Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on April 9, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:00ET Wholesale Inventories; 11:00ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 1:00ET 10-year note auction;
2:00ET FOMC Meeting Minutes; 4:00ET Vietnam Deputy PM meets with Bessent

Highlights and News:  

  • CHINA RAISES TARIFFS ON US GOODS TO 84%, ADDS MORE US FIRMS TO UNRELIABLE LIST
  • Iran Vows to Never Pursue Nuclear Weapons Ahead of Talks With US
  • Chinese Companies Tell Workers to Work Less, Spend More
  • Vietnam’s deputy PM to meet US Treasury Secretary Bessent today: Japan, S. Korea, India want to talk
  • China firmly rejects vilification on China-Panama cooperation
  • EU TRADE CHIEF DISCUSSED PARAMETERS TO LOWER TARIFFS WITH US
  • US NOW PLANS BASE PORT FEES ON CHINESE VESSEL CAPACITY: WSJ

 

Global stocks fell as Trump’s eye-watering 104% tariffs on China took effect, dealing a powerful blow to the world economy as he pushes forward efforts to drastically
reorder global trade. The stampede from stocks and bonds gathered momentum as China retaliated to US tariffs with new levies of its own, upping the ante in the trade war that has roiled global markets. China said it will raise additional tariffs for imported
goods originating in the US to 84% from 34% from 12:01 on April 10. Drugmakers’ stocks in Europe and India dropped after President Trump reiterated plans for a “major” tariff on all pharmaceutical imports, leading to a further carnage in global markets. Trump
has said that the tariffs will incentivize drug companies to move their operations to the US. Analysts pointed to Europe accounting for about 80% of US trade deficit in biopharma. The EU is expected to approve today the bloc’s first countermeasures against
Trump’s tariffs. Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez is visiting China to discuss trade and economic cooperation. Iran’s President Pezeshkian said his country will provide “any necessary guarantees” that it doesn’t want to develop nuclear weapons as it prepares
for talks with the US this weekend.     

 

EQUITIES: 
Fear & Greed Index currently at 3, matching the lowest of this move. I have seen a 2 a few times and a 1 only once, during the Covid 2020 break marking the bottom…

US equity futures reversed early overnight lows to turn positive before plunging back into the red after China signaled openness to talks with the US, while reiterating a willingness
to “fight to the end.” Since Trump unveiled his tariffs last Wednesday, the S&P 500 has suffered its deepest loss since the benchmark’s creation in the 1950s. Futures turned sharply lower around 7:00ET after China announced additional tariff measures on US
goods of 84%. Shares in large US drugmakers fell after Trump said the US was planning to announce “a major tariff on pharmaceuticals” soon. Vietnam’s Deputy Prime Minister is set to meet with Treasury Secretary Bessent today and also plans to meet Boeing,
SpaceX and Apple executives this week. Apple supplier Luxshare is in talks with customers on ways to respond to tariffs by shifting more production outside China, including the US. Walmart reiterated its guidance of net sales growth between 3% to 4% this year,
despite tariffs and a weakening consumer sentiment.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -2%, Nasdaq -1.8%, Russell 2000 -2.9%, DJI -2% at 8:15ET.

In pre-market trading, Drugmaker stocks slide after Trump said the US is planning to announce “a major tariff” on the sector soon. Pfizer (PFE) -4.4%, Merck (MRK) -4.4%,
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) -3.9%, Biogen (BIIB) -2.0%, Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) -3.3%, Amgen (AMGN) -3.7%, Moderna (MRNA) -2.5%, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) -3.4%. Cal-Maine (CALM) drops 5% after the egg producer reported results that missed estimates. Constellation
Energy (CEG) shares inch higher by less than 1% after Citi upgraded the nuclear power provider to buy. Ford Motor (F) slips 2.9% as Bernstein downgraded the carmaker to underperform. Peabody Energy (BTU) soars 12% after Trump signed executive orders to expand
the mining and use of coal in the US. Satellogic (SATL) jumps 4% after the satellite company said it had been awarded a $30 million contract to provide analytics to a “strategic defense and security customer.”

European gauges plummeted as China retaliated with higher tariffs on the US. European drugmakers slid after Trump said “a major tariff” on the industry would be coming
soon. The Stoxx 600 drops over 3%, with all sectors in the red. Health care, energy, and real estate lead losses. Shares of AstraZeneca, GSK, Roche, Sanofi, and Novartis all fell more than 5% in Europe. AstraZeneca, Roche and Sanofi could be more immune given
their increasing manufacturing capabilities in the US. Stoxx 600 -4.25%, DAX -4%, CAC -3.9%, FTSE 100 -3.5%. Healthcare -6.2%, Real Estate -5.4%, Energy -5.2%, Basic Resources -4.5%. 

Shares in Asia dropped as tariffs implemented by President Trump took effect, with total levies on China climbing to 104%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.4%, with
TSMC, Hitachi and Mitsubishi among the biggest drags. Taiwan led losses, tumbling more than 5%, while key gauges slid more than 3% in Japan. Shares in Korea slumped into a bear market territory. Chinese stocks bucked the trend, however, as state support propped
up the market. Chinese chip stocks rose on rising expectations for localization and AI demand amid escalating trade war. Chinese ship building related shares surged after Reuters reported that the US is considering softening its proposed fee on China-linked
ships visiting US ports. Taiwan -5.8%, Topix -3.4%, Vietnam -3.4%, Singapore -2.2%, ASX 200 -1.8%, Kospi -1.7%, Sensex -0.5%. Hang Seng Index +0.7%, CSI 300 +1%, Thailand +1.3%, CSI 1000 +2.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

China retaliated to US tariffs with new levies of its own, causing a selloff in stocks and a surge in the yield on 30-year Treasuries. Treasuries bounced off session
lows, but remain firmly in the red, with 30-year yields having briefly tested 5% as doubts grow over the haven status of US debt. 10-year note yield ~4.44%: was up 17 basis points at one point at 4.47%, bringing its rise over the last three days to nearly
47 bps, one of the sharpest short term rises in the last 25 years. US yield curve has steepened further, though spreads are off session highs, with 2s10s wider by about 10bp, 5s30s by about 2bp. US session includes $39 billion 10-year note auction following
soft demand for Tuesday’s 3-year note sale, which tailed by 2.4bp.  UK 30-year yields earlier hit their highest since 1998, as contagion from the selloff in US 30-year bonds spread.

 

METALS: 

Gold regained its upward momentum and was last up nearly 3% at $3,070 per ounce, as investors sought safety amid escalating global trade war fears, recession risks,
a weaker dollar, and rising expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Supporting the rally, gold-backed exchange-traded funds saw their largest quarterly inflow in three years from January to March 2025, according to World Gold Council data. Spot gold +2.9%, Silver
+2.7%, Copper +1% at 8:00ET.

 

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices dropped by more than 7%, to their lowest in four years after China announced additional tariffs, with worries about the future of global energy demand
overshadowing any geopolitical tensions. Brent futures slipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since 2021. The market’s forward curve has also dramatically repriced, pointing to an emerging oversupply just a few months down the line. Losses have been
compounded by a decision by the OPEC+ alliance to loosen output curbs at a faster clip than previously expected. WTI -6.2%, Brent -6%, US Nat Gas -1.4%, RBOB -5%: as of 7:45ET. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar – the ultimate safe-haven in times of turmoil – fell broadly, as investors dashed into the likes of the yen and the Swiss franc. The
euro rallied as much as 1.2% on German fiscal hopes before trimming gains. The ECB should lower interest rates “soon” as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the fallout on global markets favor such a move, according to Governing Council member Francois
Villeroy de Galhau; a cut next week is fully priced in. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates for a fifth straight meeting, lowering the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%, citing downside risks to economic growth and inflation due to US tariffs.
The New Zealand dollar was little changed after the decision as the RBNZ noted that its recent decline will help cushion the impact of decreased global demand for New Zealand exports. The yen jumped as Bank of Japan Governor Ueda reaffirmed the BOJ’s stance
to raise interest rates if its economic outlook is realized. Meanwhile, China is guiding the yuan weaker at a carefully orchestrated pace. Trump said China was manipulating its currency to protect against tariffs, but he thought China would make a deal at
some point. US$ Index -0.7%, GBPUSD +0.15%, EURUSD +0.7%, USDJPY -1%, AUDUSD +0.7%, NZDUSD +0.3%, USDCHF -0.9%, USDCAD -0.5%, USDMXN +0.4%.

 

 

Bitcoin -1.2%, Ethereum -1.8%. 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Americold Realty Trust (COLD) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $21
    • Apple (AAPL) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $167.88
    • Associated Banc (ASB) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $26
    • Bath & Body Works (BBWI) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $35
    • CF Industries (CF) Raised to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $81
    • Constellation Energy (CEG) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $232
    • Eastman Chemical (EMN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $91
    • Extra Space (EXR) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $149
    • First Bancorp PR (FBP) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $20
    • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $40
    • Noah Holdings (NOAH) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $11.50
    • Popular (BPOP) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $100
    • PrairieSky Royalty (PSK CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$27
    • Public Storage (PSA) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Simon Property (SPG) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $168.50
    • SiriusXM (SIRI) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities
    • Starbucks (SBUX) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $76
    • Travelers (TRV) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $247
  • Downgrades
    • Bio-Techne (TECH) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Bloom Energy (BE) Cut to Sell at Redburn; PT $10
    • Ford (F) Cut to Underperform at Bernstein
    • Harvard Bioscience (HBIO) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Health Catalyst (HCAT) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
    • Invesco (IVZ) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $13
    • LyondellBasell (LYB) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $62
    • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
    • OFG Bancorp (OFG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $42
    • PTC Inc. (PTC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $160
    • Rallybio (RLYB) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
    • RxSight (RXST) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $16
    • W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $69
  • Initiations
    • Acadia Health (ACHC) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $36
    • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $50
    • Ardent Health Partners (ARDT) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $16
    • Atlantic Union (AUB) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $32
    • Bionano Genomics Inc (BNGO) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $10
    • Block (XYZ) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $52
    • Boot Barn (BOOT) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $100
    • Casella Waste (CWST) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $130
    • Centene (CNC) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Cigna (CI) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $384
    • Community Health (CYH) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Couchbase (BASE) Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $20
    • CRH (CRH) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $114
    • CubeSmart (CUBE) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $39
    • Elevance (ELV) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $518
    • Extra Space (EXR) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $141
    • Firan Technology (FTG CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$10
    • Global Payments (GPN) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $85
    • HCA Healthcare (HCA) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Humana (HUM) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $326
    • Mastercard (MA) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $550
    • Molina (MOH) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • National Storage (NSA) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $35
    • Newlake Capital Partners (NLCP) US Rated New Neutral at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $14
    • Palvella Therapeutics In (PVLA) US Rated New Buy at Chardan Capital Markets; PT $50
    • PayPal (PYPL) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $65
    • Planet 13 (PLTH CN) Rated New Sector Perform at ATB Capital
    • Public Storage (PSA) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $287
    • Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $80
    • Six Flags (FUN) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $49
    • Standex (SXI) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $175
    • Tenet (THC) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $165
    • Toast (TOST) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $29
    • Tractor Supply (TSCO) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $56
    • United Parks & Resorts (PRKS) Rated New Neutral at UBS
    • Universal Health (UHS) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $208
    • Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Rated New Outperform at Daiwa; PT $73
    • Visa (V) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $330
    • VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $36

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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