on April 14, 2025

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Our View

Gold made a high at $3,263, crude oil rallied up to $61.87, CBOT bonds were down 0.88%, and the 10-year note closed up 0.64%, with its yield finishing its sharpest one-week rise in more than two decades. Bitcoin closed up 5.47%. The VIX sold off down to close at 28.70 down 7% for the day, the U.S. dollar fell Friday for a fifth straight day, its worst week since 2022, while the euro surged. The ES closed up 93.75 points at 5395.75, down 9.83% YTD and 12.6% from its all-time high. The NQ settled at 18,820.50, up 1.82%, down 17.10% from its all-time high, down 10.25% and 13.4% YTD. The YM closed up 1.62% at 40,443.00, down 10.25% from its 2024 all-time contract high and down 4.70% YTD.

It’s still the same thing for me, I am an equal-opportunity trader. Whichever way it’s going, I want to go for the ride. Right now, we are going up, but we all know how the rallies have ended. Is this rally different? Well, if you are depending on Trump, he stressed in a social-media post on Sunday that “NOBODY is getting ‘off the hook'” on tariffs and that levies on tech products are simply moving to a different bucket.

If you have not caught up with the latest market-moving headlines, here are a few. I have to say I have never seen anything like this, and nor have you.

New York Fed President John Williams warned that growth could slow and inflation could rise to 4%.
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon said the economy faces “considerable turbulence,” even as his bank reported quarterly results aided by blockbuster trading volumes.
OPEC+, which includes all members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus 10 non-OPEC oil-producing countries, said it will gradually remove the cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day.
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro: “We’ve got 90 deals in 90 days possibly pending here.” Navarro continued, “And it was par for the course — actually, it was a birdie — for President Trump to do exactly what he did, which was pause for 90 days. And we’re going to get this done for the American people.”
The Trump administration’s exemptions for electronics imported to the United States will remain exempt from the President’s reciprocal tariffs, according to a U.S. Customs and Border Protection notice posted late Friday.
Shifting Signals on Tech Tariffs Fuel Fresh Trade Uncertainty: Trump says tech products exempted from “reciprocal” tariffs could soon see additional levies.

The PitBull has a rule that the 14th of the month is considered ‘mid-month’ — a time when money moves into stocks. I know some say it’s the 15th, but it’s not. It’s Sunday night and the ES just opened 50 points higher off the Trump electronics tariff exemption then rallied up to 5474.75 before dropping 50 points. I think liquidity is going to be a big problem in the coming months. As I write this, the bonds are down another 16 points and the volume on the ES ladder at night is 1 lots, 2 lots and, oh, a 12 lot. I remember when the ES ladder had 25k bids or offers, up or down within 5 or 6 points during the day, but volume has dropped significantly. Yes, it’s doing 2.5 million to 3 million contracts a day and yes, you can see larger bids and offers, but they get swept by a big order or they are auto-canceled.

Our Lean

This week has a high number of economic releases — 12 economic reports, 4 Fed speakers, and Powell speaking at the Economic Club in Chicago on Wednesday, 4/16 — along with a slew of corporate earnings, all happening right in the middle of the tariff wars. Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Netflix (NFLX) are expected to provide updates.

Our lean: the tariff exemptions should give the Magnificent 7 a boost. Remember my friend from B of A and the “big buy” on the March Quad Witching? Well, again, he told me something — and I’m not sure where the data came from or how it was collected — but he said he was looking at a study that, based on the first quarter or year-to-date performance, predicts that every day for the rest of the year will average a 2% daily move.

Let’s face it, there has been an enormous shift and it’s still shifting — and it’s left the U.S. economically and militarily vulnerable. Can the ES keep going up? PitBull said 4650, I had 4750. I thought everything was oversold last week, but after such a big bounce, it seems like the news has shifted for the better, for now.

If the ES gaps sharply higher and is at or near its high on the 9:30 open, I’m a seller — and vice versa on the gap down. I think we are going higher and want to buy the pullbacks, but I just don’t know how big those pullbacks will be. 50 points? 80 points? 100 points? We shall see.

MiM and Daily Recap

The overnight Globex session exhibited initial weakness, as ES began the session at 5299.25 and traded down to a low of 5206.00 before recovering slightly to close at 5281.00, marking an 18.50-point drop (-0.35%) from the previous cash close. At the open of the regular session at 9:30 AM ET, the futures printed a session low of 5262.25, setting the stage for significant volatility.

Early buying pressure quickly emerged, lifting ES sharply to 5340.50 by 9:54 AM ET, representing a 78.25-point advance from the morning low. The market then reversed, retreating to a fresh intraday low of 5251.50 by 10:30 AM. Buyers swiftly returned, driving prices up to 5325.75 by 11:00 AM before another pullback established support at 5259.50 at 11:18 AM.

Momentum notably shifted midday, initiating a sustained upward movement. The futures rallied substantially, reaching a lower inflection point of 5340.25 at 1:30 PM before climbing sharply higher. ES hit a key intraday high of 5418.25 at 1:54 PM, representing a significant advance from the earlier low, followed by a moderate retracement to 5368.25 at 2:21 PM. Subsequent trading remained volatile yet bullish, as ES ascended again to 5398.25 by 2:48 PM. Minor selling pressure resulted in a quick drop to 5376.25 at 3:01 PM, but buyers retained control, propelling ES to an afternoon peak of 5414.25 at 3:27 PM. In the final half-hour, prices moderated slightly, closing the regular session at 5390.00, up 108.75 points (2.06%) from the day’s open and higher by 90.50 points (1.71%) from the previous cash close.

The cleanup session exhibited minor bullish activity, edging slightly higher to finish at 5395.75.

Market tone throughout the session leaned strongly bullish, underscored by significant buying interest after early volatility. Notably, volume was robust, with regular session trading reaching approximately 1.17 million contracts and full-day volume totaling nearly 1.67 million contracts.

The Market-on-Close (MOC) data highlighted a pronounced bullish sentiment, with a dollar imbalance at a striking 89.1% favoring buyers. Although symbol imbalance was less dramatic at 58.6%, the pronounced dollar imbalance helped sustain prices through the close.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for April 14, 2025:

SP: 31.72
NQ: 130.29
Dow: 193.41

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Friday, April 11, 2025
- NYSE Breadth: 81% Upside Volume
- Nasdaq Breadth: 65% Upside Volume
- Total Breadth: 70% Upside Volume
- NYSE Advance/Decline: 71% Advance
- Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
- Total Advance/Decline: 68% Advance
- NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 19 / 230
- Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 58 / 204
- NYSE TRIN: 0.54
- Nasdaq TRIN: 1.08

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

For the Week Ending April 11, 2025
- NYSE Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
- Nasdaq Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
- Total Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
- NYSE Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
- Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
- Total Advance/Decline: 53% Advance
- NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 27 / 1,475
- Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 94 / 2,013
- NYSE TRIN: 0.98
- Nasdaq TRIN: 1.05

Room Summaries:

Polaris Trading Group Summary Friday, April 11, 2025

Overview:
The session started quietly with price action hovering around the pivot, but the day turned into a strong afternoon rally, rewarding those who stayed patient. This marked the beginning of a new trading cycle after the prior one ended with a massive 588.25-point move. David guided the room through a slow morning and into a bullish breakout in the afternoon that hit target zones cleanly.

Morning Session:

Price opened near 5305 (PP) with no strong directional commitment.
David noted a seller lean early on, but reminded the room to stay flexible.
Economic data came in weak: University of Michigan sentiment dropped sharply and inflation expectations rose.
Action remained inside the value area; no breakout, and rhythm was described as “grinder.”
Buyers had a slight edge, but overall the morning was uneventful with limited opportunity.

Afternoon Session – Momentum and Follow-Through:

Bond rally acted as a key signal, leading David to anticipate a stock rally.
A “wedgie breakout” launched the market into a higher gear, breaking the midday range.
Price ripped higher, confirming earlier consolidation as an energy build-up phase.
Strong trade opportunities emerged with clear upside momentum and multiple bullish signals.
David called a run toward the 5405–5425 target zone, which was ultimately achieved.
Traders were advised to tighten stops near resistance, particularly around 5400.
The bulls dominated the afternoon, driving a “bull flag ripper” into the close.

Key Takeaways and Lessons:

Patience through a slow morning allowed traders to catch high-quality setups in the afternoon.
Recognizing signals like the bond rally helped anticipate the equity breakout.
Risk management was emphasized as David guided traders to tighten stops into resistance zones.
Staying aligned with market rhythm and being ready for the breakout paid off.

Closing Remarks:

The bulls pushed into prior highs near 5400, though struggled to fully clear and convert.
Closing action featured a battle, with David describing it as “GoinBIG” into the close.
The S&P 500 ended the week up 5.7%, the best week since November 2023.
Traders were encouraged to rest up, with more volatility expected on the horizon.

Final Note:
Today reinforced the power of staying engaged, reading the tape, and trusting the process. Those who waited for the right setup were rewarded with a textbook afternoon breakout.

DTG Room Preview – Monday, April 14, 2025

Tariffs & Trade Tensions:
- U.S. effective tariff rate rose from 22.5% (Apr 2) to 27% after new China levies.
- Mixed signals on electronics tariffs—initially excluded, then reportedly included, with Trump ultimately stating “no exceptions.”
- Trump signals upcoming tariff investigations into semiconductors and the entire electronics supply chain.
Macro Moves:
- Gold surged to ~3250; up from 3000 a month ago.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields saw the biggest weekly gain since Nov 2021.
- Dollar index (DXY) dropped below 100, lowest in 3+ years.
- A disconnect between rising yields and equity resilience sparks concern among strategists.
Policy Risk & Deadlines:
- July 9 is pivotal—marks both tariff implementation deadline and potential debt ceiling “X Date.”
- Treasury Sec. Bessent working on a historic $4–5 trillion debt ceiling increase; pushback expected from fiscal conservatives.
- Republican tax bill aims for early summer passage, compounding uncertainty.
Economic & Market Outlook:
- Policy uncertainty (tariffs, debt ceiling, tax bill) could stall corporate and consumer decisions and possibly trigger a recession.
- S&P 500 volatility highest since the COVID crisis; last week’s intraday range was widest since the GFC.
- Q1 earnings season kicks off, starting with GS and MTB reporting today.
Fed Speakers Today:
- Barkin (12:00pm ET), Waller (1:00pm), Harker (6:00pm), Bostic (7:40pm).
Market Technicals:
- ES 5-day average range: 412.75 points.
- Whale bias bullish into U.S. open despite lighter overnight volume.
- ES broke out of its intermediate-term downtrend overnight; key levels:
  - Support: 5401/91s, 4920/30s
  - Resistance: 5656/66s
  - Volatility may limit the durability of any level.

ES Week vs. Week

The bull/bear line for the ES today is 5362.25. This level is crucial in determining intraday sentiment. Currently, the ES is trading around 5450.75, positioning it above this critical level, signaling a bullish bias.

On the upside, initial resistance is at 5453.25. Should ES push higher, bulls will target 5635.50, today’s upper range target (pr). Continued strength above this level brings further resistance into focus at 5689.25, with a more substantial resistance level higher at 5892.75.

Below the current price, initial support lies at 5418.25, followed by a more significant support at the bull/bear line of 5362.25. A breach below this key level would shift sentiment to bearish, with bears targeting the next support levels at 5299.25 and subsequently the lower range target at 5206.00 (pL). Further bearish momentum below these supports could test the significantly lower boundary at 5217.25.

Maintain a bullish outlook while ES remains above 5362.25, but prepare for a potential sentiment shift if this critical line is breached to the downside.

NQ Week vs. Week

The bull/bear line for the NQ today is at 18,680.50. This remains a pivotal level; trading above this line indicates a bullish bias, and maintaining below suggests a bearish outlook.

Currently, NQ is trading around 19,043.25, positioning the market above the bull/bear line, indicating bullish sentiment at the moment. If this level continues to hold, expect the bullish momentum to remain intact, with potential targets at resistance levels near 19,752.50, our upper range target for today.

Immediate support below the current trading price is at 18,878.75, followed by a more substantial support level at the bull/bear line of 18,680.50. If the market breaks below this critical level, expect bearish pressure to intensify, potentially targeting the lower range target at 17,608.25.

Additional intermediate support is seen at 18,464.75 and further down at 18,067.00, if bearish momentum accelerates below the bull/bear line.

Overall, traders should remain bullish as long as NQ holds above 18,680.50, targeting the upside levels. However, caution is advised as a sustained break below this line could quickly shift the sentiment towards the bearish side.