Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods; 10:00ET Fed’s Kashkari speaks; 11:30ET 2-year FRN
reopening; 1:00ET 5-year note auction; 1:10ET Fed’s Musalem speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Mexico’s Ebrard to Visit Washington for Trade Talks Today
• Trump says he doesn’t want ‘too many’ exceptions in tariff push
• Fed’s Goolsbee Says Next Rate Cut May Take Longer Than Anticipated: FT
• US Tariffs on Copper May Come Within Weeks
  
• Russell Wilson is reportedly joining the New York Giants

World stocks slip as cautious traders awaited clarity on President Trump’s trade policy ahead of a new round of tariffs next week. The European Union’s trade commissioner
met with US trade officials on Tuesday in an attempt to avoid steep tariffs on EU goods next week, but results of the talks were unclear. Trump told Newsmax he’ll limit exceptions to planned April 2 reciprocal levies. British markets are in focus today with
Finance Minister Rachel Reeves set to announce cuts to her spending plans in an attempt to show investors that she can be trusted to fix the public finances amid slowing economic growth.  Morgan Stanley raised targets for Chinese shares for the second time
this year, citing improved earnings growth forecasts and a more optimistic outlook for the economy and currency.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures steadied, holding near recent gains as investors looked to President Trump’s latest comments for more clarity on the scope of looming tariffs. Meanwhile, the White House
appears to be accelerating its plans for copper levies. Shares in Tesla and Nvidia edged lower in pre-market trading. Nvidia sales may be affected by China’s new energy rules for advanced chips, the FT reported. Tesla is lower ahead of the bell after adding
~28% over the past five sessions. Qualcomm launched an antitrust push against Arm in the US, Europe and South Korea, accusing its biggest supplier of anticompetitive behavior, sources said. GOP leaders said they’re getting close to agreeing on a plan to pass
an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and an increase to the debt ceiling. 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.03%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.01%, DJI +0.05%.

In pre-market trading, Shares of Dollar Tree (DLTR) are rising 5% after the discount retailer announced a deal to sell its Family Dollar brand to a pair of private-equity
firms for $1 billion. Video game retailer GameStop jumped 14% after it said its board approved adding Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. Global-e Online (GLBE) rises 3% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the software firm to overweight. Humacyte (HUMA) slides
26% after the biotech firm offers 25 million shares at $2 apiece, a discount of around 30% to its previous close. Playtika (PLTK) rises 7% following a double upgrade of the mobile-games company at BofA. Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) rises 4% after Citi upgraded
the biotech to buy on stronger conviction on the firm’s HARMONI-2 clinical trial.

European gauges turned negative from early gains, while UK shares outperform after data showed inflation unexpectedly slowed, strengthening the case for the Bank of
England to cut interest rates. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell, with health care and auto stocks declining the most while energy gained. Miners erased gains that were driven by a Bloomberg News report that US tariffs on copper imports could be coming within
several weeks, months earlier than the deadline for a decision.  Among individual movers, Anglo American erased early gains a report said the company has begun initial talks with banks about listing its De Beers diamond unit.  Stoxx 600 -0.5%, DAX -0.6%, CAC
-0.7%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. Energy +1.3%, Insurance +0.4%. Autos -1.4%, Healthcare -1.4%, Technology -1%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher, helped by gains in Chinese technology heavyweights and a rally in Indonesia’s market. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4% with
Nintendo among the biggest contributors after Goldman Sachs reinstated coverage of the Japanese game maker with a buy rating. The Jakarta Composite Index jumped nearly 4%, the most in the region, after several state-owned banks increased their dividend payouts.
Stocks in Australia closed higher after the government unveiled tax cuts and other sweeteners in a pre-election budget. Thailand’s SET Index rose after Prime Minister Shinawatra survived a no-confidence vote earlier in the day. Indonesia +3.8%, Kospi +1.1%,
ASX 200 +0.7%, Nikkei 225 +0.6%, Hang Seng Index +0.6%, Thailand +0.5%, Singapore +0.2%, Philippines +0.1%. Taiwan -0.5%, CSI 300 -0.3%, Vietnam -0.4%, Sensex -0.9%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are higher by 2-3bps across the curve ahead of 5-year note auction this afternoon. 2s10s curve is steeper by 4bps. Treasury auction cycle continues
with $70 billion 5-year note sale following good demand for 2-year notes on Tuesday. It concludes with $44 billion 7-year note auction Thursday.  Chicago Fed President Goolsbee cautioned it may take longer than anticipated for the next rate cut because of
economic uncertainty. 

METALS: 

Gold prices rose for a second straight session, buoyed by safe-haven demand as markets awaited further clarity on President Trump’s trade policies. The US goods-trade
deficit is expected to stay near an all-time high due to a sharp increase in gold bullion deliveries from abroad into New York depositories. Stockpiles have surged in recent months on concerns precious metals may be included in the Trump administration’s broad
tariffs. Inventories of gold in New York’s commodities exchange surged another 25% last month after climbing 43% in January.  Comex copper futures surge to new record highs on a report that US import tariffs could be coming within weeks. Spot gold +0.3%, Silver
+0.15%, Copper +1.3%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices moved higher as the United States stepped up efforts to limit Venezuelan and Iranian oil exports, while a bigger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories
also lent support. US crude inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, while fuel supplies also declined, API data said. Official government data on crude inventories is due today. The US said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea,
even as the Kremlin said its involvement would depend on a series of preconditions, including sanctions relief. WTI +1%, Brent +0.9%, US Nat Gas -+0.3%, RBOB +0.6%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, Sterling weakened after data showed British inflation slowed to an annual rate of 2.8% in February from 3% a month earlier, as traders waited
for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’s fiscal statement. The yen eased after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda indicated he aims to keep his options open ahead of the bank’s next policy meeting, as traders searched for hints on the next rate hike timing.
The Aussie$ fell briefly after Australia’s monthly inflation slowed in February to 2.4%, boosting RBA rate-cut case. It reverses losses on exporter buying, traders said. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.3%, EURUSD +0.02%, USDJPY +0.15%, AUDUSD +0.4%, NZDUSD +0.45%,
USDNOK -0.15%, USDCAD -0.2%, USDSEK +0.1%.

Bitcoin +0.25%, Ethereum +0.3%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Ashland Inc (ASH) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $71
• CarMax (KMX) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $90
• ConnectOne Banc (CNOB) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $32
• Global-e Online (GLBE) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $46
• New Gold (NGD CN) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $3.90
• Perimeter Solutions (PRM) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $14
• Playtika (PLTK) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $6.50
• Range Resources (RRC) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $35
• Trade Desk (TTD) Raised to Buy at CFRA
• Waters (WAT) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $407
• Downgrades
• ArcelorMittal (MT NA) ADRs Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $36.20
• AZEK (AZEK) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Cemex (CEMEXCPO MM) ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $8
• Micron (MU) Cut to Hold at China Renaissance; PT $84
• Tesla (TSLA) Cut to Hold at Mirae Asset Securities; PT $310
• Westlake Corp (WLK) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $120
• Initiations
• A&W Food Services of Canada (AW CN) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC
• Cipher Mining (CIFR) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $6
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $80
• Erasca (ERAS) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $5
• First Bancorp NC (FBNC) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $48
• HomeTrust Banc (HTB) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $43
• Lakeland Industries (LAKE) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $28
• Nexxen International Ltd (NEXN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $12
• Ovintiv (OVV) Resumed Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Palvella Therapeutics In (PVLA) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $45
• Shake Shack (SHAK) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $95
• Spotify (SPOT) Rated New Buy at China Renaissance; PT $740
• StoneX Group Inc (SNEX) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Tantalus Systems Holding (GRID CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
• Tenet (THC) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $165
• Universal Health (UHS) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Wingstop (WING) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $270

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke