Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Unemployment Report; 11:25ET Fed Chair Powell speaks; 12:00ET Fed’s Barr speaks;
12:45ET Fed’s Waller speaks

US MAR NONFARM PAYROLLS +228K; PRIVATE +209K, GOVT +19K

Highlights and News:  

• China will impose additional tariffs of 34% on all US goods starting April 10
• Trump open to tariff cuts in return for ‘phenomenal’ offers
• Italy’s sovereign rating is up for review at Fitch today
• China Probes DuPont China on Alleged Anti-Monopoly Violation
  

World stocks are lower again as Trump’s latest tariff measures stretches into a second day.  The drop comes as China retaliated against US tariffs with its levies
of its own, imposing a 34% tariff on all American imports starting April 10. Europe’s leading trade official will meet with US counterparts today as nations worldwide grapple with how to address Trump’s tariff onslaught, which has sparked recession concerns
and unleashed a global stock market plunge. A global selloff in bank shares turned ominous with a collapse in Japanese bank stocks to their worst weekly loss in at least four decades, while US and European lenders continued to decline. Trump said he was open
to reducing his tariffs if other nations were able to offer something “phenomenal,” indicating that the White House was open to negotiations.   

EQUITIES: 
S&P 500 circuit breakers: -7% 15 min halt, 13% is another 15 min halt, 20% mkt closes for day.

US equity futures added to losses overnight after the S&P 500 Index’s worst day since 2020 that erased $2.5 trillion in value in the wake of President Trump’s drastic new trade tariffs. 
Volatility is roaring back as the Cboe Volatility Index soared above 39, its highest level this year. Nvidia drops below $100 for the first time since August 2024 as China announces 34% reciprocal tariffs on all US goods. Focus this morning will be on the
monthly jobs print, which could have wide-ranging implications for markets as well as the Fed’s next moves. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver remarks later in the morning.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -2.8%, Nasdaq -3%, Russell 2000 -4%, DJI -2.8%.

In pre-market trading, Amazon and Tesla are falling the most among the Magnificent Seven stocks: Microsoft (MSFT) -4.3%, Meta (META) -5.1%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -3.7%,
Apple (AAPL) -5.7%, Amazon (AMZN) -7.8%, Nvidia (NVDA) -5.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -6.9%. US-listed Chinese stocks extend losses after China announced 34% tariffs on all imports from the US. Alibaba (BABA) -9.8%, Baidu (BIDU) -7.4%, PDD (PDD) -8.6%, JD.com (JD) -9.9%,
NetEase (NTES) -6.6%, Trip.com (TCOM) -5.9%. Nordstrom (JWN) edges 1.9% lower after Citi cuts the retailer to sell. RxSight (RXST) falls 6% following a record regular-session decline of 38%. JPMorgan joins BofA in downgrading the maker of lens implants to
a sell. Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) soars 16% after granting Eli Lilly exclusive rights to use its neurotropic adeno-associated virus capsid for up to five neurological disease targets. Upwork (UPWK) falls 6% after BTIG downgraded the online recruiter to neutral
amid rising risks including international exposure and AI.

Nasdaq 100 futures hit bear market territory.

European gauges plummeted, with all sectors in the red, as China retaliated against US tariffs. Shares in European lenders extended losses, with the bank sector falling
as much as 10% to its lowest since early February, after falling 5.5% on Thursday. German factory orders were flat on the month in February, missing expectations for a 3.4% increase. The picture was brighter in France and Spain, where output rose 0.7% in each.
Among individual stock movers, Gerresheimer AG fell as much as 21% after Bloomberg News reported KKR & Co. has walked away from a private equity consortium discussing a takeover of the German maker of drugs and cosmetics packaging. Stoxx 600 -4.3%, DAX -4.2%,
CAC -3.9%, FTSE 100 -3.8%. Banks -8.2%, Basic Resources -7.4%, Aero & Defense -6.7%, Industrials -5.9%.

Shares in Asia ended a pivotal week on a dismal note with another broad selloff for the region, which is bearing the brunt of wide-ranging US reciprocal tariffs. The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1.8%, with all major national equity benchmarks in the red. Sectors sensitive to economic growth such as materials, energy, industrials and financials have been the biggest losers this week. This week’s declines of 20% or more
in shares of Japan’s three megabanks are the biggest since the financial crisis of 2008 – in one of the markets’ most alarming indicators yet of the fallout from Trump’s trade war. Japanese equities suffer deep losses with Topix index down more than 4%. South
Korean stocks stage a brief relief rally after the Constitutional Court removes President Yoon, triggering an election. Indian drugmakers slumped after Trump said tariffs on pharmaceuticals are still under review. China markets were closed for local holidays.
Topix -3.4%, Thailand -3.2%, Singapore -3%, ASX 200 -2.5%, Vietnam -1.6%, Sensex -1.2%, Philippines -1%, Kospi -0.9%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

The rally in US Treasuries accelerated after China said it would impose a 34% tariff on all imports from the US, spurring fears of a global trade war. That pushed
US 10-year yields below 3.90%, the lowest since before election day. Traders have increased their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. Money markets are fully pricing in four quarter-point reductions by year end, with a 50%
chance of a fifth, and a quarter-point move by June is already fully priced in. Flight to the safety of bonds lifted 10-year Japanese government bond futures almost to the threshold for a trading halt, while yields were set for a drop of 35 basis points on
the week – the largest fall since 1993. US 10-year yield is down another 13 bps to around 3.90% ahead of the US jobs report. Front-end-led gains — as more Fed easing is priced in — extend the steepening in 2s10s and 5s30s curves by as much as 3bp and 6bp on
the day.

METALS: 

Gold moved further away from its latest record high, swept up in the pessimistic mood that hit global markets in the wake of Trump’s more-aggressive-than-expected
tariff agenda. While gold is typically seen as a safe haven in times of heightened uncertainty, it can also join pronounced selloffs as investors are forced to raise cash to offset losses in other markets.  Copper, a vital component for energy storage, electric
vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines plunged more than 6%, its biggest loss since July 2022. Spot gold was down over half a percent around $3,100 an ounce, still on track for a fifth weekly gain. Silver — which plunged 6% on Thursday in its biggest one-day
fall since June — also fell. Spot gold -0.6%, Silver -2.6%, Copper -6%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices extend their selloff with WTI falling to the lowest since August 2021 after China hit back over Trump’s tariff blitz with its own mammoth levy on US goods,
inflaming global trade war fears. Goldman cut its December Brent forecast by $5 to $66 and warned of further downside risks from recession fears and rising OPEC+ supply. Morgan Stanley held its projection of a drop to $67.50. WTI -7.8%, Brent -7.2%, US Nat
Gas -3%, RBOB -5.8%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed in volatile trading ahead of today’s employment report. Swiss franc and euro push higher, but Aussie and kiwi tumble amid
risk aversion after China retaliated against US tariffs with a slew of new measures. The US jobs market is expected to have held up in March with the jobless rate seen holding steady at a historically low level of 4.1%, before the negative impacts from tariffs.
US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD -0.6%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD -3.4%, NZDUSD -2.6%, USDCHF -1%, USDCAD +0.6%, USDSEK +1.8%, USDNOK +2.5%, USDMXN +2%. 

Bitcoin +0.3%, Ethereum -0.9%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• ADT Inc (ADT) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $9
• Booking (BKNG) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $5,500
• BRP Inc. (DOO CN) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT C$52
• Centerspace (CSR) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $77
• Coherent Corp (COHR) Raised to Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $85
• Danone (BN FP) ADRs Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $17.50
• Eastman Chemical (EMN) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $101
• Equity LifeStyle (ELS) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $78
• Fabrinet (FN) Raised to Neutral at B Riley; PT $176
• Flagstar Financial (FLG) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $15
• Genuine Parts (GPC) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $135
• Monro (MNRO) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $18
• Pine Cliff Energy (PNE CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins
• RBC (RY CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$168
• Towne Bank (TOWN) Raised to Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $38
• Downgrades
• AvalonBay (AVB) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $220
• Bank of Montreal (BMO CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$141
• BRP Inc. (DOO CN) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT C$60
• Brunswick (BC) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $56
• Camping World (CWH) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $18
• Dorian LPG (LPG) Cut to Sell at Arctic Securities; PT $15.40
• Dow (DOW) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $31
• Edap TMS SA (EDAP) ADRs Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $2
• Equifax (EFX) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $260
• Goldman Sachs (GS) Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $560
• Kraft Heinz (KHC) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $27
• LCI Industries (LCII) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $100
• LyondellBasell (LYB) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $60
• Malibu Boats (MBUU) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $32
• MasterCraft Boat (MCFT) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $20
• Mr Cooper (COOP) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $143
• National Bank of Canada (NA CN) Cut to Underperform at CIBC; PT C$115
• Nestle (NESN SW) ADRs Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $91
• Nordstrom (JWN) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $22
• OneWater Marine (ONEW) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $18
• Open Lending (LPRO) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Patrick Industries (PATK) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $96
• Polaris (PII) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $40
• Progressive (PGR) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $287
• Quebecor (QBR/B CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$38
• RumbleON (RMBL) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $3
• RXO (RXO) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• RxSight (RXST) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $17
• Thor Industries (THO) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $85
• UniFirst (UNF) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $152
• Upwork (UPWK) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Winnebago Industries (WGO) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $38
• Initiations
• Atai Life Sciences (ATAI) Rated New Positive at Berenberg
• Cameco (CCO CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$86
• CanAlaska Uranium (CVV CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$1.40
• Capstone Copper (CS CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$12
• Ceribell (CBLL) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $32
• Coca-Cola Europacific (CCEP) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Denison Mines (DML CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$4
• Driven Brands (DRVN) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $22
• Enbridge (ENB CN) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT C$75
• ERO Copper (ERO CN) Rated New Hold at Desjardins; PT C$25
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Rated New Hold at Desjardins; PT C$23
• Hudbay Minerals (HBM CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$16
• Lattice Semi (LSCC) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $85
• Lundin Mining (LUN CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$17
• NGEx Minerals (NGEX CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$20
• NRG Energy (NRG) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $129
• Primo Brands (PRMB) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $42
• Savers Value Village (SVV) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• TC Energy (TRP CN) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT C$75
• Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$74
• Valvoline (VVV) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $40
• Vistra Corp (VST) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $134

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke