Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:00ET U. of Mich. Sentiment

9:00ET NY Governor Hochul meets with Trump to discuss plans for an energy pipeline among other topics

Highlights and News:  

• NATO’S RUTTE: HAD VERY POSITIVE MEETING WITH TRUMP
• Schumer Retreats on Shutdown Threat, Enhancing Bill’s Prospects
• US Tightens Sanctions on Russian Energy
• Consumer Stocks Drove Strength In China Ahead Of Policy Presser To Boost Consumption
• American Airlines flight catches on fire after being diverted to Denver airport
• Hamas said it was ready to release a living American hostage and four bodies

World stocks rose as the threat of a US government shutdown receded and expectations grew that China will unveil measures to boost consumer demand. Bonds drove the
bulk of inflows this week, as global stocks had their largest outflows this year, Bank of America says. Bond funds drew $7.3B inflow, gold $1.9B, money market $1.8B inflow, while stocks had $2.8B outflows and $2B exited crypto, in the week to March 12, according
to a BofA note citing EPFR Global data. Mark Carney is set to be sworn in today, with the new Canadian PM due to unveil a slimmed-down cabinet. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said the temperature is being “lowered” after meeting with US Commerce Secretary Howard
Lutnick. Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow for the second day in a week, as US special envoy Steve Witkoff left the country, Russian news reported.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are broadly higher as a stopgap funding bill looked set to pass in Congress after Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer opted not to block the measure. That helped
lift the mood after the S&P 500 index extended its three-week rout beyond 10% on Thursday, a technical correction. The US stock rout is just a correction, not the start of a new bear market, and it’ll probably lead to intervention by the Fed or Donald Trump,
BofA’s Michael Hartnett said. Consumer sentiment stats due this morning round out a busy week of economic data. Investors are also gearing up for the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week, where fed funds futures are pricing in a 97% likelihood of interest
rates holding steady, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P %, Nasdaq %, Russell 2000 %, DJI %. E-Mini S&P 14 day RSI is most oversold since February 2020.  

In pre-market trading, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) surges 55% after the maker of fiber-optic networking products entered a warrant agreement with Amazon. Crown Castle
(CCI) rises 5% after agreeing to sell separate parts of its fiber business. DocuSign (DOCU) jumps 9% after the e-signature software company posted quarterly results that beat expectations and gave a positive outlook. Gogo (GOGO) rises 13% after the in-flight
broadband company forecast revenue for 2025 that beat estimates. Peloton Interactive (PTON) gains 6% as Canaccord upgrades its rating and says the company is set to reap the benefits of being the “clear leader” in the connected fitness market. Radius Recycling
(RDUS) soars 110% after Toyota Tsusho’s US unit, Toyota Tsusho America, agreed to buy all shares in cash for $30 a share. Rubrik (RBRK) surges 18% after the data security software company gave an outlook that is stronger than expected. Semtech (SMTC) rises
12% after the semiconductor device company gave an outlook that’s seen as better than feared. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) rises 6% after reporting earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Xponential Fitness (XPOF) drops 31%
after the franchiser of boutique fitness brands gave disappointing full-year forecasts.

The Retail sector ETF (XRT) has fallen into bear market territory.  14 day RSI is severely oversold.

Walmart is nearing its 200dma, down ~20% in the last month.

European gauges rose after German inflation slowed in February, with data showing consumer prices increased 2.6% from a year ago, versus expectations of 2.8%. Shares
extended gains after Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz reached an agreement with the Greens party on a fiscal reform package for large investments on infrastructure and defense, according to newspaper Handelsblatt. But the Greens immediately denied
it. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is holding gains with aero & defense, banks and miners outperforming, while media stocks fall the most. Universal Music Group down as much as 11% after shareholder Pershing Square offloaded shares in the company at a discount.
Kering SA shares fell 12% after the luxury-goods maker disappointed investors with the choice of Demna Gvasalia as the new artistic director for its struggling Gucci fashion label. Carlsberg A/S rose as much as 5% after RBC upgraded the beermaker. Stoxx 600
+0.8%, DAX +1.7%, CAC +1.2%, FTSE 100 +0.6%.  Aero & Defense +3%, Banks +2.3%, Basic Resources +2.1%. Media -1.2%, Healthcare -0.2%.

Shares in Asia advanced, propelled by a rally in Chinese shares as investor optimism for more policy support rose. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%, with Tencent
and Alibaba among the biggest boosts. China’s onshore CSI 300 Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index each jumped more than 2%. A surge in consumer shares pushed Chinese stocks higher, as investors awaited a press conference on Monday by officials
from Beijing’s top planning agency for news on additional measures to boost domestic consumption. Chinese banking stocks advanced as investors positioned for a possible reduction in banks’ reserve requirement ratio, which would free up more funds for lending.
CSI 300 +2.4%, Hang Seng Index +2.1%, Thailand +1.2%, Philippines +0.8%, Nikkei 225 +0.7%, ASX 200 +0.5%, Taiwan +0.03%. Vietnam ~flat, Kospi -0.3%, Indonesia -2%. 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries give back some of the gains from the prior session, when investors dashed to haven assets. French 30-year yields rise to the highest since 2011, after
a report that German parties have reached an agreement with the Greens on a debt package. Advance in US stock futures adds to cheapening pressure on Treasury yields with University of Michigan sentiment data the focus for the US session. Treasury yields are
cheaper by 1bp to 4bp across the curve with 10-year trading around 4.18%, cheaper by 3bp on the day. Long-end led losses in Treasuries adds steepening pressure on the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads wider by 3bp and 1bp.

METALS: 

Gold rose briefly above $3,000 an ounce for the first time, building on an historic rally as trade tensions and US rate cut bets supercharge its appeal as a safe
store of value. As traders braced for tariffs, US prices for gold surged above other international benchmarks, prompting dealers to rush bullion into America in large volumes before the levies come into force. More than 23 million ounces of gold, worth about
$70 billion, flowed into the depositories of New York’s Comex futures exchange between election day and March 12. The influx has been so vast that it helped drive the US trade deficit to a record in January. Spot gold +0.25%, Silver +0.15%, Copper +0.2%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rose as the possibility for a ceasefire in Ukraine faded, dashing hopes that a quick end to the war would mean the return of Russian energy supplies to
the market. The US tightened sanctions on Russia by restricting payments for energy. It let a license expire for a handful of Russian banks still allowed to receive payments in dollars. Crude firmed as the US tightened sanctions against Iran, in addition to
ongoing trade tensions. The White House imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil minister as well as companies and vessels involved in transporting crude. China and Russia stood by Iran after the United States demanded nuclear talks with Tehran, with senior Chinese
and Russian diplomats saying dialogue should only resume based on “mutual respect” and all sanctions ought to be lifted. WTI +0.9%, Brent +0.8%, US Nat Gas -1.3%, RBOB +0.3%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the euro is pushing higher with European bond yields after signs of progress in German debt talks. Sterling weakened after data showed the UK
economy unexpectedly shrank at the start of 2025. Gross domestic product fell 0.1% in January, the fourth contraction in the first seven months since Labour returned to power last summer. The yen fell against all its Group-of-10 peers as investors trimmed
long exposure while the dollar eased. Japan’s largest labor union group said its workers secured the highest pay deal in more than three decades, supporting the case for further gradual interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD -0.1%,
EURUSD +0.5%, USDJPY +0.6%, AUDUSD +0.4%, NZDUSD +0.5%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.7%.

Bitcoin +3.5%, Ethereum +3.3%. Russia is using cryptocurrencies in its oil trade with China and India to skirt Western sanctions, according to sources. Some Russian
oil companies are using bitcoin, ether and stablecoins such as Tether to smooth the conversion of Chinese yuan and Indian rupees to Russian rubles, adding that it is a small but growing part of Russia’s overall oil trade.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Allogene (ALLO) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $5
• American Express (AXP) Raised to Neutral at Baird; PT $265
• Bird Construction (BDT CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$31
• Charter Communications (CHTR) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $425
• Check Point Software (CHKP) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo
• Chipotle (CMG) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $65
• Crown Castle (CCI) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James
• Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $120
• Danaher (DHR) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $260
• Empire Co (EMP/A CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$49
• Goeasy (GSY CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$200
• Micron (MU) Raised to Buy at Aletheia Capital; PT $145
• MYR Group (MYRG) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $136
• Nektar (NKTR) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $6
• Peloton (PTON) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT $10
• Revolve Group (RVLV) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $30
• Downgrades
• Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $7
• Cannabist Co Holdings Inc/The (CBST CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord
• Equifax (EFX) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $265
• Sutro Biopharma (STRO) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $2
• T-Mobile (TMUS) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $268
• Xponential (XPOF) Cut to Neutral at Stifel; PT $12
• Initiations
• 89bio (ETNB) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $11
• ANI Pharma (ANIP) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $80
• Astera Labs (ALAB) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
• Avient Corp (AVNT) Rated New Neutral at Baird; PT $43
• CAAP (CAAP) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $22.50
• Protara Therapeutics Inc (TARA) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• Sana Biotech (SANA) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $7
• Six Flags (FUN) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $41
• United Parks & Resorts (PRKS) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
• Viper Energy Inc (VNOM) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $51
• Waystar (WAY) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $45

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke