Events (ET):
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8:30 AM: PPI, Unemployment Claims
Market Sentiment & Levels:
Volatility remains elevated but steady, with whale bias leaning bullish ahead of the PPI report. Overnight large trader volume was moderate.
ES price action: The market is consolidating near the center of its short-term downtrend channel, with key resistance at 5647/44, 5889/84, and 6156/51. Support levels to watch: 5524/21 and 5464/59.

ES -Week to Week


The bull/bear line for the ES is at 5608.00. Currently, price is hovering around 5606.25 in the Globex session, just below this key pivot. A sustained move below 5608.00 keeps the immediate bias bearish.
If sellers press further below 5608.00, look for a test of 5515.00, today’s lower range target. Below that level, additional support sits near 5427.50, followed by 5346.25.
On the upside, a recovery back above 5608.00 opens the door toward 5701.00, our upper range target. If momentum builds, the next resistance to watch is 5788.25, with more significant barriers showing up near 5962.75 and 6101.50.
Overall, use 5608.00 as the intraday bull/bear line to gauge whether buyers can regain control or if further downside remains the path of least resistance.
The long-term bull/bear line sits at 5907, until then we remain in a longer-term bearish mode.
NQ – Week to Week


The bull/bear line for NQ is at 19,606.25. Currently, price is hovering just above this level around 19,610.30 in the Globex session, suggesting a tentative bullish tilt if it can remain above 19,606.30.
On the upside, the first resistance to watch is near 19,833.00, followed by the upper range target at 20,006.50. A sustained break above these levels could open the door toward higher resistance in the 20,400.00–20,500.00 zone.
Should NQ slip back under the bull/bear line, look for immediate support at 19,387.00. Below that, the lower range target is 19,206.50. A failure to hold there exposes deeper support around 18,829.30. As long as price holds above 19,606.30, however, buyers retain the short-term advantage.
Our longer-term bull/bear line is at 20,835. Until we see those prices we are in an longer-range bear posture.
Calendars
Economic Calendar Today

This Week’s High Importance

Earnings:

Released

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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